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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 16, 2011 15:11:15 GMT
Leif, With the continuing on of the L&P Minimum, How likely is it we may see a day or two of a SFI of 200 or more this solar cycle? I'm thinking about the ability of the L&P spots to produce massive flares. Inquiring Hams would like to know. Mike AD6AA There can be large variations so SFI = 200 is possible, but they will be rare.
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 199
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Post by bradk on Mar 27, 2011 17:00:03 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard-
Even with this bump in sunspot numbers of late, the area seems to still be lagging based on eyeballing the spots. Is this just me tricking myself or is the area per spot still low, as L & P would predict.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Mar 27, 2011 18:18:51 GMT
Dr. Svalgaard- Even with this bump in sunspot numbers of late, the area seems to still be lagging based on eyeballing the spots. Is this just me tricking myself or is the area per spot still low, as L & P would predict. The spots/area are still weaker than what would be expected. A very objective measure is a comparison between SSN and F10.7 and that still shows that there are fewer spots than expected from F10.7 in 2011:
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Post by lsvalgaard on Apr 12, 2011 4:15:49 GMT
Livingston data through April 1st: Still looking good.
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Post by jcarels on Apr 12, 2011 7:32:15 GMT
Still looking bad I would say . Do you know which sunspot group was so dark and had that strong magnetic field? (if it was the same group)
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 199
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Post by bradk on Apr 12, 2011 9:13:32 GMT
Very nice, still looks like a minima coming even with the sunspot jump of last month, great to be living in a time when the sun looks to be on the road to new things, and we can answer what it means for our little blue ball.
Were they able to collect any data during the sunspot number increase? Might have been interesting to look at differences.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Apr 12, 2011 10:47:18 GMT
Still looking bad I would say . Do you know which sunspot group was so dark and had that strong magnetic field? (if it was the same group) Information is there. Takes a little while to organize...
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Post by jcarels on Apr 12, 2011 19:46:52 GMT
I'm pretty sure this is group 11158 on 15 or 16 februari. (ok, might have cheated a little bit ;D)
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Apr 20, 2011 5:37:58 GMT
I have been wondering for awhile now, (years) if when cycle 24 started ramping up if the L&P trend would reverse itself... Looking at the initial data years ago it seemed possible (to me anyway) that the L&P effect could just be an artifact of timing, starting the measurements at a time when cycle 23 was starting to wind down.
Now that we have (finally) seen some pretty good cycle 24 activity it looks (to me) like the trend is continuing. What an interesting thing to witness. (In slow motion yes...) I wonder if we will really see the end of sunspots in a few years, and what that will mean for our understanding of how the sun works... Now that it is starting to look like the L&P effect is for real, what does the future hold?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Apr 20, 2011 7:12:19 GMT
I have been wondering for awhile now, (years) if when cycle 24 started ramping up if the L&P trend would reverse itself... Looking at the initial data years ago it seemed possible (to me anyway) that the L&P effect could just be an artifact of timing, starting the measurements at a time when cycle 23 was starting to wind down. Now that we have (finally) seen some pretty good cycle 24 activity it looks (to me) like the trend is continuing. What an interesting thing to witness. (In slow motion yes...) I wonder if we will really see the end of sunspots in a few years, and what that will mean for our understanding of how the sun works... Now that it is starting to look like the L&P effect is for real, what does the future hold? A future with fewer visible spots is all. The dynamo will still run, there will still be a solar wind, we will still have cosmic ray modulation, still have aurorae, still have geomagnetic storms. These effects might be slightly subdued, but will not go away.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Apr 20, 2011 16:48:42 GMT
I was not suggesting that the sun was going to go out and we were all going to die. But I think that after the flurry of failed cycle 24 predictions, some were spectacularly wrong, that a lot of folks have to go back to the drawing board. Of course you, Dr. Svalgaard have been spot on! No drawing board for you. So, speaking of predictions Dr. Svalgaard... 1. What are your thoughts of where L&P is going, are most of the sunspots going to dry up within say two years after the cycle 24 maximum? I understand that magnetic activity will continue and that spotless plagues will be the rule. Is this the prediction? Is this what you believe will occur? 2. Is L&P the start of a grand minimum like Dalton, or Maunder? Or were they different? Will the L&P effect continue to strengthen? How long is it expected to last, will it affect cycle 25? Has a mechanism been identified?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Apr 20, 2011 17:31:07 GMT
I was not suggesting that the sun was going to go out and we were all going to die. But I think that after the flurry of failed cycle 24 predictions, some were spectacularly wrong, that a lot of folks have to go back to the drawing board. Of course you, Dr. Svalgaard have been spot on! No drawing board for you. So, speaking of predictions Dr. Svalgaard... 1. What are your thoughts of where L&P is going, are most of the sunspots going to dry up within say two years after the cycle 24 maximum? I understand that magnetic activity will continue and that spotless plagues will be the rule. Is this the prediction? Is this what you believe will occur? 2. Is L&P the start of a grand minimum like Dalton, or Maunder? Or were they different? Will the L&P effect continue to strengthen? How long is it expected to last, will it affect cycle 25? Has a mechanism been identified? About what I predict: www.leif.org/research/Predicting%20the%20Solar%20Cycle%20(SORCE%202010).pdf see slide 37 About L&P: don't know ! too early to be firm on this.
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Post by lsvalgaard on May 12, 2011 23:40:59 GMT
Livingston's latest [with data to 5th May]: Note that we omit the early scattered points and the distribution:
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Post by Bob k6tr on May 13, 2011 8:14:34 GMT
Anymore information from Wilcox about surges in Magnetic Field Strength at the Poles ? It looks like there is still is a sizable coronal hole in the South.
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Post by lsvalgaard on May 13, 2011 13:34:28 GMT
Anymore information from Wilcox about surges in Magnetic Field Strength at the Poles ? It looks like there is still is a sizable coronal hole in the South. The latest: The south polar fields are still there, but are declining. It is quite normal that there is a difference between north and south.
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