Post by mikehaseler on Aug 30, 2011 14:28:45 GMT
At the beginning of the summer, there were reports that some were suggesting the world was heading to a new Maunder minimum. I was wondering whether that prediction still holds true: whether there has been more evidence for or against and whether people have any thoughts about what it means in practice.
Let me say that whilst I've got an idea of what sunspots are, my idea of sunspot cycles is about that: they are cycles. And I presume the maunder minimum is the reduction in amplitude of the sunspot cycle rather than e.g. a change in periodicity of the cycles.
So, I don't really understand how anyone can predict an absence of the cycle except by the obvious fact that the cycle amplitude seems to have diminished.
So I have a few questions:
1. What is the likelihood of a reduced amplitude of the next cycle?
2. What about the one after?
3. What about the one after?
4. etc.
5. Or do they just completely disappear and there is no cycle? Or are they longer-flatter?
I presume that there are a host of "Maunder minimum like" events. So, e.g. whereas the Maunder minimum was 70 years, is it more likely that if there were another minimum it would be say 30 years? Or do all the minimums tend to be around 70 years?
I hope that gives the gist of what I'm interested in -- and thanks in advance for any help.
Let me say that whilst I've got an idea of what sunspots are, my idea of sunspot cycles is about that: they are cycles. And I presume the maunder minimum is the reduction in amplitude of the sunspot cycle rather than e.g. a change in periodicity of the cycles.
So, I don't really understand how anyone can predict an absence of the cycle except by the obvious fact that the cycle amplitude seems to have diminished.
So I have a few questions:
1. What is the likelihood of a reduced amplitude of the next cycle?
2. What about the one after?
3. What about the one after?
4. etc.
5. Or do they just completely disappear and there is no cycle? Or are they longer-flatter?
I presume that there are a host of "Maunder minimum like" events. So, e.g. whereas the Maunder minimum was 70 years, is it more likely that if there were another minimum it would be say 30 years? Or do all the minimums tend to be around 70 years?
I hope that gives the gist of what I'm interested in -- and thanks in advance for any help.
