|
Post by w7psk on Mar 15, 2011 23:43:02 GMT
Looks like a spot emerging out of the southern Hemisphere
|
|
|
Post by Bob k6tr on Mar 16, 2011 0:23:11 GMT
Looks like a spot emerging out of the southern Hemisphere Yep.....Pretty high lattitude also.
|
|
|
Post by w7psk on Mar 16, 2011 1:47:45 GMT
I dont think it will amount to much. 304s are both trending down.
|
|
|
Post by heather on Mar 16, 2011 3:17:02 GMT
af4ex thank you. I think i have a formula however as you have mentioned it's almost too big to calculate. My thinking is if I can take a standard formula such as rate*distance*time and add a couple of more i'm think i can get an approximation. Clearly that simple formula is not the actual one but I am starting to see when we have big M class flares as well as C class flares within a week Earth has a natural disaster somewhere. Just in the first two weeks we had a total of 3 M class flares (which I'm sure you saw), take these flares and then the natural disasters such as the earthquakes and the mass deaths of animals there has got to be a calculation. Maybe I have to work backwards but it's almost I can see it in my head I just don't know how to explain it. I am a Revenue Director and all I see are #'s but I need to brush up on the formulas vs $$...would you say string theory or chaos theory would be more appropriate to venture into. Any insight would be appreciated. I like to personally explain solar flares as 'farts' so I completely understand your analogy and it make sense to me. ;D
|
|
|
Post by twawki on Mar 16, 2011 4:13:21 GMT
whats the prediction for spots/flares over the next week?
|
|
|
Post by heather on Mar 16, 2011 4:38:32 GMT
|
|
|
Post by heather on Mar 16, 2011 4:40:11 GMT
twawki there has been a low M class flare that happened (it was a moderate one) today...could be interesting in the next few days.
|
|
|
Post by af4ex on Mar 16, 2011 12:13:30 GMT
heather> there has been a low M class flare that happened (it was a > moderate one) today There are several different classification schemes for flares. The NOAA A-B-C-M-X reports are based on x-ray output. Specifically, the detected radiance in the GOES 1-8 angstrom band is the official measure for classifying these events as "X-Ray Flares". The last M-class X-Ray Flare officially reported (which you can see below) happened on 14-Mar, peaking at 1952 UTC. www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/indices/events.htmlI don't see the flare you mentioned above. Of course, flares are large, chaotic explosions which emit energy all over the electromagnetic spectrum. In fact, the X-Ray output represents only a very tiny fraction of this energy. They can also be seen very clearly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and even down in the microwave RF spectrum (Nobeyama). But these observations can't be reported as "XRA" events (but they almost always coincide with the x-ray events). If you have a formula or theory for predicting solar events etc, you don't have to make a prediction and wait for it to happen. It's much easier, in the initial stages of a theory, to apply the formula to historical data, for which we already have the ground truth. Once you've established some accuracy in "predicting the past"then you can try it on the future (where you have to wait for the ground truth to happen). A mistake that amateurs often make (called 'cherry picking') is to look for cases which tend to bolster their theory, overlooking data which tends to refute it. This will give a false impression of accuracy. So don't be too selective in the data you use. Validate your theory with negative cases as well as positive. Also be careful about using 'disasters' as data, since they tend to be rather subjective. A large earthquake which happens in the middle of nowhere tends to be overlooked. So don't expect newspaper headlines to be an unbiased source of information. Go to the geophysicists who collect all of the data, regardless of its social impact. Hope that helps. :-| Attachments:
|
|
|
Post by af4ex on Mar 17, 2011 0:20:57 GMT
A strange looking (to me) flare at AR11169, with very broad C-class response in the x-ray spectrum. Note the very dense coronal loops and the bright region at the top of the loops. Has anyone seen anything like this before? Attachments:
|
|
|
Post by af4ex on Mar 17, 2011 0:38:03 GMT
... Here's another view of 1169 in 171 angstrom light. Shows the magnetic lines and loops better. Note the "wind-like" magnetic turbulence just before the flare. [edit: this is a "slow flare", i.e. long duration]
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Mar 17, 2011 1:41:18 GMT
A strange looking (to me) flare at AR11169, with very broad C-class response in the x-ray spectrum. Note the very dense coronal loops and the bright region at the top of the loops. Has anyone seen anything like this before? yes, such 'slow' flares happen from time to time. Here is an example [albeit of less magnitude]: hirweb.nict.go.jp/dimages/gxr1day/20101208.gif
|
|
|
Post by af4ex on Mar 17, 2011 1:52:47 GMT
@leif > yes, such 'slow' flares happen from time to time.
What's going on at the top of the those loops? Looks like a lot of energy being spawned out of "thin plasma".
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Mar 17, 2011 2:53:49 GMT
@leif > yes, such 'slow' flares happen from time to time. What's going on at the top of the those loops? Looks like a lot of energy being spawned out of "thin plasma". Reconnection further out from the surface must be accelerating particles sunwards where they crash into the material in the loops heating it.
|
|
|
Post by af4ex on Mar 17, 2011 3:01:09 GMT
@leif > ... accelerating particles sunwards where they crash > into the material in the loops heating it.
In other words, energetic particles precipitating into the magnetic field loops, like auroral displays on Earth?
|
|
|
Post by lsvalgaard on Mar 17, 2011 4:02:26 GMT
@leif > ... accelerating particles sunwards where they crash > into the material in the loops heating it. In other words, energetic particles precipitating into the magnetic field loops, like auroral displays on Earth? close enough, yes
|
|