|
Post by woodstove on Oct 28, 2009 22:33:01 GMT
Theory: Recurving, late-season tropical cyclones in the western Pacific have lifted more heat toward the Barents Strait than typical for the time of year.
|
|
|
Post by hunter on Oct 28, 2009 23:30:59 GMT
I think that between sensor failures, and dueling algorithms, we can relax about ice extent. It has trended up, and our AGW friends are not able to sell their redefinition of ice extent into ice volume. It is has been well established in history that Arctic ice is very dynamic. We do not need to fall into the AGW alarmist trap of worrying about every k2 of ice. The ice has been expanding and receding in the Arctic for literally millions of years, and shows no signs of changing. The AGW Community has had fun projecting fear into this for a few years, but even the high priests of hype in Britain are pulling back from calling for ice Arctic. I think we will see more and thicker ice than last year when the extent reaches its max in a few months. I think next year's minimum will be larger than this year's.
|
|
|
Post by matt on Oct 28, 2009 23:48:04 GMT
I think we will see more and thicker ice than last year when the extent reaches its max in a few months. I think next year's minimum will be larger than this year's. What do you think the JAXA maximum might come out to? 0-13, 13.1-13.5, 13.6-14, 14.1-14.5, 14.6-15, 15.1-15.5, 15.6+? I'll say 13.1-13.5.
|
|
|
Post by matt on Oct 29, 2009 0:30:52 GMT
|
|
|
Post by magellan on Oct 29, 2009 1:10:45 GMT
I think that between sensor failures, and dueling algorithms, we can relax about ice extent. It has trended up, and our AGW friends are not able to sell their redefinition of ice extent into ice volume. It is has been well established in history that Arctic ice is very dynamic. We do not need to fall into the AGW alarmist trap of worrying about every k2 of ice. The ice has been expanding and receding in the Arctic for literally millions of years, and shows no signs of changing. The AGW Community has had fun projecting fear into this for a few years, but even the high priests of hype in Britain are pulling back from calling for ice Arctic. I think we will see more and thicker ice than last year when the extent reaches its max in a few months. I think next year's minimum will be larger than this year's. You mean the history of planet Earth precedes 1979?
|
|
|
Post by woodstove on Oct 29, 2009 16:23:58 GMT
Sorry, are you questioning that tropical cyclones carry heat poleward? My suggestion was merely that this year's systems were occuring a little later than usual, recurving across the top of the North Pacific with most of their energy still intact (again, slightly more than usual), and perhaps contributing to the late-ish refreeze near Barrow. As for the "negative" temp anomaly in the Pacific.... um, no.
|
|
|
Post by matt on Oct 29, 2009 17:31:50 GMT
As for the "negative" temp anomaly in the Pacific.... um, no. I posted the Sept temp anomaly map. Have you got something more recent or reliable? TIA for posting it.
|
|
|
Post by matt on Oct 29, 2009 18:08:32 GMT
Sorry, are you questioning that tropical cyclones carry heat poleward? No, I'm saying they carry heat up. It spreads with the Hadley cells from there. How fast does some of that heat get to the poles? I dunno. I think your explanation is plausible.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Oct 30, 2009 0:23:51 GMT
Sorry, are you questioning that tropical cyclones carry heat poleward? No, I'm saying they carry heat up. It spreads with the Hadley cells from there. How fast does some of that heat get to the poles? I dunno. I think your explanation is plausible. Well the Hadley cells are circulation to mid-latitudes where the circulation returns to the surface the Ferrel cells are the next set of cells that then interface with the polar cells and polar vortices. Its not a simple one step circulation in the troposphere. The stratosphere is a little more simple although there are gravity and Kelvin waves running and breaking along the tropopause. Or - slightly more stylized
|
|
|
Post by spaceman on Oct 30, 2009 2:21:10 GMT
Whatever happened to the big hurricanes that were supposed to be hitting the US? I remember quite well AL standing on stage with a pic of Katrina taking up the gulf. How quickly the subject changed to ice. How quickly the hype over more terrible storms on the way if we don't curb GW was forgotten. What happened to those big storms? If sea ice grows, how are they going to explain that in context of co2 warming? After all we are adding more co2 to the atmosphere year after year. And with this runaway feedback system in place, wouldn't that be impossible?
Am I mistaken that the sensors are down? ( or not recording correctly) If so, how ironic in a cold year. I guess they'll come back on line when it gets warmer.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Oct 30, 2009 2:55:35 GMT
Whatever happened to the big hurricanes that were supposed to be hitting the US? I remember quite well AL standing on stage with a pic of Katrina taking up the gulf. How quickly the subject changed to ice. How quickly the hype over more terrible storms on the way if we don't curb GW was forgotten. What happened to those big storms? If sea ice grows, how are they going to explain that in context of co2 warming? After all we are adding more co2 to the atmosphere year after year. And with this runaway feedback system in place, wouldn't that be impossible? Am I mistaken that the sensors are down? ( or not recording correctly) If so, how ironic in a cold year. I guess they'll come back on line when it gets warmer. co2 is having a neglible effect on the temps etc in the Arctic. It is the arosols that are driving the warmth there. I don't think anyone believes that co2 is a cause of the current arctic temps..or if they are they are way behind on their reading.
|
|
N9AAT
Level 3 Rank
DON'T PANIC
Posts: 153
|
Post by N9AAT on Oct 30, 2009 17:27:58 GMT
I kinda hate bringing this up again 'cause it makes me seem like a man with a tamborene, but could a lower stratosphere not also have an affect on currents? I know everyone has seen this but ... news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7794834.stm
|
|
|
Post by graywolf on Oct 30, 2009 21:34:18 GMT
From Reuters;
12:37 October 30th, 2009 Panic at 2 a.m. — the search for multiyear Arctic ice Post a commentPosted by: David Ljunggren Tags: Environment, Canada Arctic ice, global greenhouse, global warming, oceans When you’re looking for shrinking packs of multiyear ice in the Arctic Ocean, bizarre things tend to happen. Top Canadian scientist David Barber knows this first hand, as he explained in a presentation in Parliament on Wednesday. Barber said that to all extents and purposes the multiyear ice in the Arctic had already vanished, which could open up the region to shipping and mineral exploitation.
Barber, who holds Canada’s Research Chair in Arctic System Science at the University of Manitoba, boarded the icebreaker Amundsen last month and steamed north from the Arctic port of Tuktoyaktuk to look for the Beaufort Sea pack ice, the “thickest, hardest, meanest, multi year sea we have left in the northern hemisphere”.
According to up-to-date satellite maps provided by the Canadian Ice Service, the Amundsen should have started ploughing into progressively thicker ice almost from the start. Soon after the ship set sail Barber went to bed, and then woke up at 2 am in a panic.
“I looked on my screen and we’re doing 13 knots. We do 13.7 knots in open water and we’re right here (in an area where the maps show there should be thick ice) somewhere, doing 13 knots,” he said.
“And I just panicked, I thought ‘Oh My God, Stephane the captain is not on the bridge and the first officer has gone crazy, he’s driving this thing way too fast through the sea ice’. So I go up on the bridge and talk to the guys and they say “There is no ice here’.”
The ship sailed for hundreds of miles, first to the north and then eastwards, “trying to find multiyear sea ice that would even slow us down”. All they found was so-called rotten ice — a thin layer covering small chunks of multiyear ice.
Eventually the ship found a 10-mile floe of “nice typical traditional Beaufort Sea pack ice” close to the Canadian Arctic archipelago. As they were about to attach the ship to the floe Barber looked out and saw a crack open up right in front of him. “I went ‘Wow, that’s kind of weird’.” Even weirder, he and a colleague then saw the ice move up and down as a swell hit it.
“And as we watched, literally, without any exaggeration, the entire multi-year floe broke up in five minutes,” he said. Barber blames waves which started off the north coast of Siberia and then rolled across the Arctic Ocean, pushed along by a low pressure system and unencumbered by rotten ice.
No wonder he says that “I’ve never seen anything like this in my 30 years of working in the high Arctic”.
And there was me thinking we could trust the Can. Ice service maps........
|
|
|
Post by tobyglyn on Oct 30, 2009 23:52:04 GMT
Probably already been noted but the US Weather Bureau reported that this Arctic warming is unprecedented.
“THE ARCTIC OCEAN IS WARMING UP, ICEBERGS ARE GROWING SCARCER AND IN SOME PLACES THE SEALS ARE FINDING THE WATER TOO HOT. REPORTS ALL POINT TO A RADICAL CHANGE IN CLIMATE CONDITIONS AND HITHERTO UNHEARD-OF TEMPERATURES IN THE ARCTIC ZONE. EXPEDITIONS REPORT THAT SCARCELY ANY ICE HAS BEEN MET WITH AS FAR NORTH AS 81 DEGREES 29 MINUTES. GREAT MASSES OF ICE HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY MORAINES OF EARTH AND STONES, WHILE AT MANY POINTS WELL KNOWN GLACIERS HAVE ENTIRELY DISAPPEARED.”
Although that was in 1922.....
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Oct 31, 2009 6:32:23 GMT
From Reuters; 12:37 October 30th, 2009 Panic at 2 a.m. — the search for multiyear Arctic ice Post a commentPosted by: David Ljunggren Tags: Environment, Canada Arctic ice, global greenhouse, global warming, oceans When you’re looking for shrinking packs of multiyear ice in the Arctic Ocean, bizarre things tend to happen. Top Canadian scientist David Barber knows this first hand, as he explained in a presentation in Parliament on Wednesday. Barber said that to all extents and purposes the multiyear ice in the Arctic had already vanished, which could open up the region to shipping and mineral exploitation. Barber, who holds Canada’s Research Chair in Arctic System Science at the University of Manitoba, boarded the icebreaker Amundsen last month and steamed north from the Arctic port of Tuktoyaktuk to look for the Beaufort Sea pack ice, the “thickest, hardest, meanest, multi year sea we have left in the northern hemisphere”. According to up-to-date satellite maps provided by the Canadian Ice Service, the Amundsen should have started ploughing into progressively thicker ice almost from the start. Soon after the ship set sail Barber went to bed, and then woke up at 2 am in a panic. “I looked on my screen and we’re doing 13 knots. We do 13.7 knots in open water and we’re right here (in an area where the maps show there should be thick ice) somewhere, doing 13 knots,” he said. “And I just panicked, I thought ‘Oh My God, Stephane the captain is not on the bridge and the first officer has gone crazy, he’s driving this thing way too fast through the sea ice’. So I go up on the bridge and talk to the guys and they say “There is no ice here’.” The ship sailed for hundreds of miles, first to the north and then eastwards, “trying to find multiyear sea ice that would even slow us down”. All they found was so-called rotten ice — a thin layer covering small chunks of multiyear ice. Eventually the ship found a 10-mile floe of “nice typical traditional Beaufort Sea pack ice” close to the Canadian Arctic archipelago. As they were about to attach the ship to the floe Barber looked out and saw a crack open up right in front of him. “I went ‘Wow, that’s kind of weird’.” Even weirder, he and a colleague then saw the ice move up and down as a swell hit it. “And as we watched, literally, without any exaggeration, the entire multi-year floe broke up in five minutes,” he said. Barber blames waves which started off the north coast of Siberia and then rolled across the Arctic Ocean, pushed along by a low pressure system and unencumbered by rotten ice. No wonder he says that “I’ve never seen anything like this in my 30 years of working in the high Arctic”. And there was me thinking we could trust the Can. Ice service maps........ That looks like the usual alarmist crap to me, but what would I know from sunny Queensland, Australia. "Beautiful one day, perfect the next!" Ljunggren appears to be from the top echelon of climate alarmists; check out this link: www.carboncapturereport.org/cgi-bin/biodb?PROJID=3&mode=viewpersonname&name=david_ljunggrenLjunggren wrote an article on the Australian Super-Alarmist Tim Flannery's visit to Canada. Flannery has probably gone to Canada because of the failure of all of his dire predictions for Australia. With luck, they might keep him over there. blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/column_flannery_scares_than_warming/More ramping up to Copenhagen, I suspect.
|
|