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Post by aj1983 on Feb 25, 2010 12:58:40 GMT
They might use slightly different definitions of "sea ice extent" but I haven't checked.
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Post by hairball on Feb 25, 2010 13:14:24 GMT
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Post by magellan on Feb 25, 2010 17:36:49 GMT
As suspected, there apparently was something not right. Unfortunately I didn't save the the previous graph.
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royd
New Member
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Post by royd on Feb 28, 2010 19:07:14 GMT
Despite the lack of updating from IJIC-JAXA website, it looks like the ice extent is staying fairly stable (at least from independent measurements) and should be approaching a maximum in the next two to three weeks. It seems most likely that ice extent will be in the 14.0 to 14.5 million km^2 range.
Overforecasting ice extent/cold weather seems to occur frequently in these SolarCycle 24 surveys. This occurred for 2009 ice minimum extent, 2009 El Nino Forecast, and 2009 Southern Hemisphere Winter.
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gfw
Level 2 Rank
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Post by gfw on Feb 28, 2010 22:52:14 GMT
Yes it does Royd, yes it does.
For the record, I started with my vote in the 14-14.25 bucket, shifted one bucket down with a week before the poll closed, then shifted back just before it closed. There has been one day in the Jaxa data so far over 14. I hope they quickly sort out whatever is holding them up - however, the NSIDC shows nearly unchanging extent for the period that Jaxa has not been reporting. So I'd be more surprised by it going over 14.25 than I would be if it turned out the one day over 14 was the max. However, as you point out, the max could be two weeks in the future, so we can't really call it for another 3 weeks or more.
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Post by hairball on Mar 1, 2010 0:20:56 GMT
I wouldn't write off a large growth in extent just yet. The last time the Arctic Oscillation was strongly negative over the New Year was in 2003 and then the extent grew through to mid March. If the AO and circumpolar winds flatten as expected just as the Sun peeps his head over the horizon it could keep growing even later this year. Not that ice pack breaking up and spreading out to 15% concentration really makes a whole heap of difference anyhows (Top right is 3 month running mean of AO down to -3.)
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Post by 6waldog on Mar 1, 2010 19:50:37 GMT
This time of year I like to pay attention to ice formation in the Barents area. As the Norwegien current cools throughout the winter season it seems this is a time of year where there is more ice growth than expected. The west coast of Norway and Svalbard has been benefiting from the warmer water all season, but it has appeared to me the last several seasons we have a short burst of ice growth because the Norwegian current is finally losing its influence to the cold. oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/atlantic/norwegian.htmlTromso and Hammerfest on the West coast of Norway always appear warmer on my charts compared to the areas further inland, and when compared to Murmansk which is around the tip of Norway and which doesn't receive much influence from the Norwegian Current. They were all colder last week, but in the last hour Tromso was 10F, Hammerfest was 19F and Longyearbyen on Svalbard was 3F. None of my data shows the temps on Novaya Zemlya, which would be interesting this time of year. The Russians never play nice and hand out the data from anywhere around their Nucs. Last year the open area around Novaya Zemlya froze for a short period right at the end of the season. It appears to be headed that way again. It will be interesting to see if that occurs again. Thanks
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Post by woodstove on Mar 2, 2010 17:34:53 GMT
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gfw
Level 2 Rank
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Post by gfw on Mar 2, 2010 20:08:48 GMT
Hairball and 6waldog - good points. Indeed a final growth spurt, either from spreading out, or a temporary freezing of the (currently) anomalously ice-free region between Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya is certainly possible.
Now that the Jaxa data has been brought up to date, it seems to have crossed 14M three times, pulling back twice. A little more growth seems likely in the next two weeks.
Looking towards the melt season, it will be interesting to see how Davis Straight and Baffin Bay progress. If that loop of warm water from the gulf stream is still pushing into Davis Straight, melt there could be well ahead of schedule.
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 2, 2010 23:17:52 GMT
Hairball and 6waldog - good points. Indeed a final growth spurt, either from spreading out, or a temporary freezing of the (currently) anomalously ice-free region between Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya is certainly possible. Now that the Jaxa data has been brought up to date, it seems to have crossed 14M three times, pulling back twice. A little more growth seems likely in the next two weeks. Looking towards the melt season, it will be interesting to see how Davis Straight and Baffin Bay progress. If that loop of warm water from the gulf stream is still pushing into Davis Straight, melt there could be well ahead of schedule. don't pin anything on the Gulf Stream doing much positive... Its very cold in Florida
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gfw
Level 2 Rank
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Post by gfw on Mar 3, 2010 23:17:00 GMT
You're right, that warm loop seems to have given up. Do you know a good site for getting vector maps of flow superimposed on color maps of temp?
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 4, 2010 1:36:15 GMT
You're right, that warm loop seems to have given up. Do you know a good site for getting vector maps of flow superimposed on color maps of temp? I got the image from the NCEP site - you could do worse than to go to polar.ncep.noaa.gov/mmab/products.html and hunt around UniSys also has a site with similar products. weather.unisys.com/archive/
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Post by jimcripwell on Mar 4, 2010 16:07:48 GMT
NSIDC has published it's latest monthly report; 3 March 2010.
In it I find "Second, the AO has a strong effect on Arctic sea ice motion. The pattern of winds associated with a strongly negative AO tends to reduce export of ice out of the Arctic through the Fram Strait. This helps keep more of the older, thicker ice within the Arctic. While little old ice remains, sequestering what is left may help keep the September extent from dropping as low as it did in the last few years. Much will depend on the weather patterns that set up this spring and summer."
In the past, NSIDC has tended to spin it's reports in favor of AGW. I had hoped that this might change in the light of Climategate. I certainly find this statement encouraging it this regard.
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Post by 6waldog on Mar 4, 2010 18:17:28 GMT
Observations 'n Stuff - in no particular order.
The jumps in coverage from Jaxa the last two days are interesting. I don't know how much was catch up for the days of limited date though. I'm thinking that if we get another large increase tonight it will show we are still in a strong freezing pattern.
Sea of Okhosk area is very cold today. Over closer to the Bering, Anadyr was -29F in the last hour. Magadan was -36F. Brr.
With only a short time left in the St. Lawrence area I'm looking forward to checking the melt this year as it heads up the West side of Greenland.
My boy and I have a side bet whether Resolute will be able to be resupplied by boat this year. I'm yes, he's no. It will give us something to track as we head into the summer.
Cheers,
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Post by woodstove on Mar 4, 2010 19:05:58 GMT
Observations 'n Stuff - in no particular order. The jumps in coverage from Jaxa the last two days are interesting. I don't know how much was catch up for the days of limited date though. I'm thinking that if we get another large increase tonight it will show we are still in a strong freezing pattern. Sea of Okhosk area is very cold today. Over closer to the Bering, Anadyr was -29F in the last hour. Magadan was -36F. Brr. With only a short time left in the St. Lawrence area I'm looking forward to checking the melt this year as it heads up the West side of Greenland. My boy and I have a side bet whether Resolute will be able to be resupplied by boat this year. I'm yes, he's no. It will give us something to track as we head into the summer. Cheers, Good luck finding out about the resupply. I spent much time over the course of two-plus weeks, with dozens of phone calls and e-mails, etc., dealing with Canadian Ice Service folks last summer to find out the same thing. They appeared wary of dealing with a known skeptic ;D Just doing their job of course.
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