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Post by hairball on Jan 29, 2010 11:10:03 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Jan 29, 2010 11:53:55 GMT
"YMMV" ? You Mark My Vords?
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Post by hairball on Jan 29, 2010 11:56:51 GMT
Your mileage my vary ("just my opinion")
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Post by Ratty on Jan 29, 2010 12:02:34 GMT
Your mileage my vary ("just my opinion") Well, you wrote it so you should know .... How's the toothache?
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Post by hairball on Jan 29, 2010 12:12:17 GMT
Awful, thanks, I had a wisdom tooth taken out without anaesthetic once, I loathe to see a dentist again. I think this NOAA study is the case cracker and it's no coincidence it came out after Jokenhagen and during AGW's current troubles. If NOAA's saying clouds are responsible then Svensmark is at least partially correct, though how the Sun or GCR's could make any difference to water vapour at that altitude is a logic chopper. Is methane a larger target for GCR's than the rest of the atmosphere mebbe? Actually, GCR's forming the water into low level clouds would prevent it from reaching that altitude I guess
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Post by magellan on Jan 29, 2010 13:23:31 GMT
hairball, the NOAA article is why I quote Spencer so often; clouds. This is the elephant in the room that every warmer wants to pretend doesn't exist. In fact they become quite defensive when its pointed out the actual observational data does not support the CO2 meme. Clouds Dominate CO2 as a Climate Driver Since 2000
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Post by hairball on Jan 29, 2010 13:55:15 GMT
Um, for the life of me I can't find where I saw it actually mention clouds, I have a really bad headache. Spencer has a post up dates 27th, but I think it just appeared in the last few hours. Gonna change the title of this until I work out if it was my imagination.
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Post by aj1983 on Jan 29, 2010 14:11:14 GMT
Um, for the life of me I can't find where I saw it actually mention clouds, I have a really bad headache. Spencer has a post up dates 27th, but I think it just appeared in the last few hours. Gonna change the title of this until I work out if it was my imagination. Clouds are, and have been the largest uncertainty in the AGW theory, as noted by AGW scientists... There is a possibility that clouds have a strong negative feedback (it has a slightly negative feedback in climate models), but most atmospheric scientists agree that there is only a small chance that clouds have a net strong negative feedback. However, this is an area of ongoing research, and subject to discussion.
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Post by trbixler on Jan 29, 2010 14:52:45 GMT
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Post by hairball on Jan 29, 2010 15:14:41 GMT
Ah, found it, it was in the graphic :\ I gotta go to work after no sleep and with a headache and toothache, take care all. I'd really love to know how the whole paper (doesn't) manage explain things without reference to Svensmark.
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Post by steve on Jan 29, 2010 15:21:44 GMT
The discussion about stratospheric water vapour is very different to the normal discussions involving clouds (which usually consider convective clouds in the troposphere).
I've had a look at the paper, and they are talking about changes of only 0.5-1 ppm of water vapour in the stratosphere! Apparently a 1 ppm change here amounts to about 0.1W/m^2 of forcing.
Would be interesting if this finding were reinforced. Certainly would be helpful in resolving the "travesty". However, one has to give these new findings time to be analysed further.
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Post by steve on Jan 29, 2010 15:23:02 GMT
Ah, found it, it was in the graphic :\ I gotta go to work after no sleep and with a headache and toothache, take care all. I'd really love to know how the whole paper (doesn't) manage explain things without reference to Svensmark. Don't think there is anything in Svensmark's theory about getting water vapour into the stratosphere is there?
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Post by trbixler on Jan 29, 2010 16:50:06 GMT
more news on topic WSJ "The overall picture is still far from complete. Water vapor's role may be important, but "it doesn't rule out other contributing factors," such as changes in ocean currents and solar activity, says Dr. Solomon. Nor do current warming models fully account for all the complexities of water-vapor shifts in the stratosphere. And scientists have yet to pin down why cold point temperatures in the tropics fell in the past decade." online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704194504575031404275769886.html
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Post by hairball on Jan 29, 2010 20:54:30 GMT
Well, I'm probably wrong, but since Svensmark predicts high GCR flux forming clouds at lower altitudes I figure there'd be less vapour to reach the stratosphere. I'm talking through my hat aren't I? The forcing in Solomon's paper is impressive if true whatever causes it, my (usually wrong) gut feeling is that its solar rather than a feedback. --- No, I can't get my head around this without some sleep. The climatologists seem to be saying they don't have a clue what it is. I can't even work out if it's some kind of inversion layer or cloud or lack of cloud or nothing to do with cloud. Wouldn't this have shown up on CERES, or is it included in that graph Spencer links?
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Post by glc on Jan 30, 2010 0:48:34 GMT
Well, I'm probably wrong, but since Svensmark predicts high GCR flux forming clouds at lower altitudes I figure there'd be less vapour to reach the stratosphere. I'm talking through my hat aren't I? The forcing in Solomon's paper is impressive if true whatever causes it, my (usually wrong) gut feeling is that its solar rather than a feedback. --- No, I can't get my head around this without some sleep. The climatologists seem to be saying they don't have a clue what it is. I can't even work out if it's some kind of inversion layer or cloud or lack of cloud or nothing to do with cloud. Wouldn't this have shown up on CERES, or is it included in that graph Spencer links? Just to add a bit more to the confusion. There were a couple of events in the 1980s and 1990s that had a definite impact on the stratosphere, i.e. the El Chichon eruption in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991. We've had nothing like either of them since but, in all honesty, I can't see how they would affect the wv content of the stratosphere.
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