Post by magellan on May 12, 2010 16:27:40 GMT
May 12, 2010 7:18:41 GMT glc said:
Nope, been there, done that.
No you haven't. At no point did you explain why the SSW should increase troposphere anomalies. I vaguely remember Ed Berry expressing an opinion on the issue at the time. The relevant post is here.
weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/2009/02/deep-in-strange-brew-of-la-nina-and-ssw.html
Now I must confess I know very little about Ed Berry but he seems to be held in high regard by posters on this blog. This is from an exchange with another poster:
Harold Ambler said...
Hi Ed. I have read that the principal effect on weather from an SSW is a displacement of the polar jet. The explanation went that said displacement then led to cold weather in the American Northeast and other locations (among them Europe). That makes sense to me, and it looks like you take the same view.
On the other hand, and it's a big other hand, there has been a very impressive spike of lower troposphere temperatures in the last 5 weeks almost exactly contemporaneous with the SSW. Logic says that the tropospheric spike could not have been induced by the SSW, and yet they happen to be happening at the same time...
Have you reflected on this? Do you have any thoughts to share?
Ed Berry responds as follows:
For the SSW, cooling of the polar troposphere is completely consistent.
If anything, the SSW should result in COOLING of the polar troposphere - though, on a global scale, this is not likely to amount to much. Your logic and understanding is flawed. The SSW was not responsible for the rise in tropospheric anomalies in 2009. It was, though, probably responsible for cold conditions across Europe and N. America in early 2009.
Now that you're in CYA mode after being caught with your pants down, no amount of back
When it is pointed out vast swaths of land mass are cold yet the "global" temperature rises due to smaller very warm areas, you are always quick to repeat the mantra it is "global" temperatures that matter.
I have several references concerning SSW, what it is and how it affects weather. There was nothing spectacular about what I thought would occur in the ensuing months after this "unprecedented" SSW event (records go back only to about 1952 or so IIRC). There are multiple processes occurring during a large SSW; changes in ozone, tropical temps (La Nina), wind patterns etc. etc..... all connected, but there is still much not well understood. That you didn't bother checking it out before telling me I as all wet is really irrelevant at this point.
You said SSW does not affect the troposphere. It does. You said it has a negligible effect on surface temperatures outside the Arctic. Wrong again.
It is what it is. Get over it. You said no cooling materialized. It did.
You said all your predictions are "spot on". They aren't.
One of many articles on the 2009 "unprecedented" SSW. For the rest, that is up to you to find them.
earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=36972
I'm done discussing this matter.