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Post by dontgetoutmuch on May 3, 2013 16:45:43 GMT
We are all pretty much wiggle watchers. The weather from year to year changes, but true climate change is, I think, not something humans live long enouph to appreciate. I wish we had better proxies. I wish I could trust existing proxies. But every single time I see a proxy, I see YAD061, and I just cannot get beyond that.
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Post by sigurdur on May 3, 2013 20:24:59 GMT
dontgetoutmuch:
The Sargasso Sea proxy is prob the best in the world over time.
It actually covers a very large area of the Atlantic Ocean because of the currents, etc.
A wide ranging proxy which deserves much further examination.
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Post by cuttydyer on May 4, 2013 5:13:33 GMT
dontgetoutmuch: The Sargasso Sea proxy is prob the best in the world over time. It actually covers a very large area of the Atlantic Ocean because of the currents, etc. A wide ranging proxy which deserves much further examination. Sig, Do you have a link to Sargasso data that can be posted?
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Post by karlox on May 5, 2013 9:22:38 GMT
A local hint was on Spain´s news about current anchovy fishing campaign in north Cantabric Sea (Atlantic portion between Spain and France). Reports from fishermen were lower captures than expected and that allowed by regulations, due to cooler ocean waters and unusually strong currents in the area. (Anchovy fishing is a close to coast activity up to aroun 40 miles offshore to my knowledge). Yet anchovy was ranked first quality and was rapidly sold out in harbour´s nearby markets (around 6 euros by kg)
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Post by douglavers on May 13, 2013 1:51:58 GMT
"I find the huge blob of very cold water in the middle of the Atlantic fascinating, from Karlox's graphic. Does this mean that the Gulf Stream [aca N Atlantic Drift] has more or less shut down? If so, consequences for Europe [and elsewhere] will be noticeable." That is what I said on May 1st. Looking at the latest SST, if anything the "blob" of cold in the Atlantic has increased in size, and the Gulf of Mexico looks really cold. weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gifThis has to have really interesting implications for Europe's temperature over the next few months. Also, much of that heat eventually disperses into the Arctic somewhere North of Norway. We might even see much REDUCED ice melting this Summer.
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Post by cuttydyer on May 13, 2013 8:50:32 GMT
"I find the huge blob of very cold water in the middle of the Atlantic fascinating, from Karlox's graphic. Does this mean that the Gulf Stream [aca N Atlantic Drift] has more or less shut down? If so, consequences for Europe [and elsewhere] will be noticeable." That is what I said on May 1st. Looking at the latest SST, if anything the "blob" of cold in the Atlantic has increased in size, and the Gulf of Mexico looks really cold. weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gifThis has to have really interesting implications for Europe's temperature over the next few months. Also, much of that heat eventually disperses into the Arctic somewhere North of Norway. We might even see much REDUCED ice melting this Summer. Hi Doug, Rather than shut down, has the North Atlantic Current drifted to the West? Nautonnier made the very interesting observation that this possible drift to the West may be due to the current erratic Jet Stream - as the North Atlantic current is no longer subjected to persistent strong westerlies.
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Post by nautonnier on May 13, 2013 10:16:13 GMT
I would also add that the Gulf of Mexico - the source of the hot water for the Gulf Stream is a lot colder than normal. The sea temperature around the Florida coast is definitely cool possibly due to cloudier weather as fronts are so far South. Normally here in central FL the fronts retreat further North and run through the center of the US. Now they are a regularly (if weakly) swinging through the gulf and Florida. This change in pattern could also explain the huge drop in the number of tornadoes this year there is no big temperature gradient to drive them.
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Post by douglavers on May 13, 2013 12:50:51 GMT
I appreciate the comments from Cuttydyer and Nautonnier.
However, I don't really see how the Gulf Stream movement could have just drifted Westwards - the blob of coldish water to the direct NE of Florida does not look like a powerful warm water current on the sea surface!
Presumably also, the Gulf Stream [aca North Atlantic Drift] is presumably driven by a combination of strong prevailing Westerly winds in the Atlantic, and a large pool of very warm water trying to "escape" from the Gulf of Mexico.
Either way, unless it resumes soon, terawatts of heat are no longer going to reach the North East Atlantic.
If this system does not fix itself by November, Europe is going to end up substantially cooler.
They had better start studying the climate of Anchorage!!
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on May 13, 2013 16:47:06 GMT
Today in Anchorage it is currently officially 43f and drizzling. At my office in downtown Anchorage it is 33f and drizzling. It was snowing heavily at my house when I left for work this morning. Spring is very, very late this year. Our tulips and other bulbs are just starting to peek out in sunny sections. It is already one of the top 5 latest breakups in the past 100 years, and breakup won't be today. Bearing Sea Ice is over 300% above normal for this time of year. If it gets any warmer we are going to be iced up year round...
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Post by nautonnier on May 13, 2013 20:07:51 GMT
I appreciate the comments from Cuttydyer and Nautonnier. However, I don't really see how the Gulf Stream movement could have just drifted Westwards - the blob of coldish water to the direct NE of Florida does not look like a powerful warm water current on the sea surface! Presumably also, the Gulf Stream [aca North Atlantic Drift] is presumably driven by a combination of strong prevailing Westerly winds in the Atlantic, and a large pool of very warm water trying to "escape" from the Gulf of Mexico. Either way, unless it resumes soon, terawatts of heat are no longer going to reach the North East Atlantic. If this system does not fix itself by November, Europe is going to end up substantially cooler. They had better start studying the climate of Anchorage!! To add to those drivers are the thermo-haline current a convective current driven by dense colder water sinking opposed by the less dense saline water wanting to stay near the surface. Then as the current moves North it is affected by the Coriolis force - the slower the movement the less the Coriolis effect. Then the current itself can also set up Rossby waves that propagate vertically and are also affected by the topography of the sea bottom. It is more of a turbulent flow than a 'stream' despite its name.
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Post by douglavers on May 14, 2013 0:35:31 GMT
Continuing the theme [as a complete amateur!], it seems to me that all that very cold water in G of M and NE of Florida is going to substantially suppress hurricane activity.
The latter run on hot surface water, the hotter the better, and do not function properly below about 27 degC.
I also read somewhere that they are really important in helping transport heat Northwards.
Yet another mechanism suppressing Northwards heat transfer from the Tropics?
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Post by nautonnier on May 14, 2013 20:15:04 GMT
Continuing the theme [as a complete amateur!], it seems to me that all that very cold water in G of M and NE of Florida is going to substantially suppress hurricane activity. The latter run on hot surface water, the hotter the better, and do not function properly below about 27 degC. I also read somewhere that they are really important in helping transport heat Northwards. Yet another mechanism suppressing Northwards heat transfer from the Tropics? Remember that the anomaly map shows the SST is cooler than normal - and in the sea along the coast here at 78F the sea is a lot colder than normal - although I have no doubt that if a lake in North Dakota was that warm it would be almost a hot tub So here is the actual SST from Unisys You will see that the Atlantic is still 'warm' whether that is enough for hurricane formation is more interesting, a lot depends on the winds in the middle troposphere if there is a lot of wind-shear then the convective storms cannot 'organize' as their tops are blown in a different direction to their base and the convective updrafts don't feed on each other so much. So the winds need to be right as well as the ocean temperatures, you also need an unstable lapse rate that means that warm moist air is a lot lighter than the surrounding cooler dry air. If the sea surface temperatures are a little down then the storms can be steered by the energy available and follow the warmer water. If a storm approaches the Florida peninsula on a North West track and moving slowly it normally curves away to the North as the shallower sea energy is rapidly used up by the hurricane and it turns more North and the Cape Hatteras gets it This is the reason hurricanes often jink as they approach the shoreline. So with the warmer water away from the coast and the winds as they are - Weatherbell is forecasting a lot more 'East Coast' storms on the same track as Sandy or the Long Island Hurricane of 1938. That is a big problem as a tropical storm landfall on Virgina northwards is headlines for months whereas a Cat 3 ashore on Florida is only in the news as long as TV news reporters can stand at 45 degrees shouting at the rain. So if the storms do what is forecast even if there are less of them they will be considered absolute proof of whatever they are calling warming due to CO2 that week.
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Post by cuttydyer on May 15, 2013 10:03:45 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 22, 2014 4:31:48 GMT
judithcurry.com/2014/01/21/ocean-heat-content-uncertainties/Central to arguments related to the hiatus and the ‘missing heat’ is the assertion that unusual amounts of heat are being stored in the deep ocean, and that this heat will eventually reappear at the surface. Exactly how good is the ocean heat content data on which this argument is based?
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 10, 2014 15:41:30 GMT
Code:
It is wishful thinking, and not born out by current ARGO data.
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