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Post by flearider on Jul 14, 2014 17:47:53 GMT
weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gifWhile apologising for my technical inability to post pictures. I thought there were three interesting features [at least] on above gif. a) There seems to be a strong stream of anomalously cold water streaming out from the Peru coast. Wind direction would appear to indicate that any remaining El Nino warmth will soon dissipate. earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-84.18,-5.84,588 b) There seems to be a continuing persistant cold patch in the middle of the Atlantic. This suggests a weak N Atlantic Drift. A tremendous amount of tropical heat is no longer reaching Europe and the Arctic. The Europeans might be well advised to invest in more insulation. c) There is a cold patch streaming out across the Pacific from southern Japan. Does anyone know how this gets formed, and is this normal? It seems to be a pretty large feature. sorry but this started last Antarctic melt .. solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/2164/el-nino-2014?page=26it's the upwelling and will continue and get worst .. this yr .. it follows the path of surface and deep currants the oceans are cooling faster that anyone would have thought .. the Atlantic being the smaller is showing signs first wait till next yr the pacific will look the same .. i'll say it again if an iceage is going to start it will come from the southern hemisphere .. and yes atm it's a big if ..
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 15, 2014 14:45:24 GMT
A very large school of anchovies off San Diego, as the fish like cool water, I found this interesting. "Millions of anchovies amass off La Jolla" A huge school of anchovy amassed near Scripps Pier in La Jolla Tuesday and few graduate students snorkeling in ocean got a unique underwater view. Students from Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego used a GoPro camera to capture video of the anchovy school off the coast of San Diego. “Multimillions” of the finger-sized fishes prized on pizzas and in animal feed — also called Northern anchovy — created a dark-blue band in shallow waters just off the coast when first spotted Monday. Scripps scientists say they haven’t seen such an aggregation in more than 30 years, but were unclear why the large school moved into shallow waters off the coast. More than 30 years..... that's an interesting number what cycle changed 'more than 30 years ago' and has reversed again in the last few years? It is difficult to homogenize out anchovies
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Post by icefisher on Jul 16, 2014 7:00:25 GMT
Science studies of anoxic bottoms in the eastern Pacific have shown that anchovies come and go periodically. Anoxic bottoms are depleted in oxygen so they are relatively biologically undisturbed. Thus surface oriented pelagic species like anchovies and sardines drop scales on the bottom. Anchovies are prevalent during cold events and sardines are prevalent during warm events. Thus the sediments on these bottoms have alternating layers of anchovy and sardine scales.
This is one of the studies of several that confirm natural variation in the Pacific.
Massive anchovy schools come into shallow water all the time when they are around. Nothing unusual except it occurred rarely for about 30 years after 1980 until just the last few years. Before that I viewed these schools frequently from the mid 1950's through the 70's.
Its not a question of "if" but only a question of "how much" the natural ocean variation is responsible for in the modern warming. Since warming has only been progressing at about .13degC per decade for the past 30 years, it seems almost certain that CO2 cannot be responsible for more than about 1/2 that, and if cooling occurs as forecast by Astromet its likely much less than that.
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jul 16, 2014 13:14:16 GMT
Hi Doug, I'm not an expert, and did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, so take my opinion with a grain of salt...
weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gifWhile apologising for my technical inability to post pictures. I thought there were three interesting features [at least] on above gif. a) There seems to be a strong stream of anomalously cold water streaming out from the Peru coast. Wind direction would appear to indicate that any remaining El Nino warmth will soon dissipate. earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-84.18,-5.84,588 Yep, you got it in one, there have been STRONGER than normal trade winds in the area lately. This is the opposite of what you want if you are rooting for an El Niño. Those winds are pushing the warm surface water West and bringing colder water to the surface. The heat from that huge kelvin wave is useless in creating an El Niño if the trade winds are not disrupted.b) There seems to be a continuing persistant cold patch in the middle of the Atlantic. This suggests a weak N Atlantic Drift. A tremendous amount of tropical heat is no longer reaching Europe and the Arctic. The Europeans might be well advised to invest in more insulation. I'm even less sure about this one, but two things popped into my mind when I read this. First, Joe Bastardi says that the AMO is getting ready to flip (To it's cool phase.) and the cool pool is a sign of this... Secondly, I believe the tropical Altalantic is cooler than normal as well and this may be why we (Warning Weasel words ahead...) might be seeing a suggestion of weaker warm currents heading North. I am not convinced that any of the currents are weakening, as I have not seeing anything definitive... c) There is a cold patch streaming out across the Pacific from southern Japan. Yep, saw that. As far as I know it is not indicative of anything other than the fact that it is Typhoon season and there have been a couple of big storms that have mixed the surface... Does anyone know how this gets formed, and is this normal? It seems to be a pretty large feature.
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Post by flearider on Jul 16, 2014 17:36:38 GMT
c) There is a cold patch streaming out across the Pacific from southern Japan.
Yep, saw that. As far as I know it is not indicative of anything other than the fact that it is Typhoon season and there have been a couple of big storms that have mixed the surface...
Does anyone know how this gets formed, and is this normal? It seems to be a pretty large feature.
i'll say it again even tho lots don't believe it's an upwelling from last yrs melt of Antarctica ..there is an undersea ridge that runs straight along there .. and it will get worst next yr .. as a bigger ice cube melts and forces more cold across the equator
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 23, 2014 3:14:17 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 23, 2014 11:16:18 GMT
Interesting to see that Judith has the obligatory troll 'Joshua' in this case who immediately tries to derail the discussion from the content of the paper on Ocean Heat Content - to 'skeptics'. I rather fancy that every well known skeptical blog has 'duty trolls' who are tasked with derailing discussions. The same names seem to crop up in the first few comments.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 23, 2014 12:21:06 GMT
Nautonnier:
Did you note how Ely rabbit was quickly put to task in regards to LW warming the ocean?
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 21, 2014 20:26:53 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Aug 22, 2014 12:47:24 GMT
I was under the impression that real data for the deep oceans has only been collected from the Argo buoys for about a decade. My obviously unsophisticated view is that it will take at least another decade before any reliable trend could possibly be detected. As for claiming the "missing heat" has been found, Occam should be turning in his grave. Anyhow, I fear a large spanner is about to be thrown in the works: en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/One of the earthquakes nearly reached magnitude 5. It will be interesting to observe what happens if a large volcano erupts under the second largest ice field in Europe [outside Greenland]. a) The volcano is under 600 meters [roughly] of ice b) It is a very large volcanic system c) Side effects might include a huge amount of volcanic dust in the stratosphere, and a rather significant, and rapid inflow of fresh water into the North Atlantic. I hope I am safely on holiday in France before anything happens.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 22, 2014 13:02:39 GMT
Doug: Reanalysis is your friend. You have a stove so the water must be boiling.
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Post by duwayne on Aug 22, 2014 13:35:04 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 22, 2014 13:45:38 GMT
Isn't it amazing. The climate scientists have discovered a 60-year ocean current cycle! Nobody knew. Yep, truly amazing. The only folks who seem to not have known this ARE the climate scientists. I use the word "scientist" very loosely.
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Post by walnut on Aug 22, 2014 13:56:17 GMT
The "climate industry" is desperate to hide the missing heat somewhere, where we can't go. Used to be data stations in Siberia, but might as well bury it deeper just to be safe.
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Post by duwayne on Aug 22, 2014 14:45:27 GMT
Hold the presses. I think I've given too much credit to the climate scientists. On further reading I see the authors of the above paper on the 60-year ocean current cycle apparently are an oceanographer and an atmospheric scientist, not climate scientists.
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