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Post by acidohm on Sept 8, 2017 19:10:37 GMT
North Atlantic has been losing heat content since 2009 With the forthcoming Solar Minimum I am expecting at least one very cold winter in the UK from 2017 to 2022 what happened before 1979? Stable, but cooler then today
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 8, 2017 19:55:55 GMT
what happened before 1979? Stable, but cooler then today I don't know that I would say stable ... perhaps cyclical with varying lows and highs ... and adjustments. That little ole downturn shows up on the end.
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Post by icefisher on Sept 8, 2017 20:18:03 GMT
Stable, but cooler then today I don't know that I would say stable ... perhaps cyclical with varying lows and highs ... and adjustments. That little ole downturn shows up on the end. could you explain what is meant by a 10 year deviation and what its base is?
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 8, 2017 22:09:18 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 8, 2017 22:21:57 GMT
I don't know that I would say stable ... perhaps cyclical with varying lows and highs ... and adjustments. That little ole downturn shows up on the end. could you explain what is meant by a 10 year deviation and what its base is? In this case the base is the entire time series length ... 1675-2017 for the CET and 1848-2017 for the AMO (from HADSST3) ... with a 10-Year running average of deviation values with the data point in the 10th-year position. Other bases merely move the zero point up or down. I could have divided each set of deviations by it standard deviation to bring all three to a common range, but didn't bother since the zero line over-plotted nicely.
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 9, 2017 0:04:56 GMT
I hear the heat is hiding down there, out of sight and sun. Yep. I have heard that the deeper you go the hotter it gets. Hillary Clinton confirmations this in her last book.
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Post by Ratty on Sept 9, 2017 0:15:59 GMT
I hear the heat is hiding down there, out of sight and sun. Yep. I have heard that the deeper you go the hotter it gets. Hillary Clinton confirmations this in her last book. Were sniper bullets & Bosnia mentioned?
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 9, 2017 0:31:06 GMT
Yep. I have heard that the deeper you go the hotter it gets. Hillary Clinton confirmations this in her last book. Were sniper bullets & Bosnia mentioned? Haven't gotten that far yet. She was talking about Bill and Paula Jones. Something about cement on feet in the deep blue. 😨
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Post by neilhamp on Sept 9, 2017 18:00:39 GMT
You wanted to know what happened before 1979
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Post by acidohm on Sept 25, 2017 15:37:34 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Sept 25, 2017 23:51:22 GMT
It looks like a substantial piece of work from qualified scientists, working in the appropriate area of science: Researchers: Gerhard KrammResearch Associate of the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks; University of Applied Sciences of Cologne, Germany, 1973 B.E. in industrial engineering, University of Cologne, College of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, 1975, B.S. and 1980 M.S. in meteorology, Humboldt University of Berlin, Germany, Department of Physics, 1994 Ph.D. in meteorology (magna cum laude). Kramm's research background is in microscale and mesoscale meteorology, documented by many peer-reviewed publications. His current research interests include uncertainty analyses of cloud microphysical processes, theoretical and modeling studies on atmospheric turbulence, and atmospheric radiation. His past activities include, among other things, experimental studies on the radiation budget at the surface of the Atlantic Ocean, time series analyses, cloud microphysics, the thermodynamics of irreversible processes applied to soil physical processes, and theoretical studies on the dry deposition of particulate matter and the exchange of highly reactive trace gases between the atmosphere and the biosphere. He has served as a member of the program committee of the Assembly 1998 of the German Meteorological Society (DMG) as well as a convener of special sessions of the AGU in 2002 and the European Geophysical Society (EGS) in 1999. He has also served as a reviewer for 15 different meteorological and geophysical journals as well as proposals for national and international grant programs. He taught various core and special classes for graduate students at the University of Potsdam, Germany, Department of Geoecology (Micrometeorology), and the University of Alaska Fairbanks, College of Natural Science and Mathematics (Atmospheric Dynamics, Atmospheric Radiation, Physics of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer, Turbulence). He also gave lectures on Dry Deposition of Reactive Trace Gases at the University of Valladolid, Spain, Department of Applied Physics. In 2005 he became a member of the Editorial Board of the Journal of the Calcutta Mathematical Society, an international journal dealing with the key advances in Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences. Besides his engagement at the Geophysical Institute, he is working on a textbook entitled "An Introduction to the Theory of Atmospheric Sciences" considered for graduate students. Having served as the STEP Lead Scientist Instructor in 2007, Kramm is serving as a STEP Science Instructor in 2008, when the featured topic is Earth Science. Nicole MöldersAbout meSince 1988, I have been involved in numerical modeling of the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere. I have used mesoscale models to investigate human and natural (e.g. fire, volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic emissions, land-use changes) impacts on weather, air quality and climate. In close cooperation with hydrologists and geologists I coupled a hydrologic and meteorological model and developed an integrative hydrometeorological model. I worked with computer scientists on optimizing chemistry transport models for parallel computers. I led several projects to study ground water recharge, dry deposition of reactive atmospheric trace gases, water availability under changed climate conditions, the impact of land-use changes on evapotranspiration, cloud and precipitation formation, and impacts of various emission sources on air quality and weather. From 1999 to 2001 I was honored as a Heisenberg Fellow for Physical Hydrology, a prestigious award conferred by the DFG. My scientific career in America dates back to 1989, when I worked as a visiting graduate student at the ASRC of the State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany. In 2000, I worked at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) at Boulder, Colorado. In 2001, I joined the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF). At UAF, I continue my research direction with special focus on air quality issues of the Arctic and continue my teaching activities. Since 1995, in Germany and the United States, I have taught cloud physics, satellite meteorology, physical hydrometeorology, paleoclimatology, parameterization of hydrometerological processes, numerical modeling and parameterization methods, mesoscale dynamics, introduction to computational meteorology and introduction to atmospheric sciences. Ralph Dlugi
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Post by duwayne on Sept 26, 2017 16:26:40 GMT
Acidohm (and others), in layman's terms, what does this article say to you concerning the existence and size of the greenhouse gas effect?
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 26, 2017 17:49:50 GMT
Acidohm (and others), in layman's terms, what does this article say to you concerning the existence and size of the greenhouse gas effect? A greenhouse gets hot because you have stopped convection not because of any radiant heat trap, experiments have been run with totally infrared transparent glass and the greenhouses still got hot. The gas laws would seem to show that under Standard Temperature and Pressure lapse rates an atmosphere is warmer at the bottom than at the top. The ICAN international standard atmosphere lapse rates were created without regard to 'green house gases' or 'radiation levels' etc. and are correct and have been shown to be correct. The claim is that CO2 (not O2 or N2) in three narrow bands 'traps' infrared it then magically both transfers the heat to the surrounding gases _and_ causes downwelling of the same infrared sufficient to heat the surface. We are again in the latent heat bind - 'it warms the atmosphere' (equivalent to water vapor releases latent heat) -- unexplained Downwelling infrared exactly how does this warm a body of water when infrared is absorbed by the first H2O molecule a micro or two into the surface -- and not only does it warm the ocean it but the warmth is not measured until several meters below the surface. Like a lot of climate 'science' once you ask questions beyond about K12 level all you get is hand-waving. I would say that the greenhouse hypothesis of atmospheric warming is a little less likely than the sensible heat and water evaporation theory. Mars and the moon seem to be observational cases that show this.
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Post by acidohm on Sept 26, 2017 20:59:34 GMT
Acidohm (and others), in layman's terms, what does this article say to you concerning the existence and size of the greenhouse gas effect? I must admit I scanned through much of, very busy with work tho off to Croatia for 4 days with no kids....gonna be bliss!! Primarily my interest was in the scientific references to paper stating the atmosphere cannot warm the sea. This is a small point but really important to the aurgument. I think it's this article that states...96% of the energy on this planets surface is stored in the water...1 % in the atmosphere. This in itself is huge, it also very much alludes to the fact that the oceans dictate our air temp...not a 0.04% gas. With the hurricane brooha recently, weather enthusiast fb pages have been awash with arm waving and head holding. I, naturally, have been doing my best to calmly set a reasonable aurgument that maybe everything is ok and everyone should calm down. The idea that the atmosphere somehow contributes to heat energy if the oceans is obviously crucial to agw responsibility for these hurricanes. In light of all this I felt this article would benefit anyone who had interest in this area. I had not come across some its keys points before, however if you have found some flaws after reading deeper into it Duwayne is be happy to take it on board!
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 26, 2017 21:26:17 GMT
Acid: The reason the hurricane were a news item, is there has been a record pause in Hurricanes of Cat 3 or above making landfall. 12 years of major events. None of the Hurricanes were record makers.
In fact, the 1780 hurricane still stands as by far the strongest and most deadly hurricane known.
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