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Post by Ratty on Jul 18, 2018 11:00:41 GMT
Lab rats? Bait? Really, Missouri? How cruel ....
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 18, 2018 16:00:45 GMT
Lab rats? Bait? Really, Missouri? How cruel .... Lab rats and bait. Both on the bottom end of the food chain. But when they start looking like a red tide (no geo-area pun intended) you have to call in the specialists. The job's yours Ratty.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 2, 2018 16:58:33 GMT
It is worth reading the Patriot Post link on that Tweet.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 5, 2018 5:10:57 GMT
Some of that heat hiding in the deep oceans had to surface eventually.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 5, 2018 12:01:32 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Aug 5, 2018 12:30:22 GMT
Is the surface part of the North Atlantic Gyre turning back on itself mid-ocean about 40 N? Or am I optically illusioning? If you scroll back through, the big, bright, red-yellow blob of May and June appears to be "blueing" mid-ocean ~40 N ... and blue is rotating into the west-central basin 20-25 N. How fast can the AMO change? Lot of bounces, but the visual trend appears to be downward. Not good prior to winter? earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-51.21,38.82,547 I see what you mean .... alcohol-induced reversion maybe? What proof do you require?
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 5, 2018 13:54:00 GMT
How fast can the AMO change? Thats a great question and I always suspected it would be a gradual transition to cooler SST's. And I think it is to early to definitely say the AMO has switched to a colder phase for good. But maybe that's the way it works. It warms until there is a sudden flip. Or maybe every transitional period is different. And I would agree it is quite possible Western Europe's weather may be effected by cooler SST's this winter.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 5, 2018 14:01:18 GMT
Some thoughts from Joe Bastardi: "What’s interesting here is that while we look for the weather to move from west to east, what’s happening to our northeast may be a big deal. It certainly is for Canada. But as I try to get across the point that what is happening now is important for what is going to happen, the sudden unpredicted drops are very interesting. When you are getting warmer, it’s more or less a steady climb, though, as we saw, a 20-year “pause” at a higher level in the wake of a Super Niño like 1997 may be due to the amount of leftover water vapor that’s limiting the cold while having little effect on the warm, yet it’s still leading to a higher point. I have opined that the recent Super Niño may be doing that, but the problem is that the warmer it gets, the easier it is to have a snap to colder.
Why would that be true? Because if temperatures are a measure of energy, any kind of disruption to what’s causing the increases would lead to cooling. In the CO2 battle, the argument is that increased CO2 is indeed the knob that keeps adding enough to continue to feedback and warm us. The problem, of course, is this: How do these sudden drops occur in areas that have almost all the energy — the oceans? These are great tests here for the objective, rational person. They have both weather implications and climate implications, and closing one’s eyes to warm or cold and where we were is a recipe for great wailing and gnashing of teeth."patriotpost.us/opinion/56761-sudden-crash-of-atlantic-ocean-temps-and-possible-implications
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 16, 2018 2:36:47 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 16, 2018 13:21:19 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 16, 2018 13:22:43 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 31, 2018 12:31:35 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 31, 2018 14:17:32 GMT
I remember a short, belated attempt to qualitatively assess whether arctic ice/snow melt could account for the large cooling observed in the North Atlantic from 2014-16. We were stumbling over the large numbers involved I believe.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 27, 2018 12:08:09 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 14, 2018 14:29:39 GMT
A large thumb on the scale - when is there going to be real governance and quality control at these agencies? A post by Bob Tisdale on WUWT "Why is that important?
With the ERSST.v4 “pause-buster” data, the climate models used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report (stored in the CMIP5 archive) were showing modeled virtual sea surface temperatures that were warmer than the observations for world ocean surfaces.
With the new “pause-buster 2” ERSST.5 data, there is now a greater difference between models and observations. See the model-data comparison of global (60S-60N) sea surface temperatures in Figure 2, which runs annually for the past 30 years."wattsupwiththat.com/2018/10/14/a-very-quick-introduction-to-noaas-new-pause-buster-2-sea-surface-temperature-dataset-ersst-v5/
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