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Post by kelken on May 27, 2010 15:12:54 GMT
New developement possibly crossing Yucutan? Can anyone give me details on direction and a good satellite view. I am in Nashville doing disaster cleanup hard to research out myself. Thanks!!!!!!!! Kel
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Post by woodstove on May 27, 2010 15:19:28 GMT
Says the National Hurricane Center: 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 271129 TWOEP TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM PDT THU MAY 27 2010 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtmlthis is also good resource: spaghettimodels.com/
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Post by hunter on May 27, 2010 15:51:20 GMT
Any storms developing at this time of year are very unlikely to strengthen to dangerous levels. We are very early in the period when tropical systems can develop at all.
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Post by nautonnier on May 27, 2010 16:46:26 GMT
New developement possibly crossing Yucutan? Can anyone give me details on direction and a good satellite view. I am in Nashville doing disaster cleanup hard to research out myself. Thanks!!!!!!!! Kel Here is a reasonable satellite view which may refresh each hour or so For animation go to..... www.intelliweather.net/imagery/intelliweather/sat_goes8fd_580x580_img.htm
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Post by kelken on May 27, 2010 18:05:52 GMT
GGGRRREATTT!!! Thanks! I am actually deployed in Nashville....The Symphony Hall took on 36 ft of water from the floods. We also extracted water from The Country music Hall of Fame and the Hilton. Not so bad on this job....we are staying at the hilton rather than the norm on a catastrophe cleanup....camper, tent etc. Wrapping it up here and heading to Galveston. My concern is the forecast for this season is to surpass 2005 which was the worst on record. I really do not want to be living in a tar pit in Galveston! We SHALL SEE!
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Post by nautonnier on May 27, 2010 18:18:53 GMT
Nice to see you up and about after Rita
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Post by walterdnes on May 28, 2010 4:22:20 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on May 28, 2010 11:08:50 GMT
Yes - I tend to live on those pages as most in Florida and the Gulf coast do. I was disappointed that the forecasters so far do not seem willing to state if any of their forecast number of hurricanes will make landfall and if so where. Many of the 'named storms' in the last few years would never have been named in the past as no-one would have noticed them as they were well out to sea away from common shipping lanes and only climbed above TS intensity for a few hours. This is 1995 - see how many storms remained in the Atlantic but it was 'an active year'. This is 2004 not such an active year but for Florida and the Atlantic states a far more expensive one due to the different storm distribution. A forecast with a likely distribution of landfalling storms would be nice. But its easier to use a formula based on numbers such as SSTs and no understanding of what the output will mean in the reality of distribution of hurricane tracks.
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Post by jimcripwell on May 28, 2010 13:09:33 GMT
nautonnier writes "A forecast with a likely distribution of landfalling storms would be nice."
I dont think anyone would disagree. However, unlike warmaholic forecasts, these are genuine, and are based on good data going back to the 1960's. I suspect data on landfall for hurricanes is so uncorrelated with anything that making sensible forecasts is not possible.
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Post by nautonnier on May 28, 2010 13:22:28 GMT
Looking at the SST distribution and the likely position of the jetstream and associated weather patterns it should be possible to make some kind of informed guess. Even if only a month to 6 weeks ahead.
We will have to see if the chimpanzee forecast was as useful as NOAA's
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Post by stranger on May 29, 2010 0:49:33 GMT
The boffins crystal ball is as broken as mine - but the guesstimate of essentially a 50/50 probability of a major tropical cyclone hitting the Gulf Coast between Apalachicola and Brownsville makes me as uneasy as Kelken. She has seen Ike from the inside, and I suffered through Katrina's aftermath.
Sea surface temperatures are a bit behind the norm this year, but that can change quite rapidly. For those interested, crops have improved somewhat and are only two to three weeks behind the 20 year norm for the date. So evidently there has been some catching up done.
Stranger
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Post by nautonnier on May 30, 2010 1:44:51 GMT
The boffins crystal ball is as broken as mine - but the guesstimate of essentially a 50/50 probability of a major tropical cyclone hitting the Gulf Coast between Apalachicola and Brownsville makes me as uneasy as Kelken. She has seen Ike from the inside, and I suffered through Katrina's aftermath. Sea surface temperatures are a bit behind the norm this year, but that can change quite rapidly. For those interested, crops have improved somewhat and are only two to three weeks behind the 20 year norm for the date. So evidently there has been some catching up done. Stranger Wind and storms are your friend when it comes to pollution. Look at the Braer - run aground in the Shetlands and everyone was in the same 'everything is going to die' mode. 10 days later and nothing - no oil - nothing - the normal Shetland winds and storms had washed it all away. A hurricane Camille or equivalent - and perhaps the oil spill will be all gone. Nature is more powerful than people give her credit for,
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Post by scpg02 on May 30, 2010 7:28:14 GMT
The boffins crystal ball is as broken as mine - but the guesstimate of essentially a 50/50 probability of a major tropical cyclone hitting the Gulf Coast between Apalachicola and Brownsville makes me as uneasy as Kelken. She has seen Ike from the inside, and I suffered through Katrina's aftermath. Sea surface temperatures are a bit behind the norm this year, but that can change quite rapidly. For those interested, crops have improved somewhat and are only two to three weeks behind the 20 year norm for the date. So evidently there has been some catching up done. Stranger Wind and storms are your friend when it comes to pollution. Look at the Braer - run aground in the Shetlands and everyone was in the same 'everything is going to die' mode. 10 days later and nothing - no oil - nothing - the normal Shetland winds and storms had washed it all away. A hurricane Camille or equivalent - and perhaps the oil spill will be all gone. Nature is more powerful than people give her credit for, A storm is not going to stop three oil volcanoes.
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Post by stranger on May 31, 2010 1:20:25 GMT
Well, SGPC, let's get real here.
Pemex', PetrĂ³leos Mexicanos, "Ixtoc 1" was the second largest oil spill in history, second only to Saddam Hussein's deliberate destruction of Kuwaiti wells as the Iraqi army retreated after Desert Storm. The Kuwaiti disaster spilled and largely burned 400 million gallons of crude, while Ixtoc 1 released an estimated 150 million gallons of crude into the Golfo de Mejico. The current estimate for Deepwater Horizon is 20 million gallons - but for a variety of reasons that is probably substantially higher than reality. For comparison, the Exxon Valdez spill was some 10 million gallons.
The Exxon Valdez spilled its oil into a narrow and relatively shallow arm of a sub-arctic sea. The Horizon blowout is a mile down in one of the warmest bodies of salt water on the planet, and like Ixtoc 1, an area that is known to have a very high density of "crude oil eating bacteria."
Ixtoc 1 occured in the Gulf of Campeche, almost due south of Horizon. Despite fears that "the end of the Gulf was nigh" shrimp and other sensitive aquatic life returned to the area within two years. As did fishing, diving, and the flora and fauna typical of the area before the blowout. Five years after the blowout, one had to look closely to find any remaining effect.
Of course, Ixtoc was only 150 feet deep. Horizon is a mile down. But technology is likely to greatly shorten the time before the well is eventually shut down. So Horizon is not the end of the world. In all probability it just means a lot of inconvenience for some people who do not need to miss a minutes work - and temporary unemployment for some bureaucrats with a track record of getting high and watching the girl thingyCat theatre at work.
Good riddance and bad cess to THEM!
Stranger
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Post by scpg02 on May 31, 2010 3:16:09 GMT
Ixtoc 1 occured in the Gulf of Campeche, Totals I've seen say we are already passed that. And there is evidence of the second hole and three different plumes. I'll see if I can dig the articles up again. I'll post them on my oil spill thread in the general section.
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