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Post by nautonnier on Jun 23, 2010 3:28:34 GMT
The upper gulf is now more than warm enough to support Cat 5 hurricanes, and the land temps are at or near the 100 degree mark in many places. So we will probably have a really interesting summer. Stranger Well as someone who is to the South and East of you - I hope it is not too interesting 2004 was interesting enough. Currently, the upper winds are taking the top off the convection before it can start circulation. It was shear like that which kept last year quiet.
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Post by stranger on Jun 24, 2010 0:55:01 GMT
The more shear the better. For what it's worth, the computer says the most likely landfall is between Port Aransas and Pensacola. With the probability rising toward the east.
NOT good, especially for the relief well effort.
Stranger
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Post by graywolf on Jun 28, 2010 19:31:03 GMT
Well Alex seems set to make it up to 'cane status over the next 24hrs but I think it'll be centered to the NE of the current plot. The majority of good convection is seated there and there is already more convection already in the Gulf. Should this occur then you can move the C.C. landfall up into Texas proper and maybe even further east if the system slows and tails off to the NE.
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Post by icefisher on Jun 28, 2010 20:00:25 GMT
Well Alex seems set to make it up to 'cane status over the next 24hrs but I think it'll be centered to the NE of the current plot. The majority of good convection is seated there and there is already more convection already in the Gulf. Should this occur then you can move the C.C. landfall up into Texas proper and maybe even further east if the system slows and tails off to the NE. Well if it hurries up perhaps it will end a 24 year drought of June hurricanes. It appears every decade of the 20th century had at least one except the last decade the 1990's. I don't think there has been a June Atlantic hurricane affecting the US since 1986. (unless we had one I don't remember in 2006-2009) www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/ushurrlist.htm
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Post by hunter on Jun 29, 2010 2:45:09 GMT
Alex looks to be a worst a minimal hurricane, and looks to be striking in a so-called no man's land between Tampico and Brownsville.
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Post by dusty09 on Jun 29, 2010 14:58:11 GMT
Dusty, the "BP" situation is somewhat muddled by reports that regulators ordered the Deepwater Horizon crew to forget SOP and put seawater down the borehole instead of cement. Stranger That would be truly astounding, from reading between the lines of what you see in the press I thought someone at BP had gambled on an unsafe process thinking that the Blow out preventer would save the day...will be keeping an eye out for that. Going back to Hurricanes.. RE invest 93Alex. www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews10No23.pdfwww.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews10No24.pdfOur man Piers is claiming this as a success, I'm not wholly convinced but then I know very little about this..Anyone care to comment?
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Post by stranger on Jun 29, 2010 19:47:04 GMT
Dusty, the consensus seems to be pressure at the blowout preventer was in the 100,000 PSI range. That mechanism is designed for 5,000 PSI and then overbuilt. But not 20 times overbuilt. So whether the BP was in perfect order or less than perfect order is pretty much a moot point. It would probably not have made more than three seconds worth of difference.
Stranger
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Post by hairball on Jul 20, 2010 22:17:57 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 20, 2010 22:35:07 GMT
Don't count on it - the actual temperature is quite high despite the cold anomaly. This is 2004 the year when Florida was hit with 4 hurricanes at 2 - 3 week intervals.... it wasn't hot in the Atlantic then either... and today does not look disimilar: Remember - for a meteorological forecast - 60% is close on a certainty.
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Post by kelken on Jul 27, 2010 1:55:16 GMT
What happened to the strongest predicted season on record at this point we have traveled through 27% of the season with not much activity. Upper level lows with wind sheers keeping things at bay. Seems like the thing to watch is the velocity of the storms that are moving through the states.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 27, 2010 11:05:47 GMT
What happened to the strongest predicted season on record at this point we have traveled through 27% of the season with not much activity. Upper level lows with wind sheers keeping things at bay. Seems like the thing to watch is the velocity of the storms that are moving through the states. As I said in another thread perhaps the two aspects are linked. The weather patterns have moved southward as the polar vortex has expanded. This has led to more severe weather in the mid-latitudes and less hurricane friendly shear in the tropics as fronts reach a lot further South than is normal in summertime. Its possible that as we move into August we may see a burst of activity - that's what happened in 2004. Most modeling and weather forecasting is based on replication of patterns seen before. But I think we are seeing weather patterns that have not occurred in the last 100 years. The next 6 months are going to be interesting. If the long range forecasts for temperatures are correct then we are both lucky we are in the deep South.
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Post by stranger on Jul 27, 2010 19:00:21 GMT
I see the oil slick "was the size of Kansas and is now the size of New Hampshire." Or about the size of a Kansas county. The skimmer boats are recovering very little crude, and I have been told that the skimmed crude is badly degraded and no longer suitable for either burning or refining.
It appears the "crude eating bacteria" are having a field day, and the winds and currents are essentially homogenizing what is left of the crude. That is good, since microdroplets have a lot of surface for their mass.
For those interested in all the oil soaked animals - quite a number of oily birds have been reported but to this point it seems the wildlife was not badly damaged. Most of the critters clean up nicely, and the animal deaths are largely from other causes.
So hopefully the tarballs will stop washing up and we can all get back to normal. Although the drilling rigs continue their exodus.
Stranger
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 28, 2010 5:40:41 GMT
I see the oil slick "was the size of Kansas and is now the size of New Hampshire." Or about the size of a Kansas county. The skimmer boats are recovering very little crude, and I have been told that the skimmed crude is badly degraded and no longer suitable for either burning or refining. It appears the "crude eating bacteria" are having a field day, and the winds and currents are essentially homogenizing what is left of the crude. That is good, since microdroplets have a lot of surface for their mass. For those interested in all the oil soaked animals - quite a number of oily birds have been reported but to this point it seems the wildlife was not badly damaged. Most of the critters clean up nicely, and the animal deaths are largely from other causes. So hopefully the tarballs will stop washing up and we can all get back to normal. Although the drilling rigs continue their exodus. Stranger "Although the drilling rigs continue their exodus. "Which was the intent of much of the post-spill political activity It is probable despite the clean up (in)action that 2 years from now it will be difficult to find much trace of the 'spill'. Except that oil exploration in the Gulf will have stopped and fuel prices will have risen.
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Post by stranger on Jul 28, 2010 15:56:25 GMT
Agreed, clearing the Gulf of drilling rigs was the intent of the post spill inactivity. I saw a financial industry post yesterday that estimates a loss of 175,000 jobs a year though 2035 if drillers continue to be encouraged to "vote with their feet."
As the "rich" have been for some time. Two friends have paid the emigration tax and are on their way to Cost Rica, and more are talking of following. As they say, better a half loaf than none. It leaves me wondering just who all these "rich" are that will be left to soak.
Stranger
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 28, 2010 16:01:36 GMT
" It leaves me wondering just who all these "rich" are that will be left to soak."
The middle classes of course - those that were told that there would not be an extra cent of tax for them to pay.
Plus ca change la plus la meme chose
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