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Post by scpg02 on Jul 28, 2010 23:52:24 GMT
Agreed, clearing the Gulf of drilling rigs was the intent of the post spill inactivity. I saw a financial industry post yesterday that estimates a loss of 175,000 jobs a year though 2035 if drillers continue to be encouraged to "vote with their feet." As the "rich" have been for some time. Two friends have paid the emigration tax and are on their way to Cost Rica, and more are talking of following. As they say, better a half loaf than none. It leaves me wondering just who all these "rich" are that will be left to soak. Stranger Is it too much of a stretch to think that the spill was a false flag in order to give a reason to stop drilling?
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Post by matt on Jul 29, 2010 2:45:05 GMT
Is it too much of a stretch to think that the spill was a false flag in order to give a reason to stop drilling? Nobody runs a 20 billion dollar and environmentally damaging false flag up any flagpole. Unless Dr Evil has taken over Greenpeace.
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Post by excalibur on Jul 29, 2010 3:00:03 GMT
The Gulf "False flag" will guarantee BP and other petroleum company a monopoly in the Gulf oil extraction banning any new exploration.
It will also put into law the Carbon Casino who, BP and its friends will get paid to extract more petroleum from its depleted oil field.
The only winner out of this tragedy its BP and the petroleum lobby
There is a thread on this already
Floridians will never see the colour of that BP money because the known Venus flood will wipe them all off the map in 2012 and they will claim its methane...
Matt are you that naive? Or you have invested interest?
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Post by matt on Jul 29, 2010 3:19:21 GMT
Floridians will never see the colour of that BP money because the known Venus flood will wipe them all off the map in 2012 and they will claim its methane... The Floridians will move to Atlanta and sue BP. I am puzzled - where does a Venus flood get its methane?
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Post by scpg02 on Jul 29, 2010 22:09:09 GMT
Is it too much of a stretch to think that the spill was a false flag in order to give a reason to stop drilling? Nobody runs a 20 billion dollar and environmentally damaging false flag up any flagpole. Unless Dr Evil has taken over Greenpeace. Green Peace was bought and paid for a long time ago.
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Post by bender on Aug 11, 2010 0:38:59 GMT
Interesting to compare Maue's 30 year cyclone activity chart with a 30 year sunspot chart. Tracks really well. Do you think there may be a correlation? Nah! 30 year cyclone activity chart: www.coaps.fsu.edu/%7Emaue/tropical/and 30 year sunspot chart en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variationRyan N. Maue's 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update Global TC Activity remains at 30-year lows at least -- The last 24-months of ACE at 1090 represents a decrease from the previous months and a return to the levels of September 2009...Since Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) and the publication of high-profile papers in Nature and Science, global tropical cyclone ACE has collapsed in half. This continues the now 4-consecutive years global crash in tropical cyclone activity. While the Atlantic on average makes up about 10% of the global, yearly hurricane activity, the other 90% deserves attention and has been significantly depressed since 2007. See Figure below. Northern Hemisphere year-to-date ACE is nearing 50% below normal. The Western North Pacific is at 17% of normal (or the past 30-year average). August 8: Current 7-10 day forecast models see little if any tropical activity on the horizon. Colin and Bonnie both go into the books as a couple of the weakest tropical cyclones on record. No storms were recorded in the Eastern Pacific during July! August and September will have to be record activity for the hurricane forecasts to pan out in the North Atlantic. See discussion at Watts Up With That?
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Post by msphar on Aug 11, 2010 3:04:36 GMT
This season may still reach most of the forecaster's expectations but things must come together soon. Perhaps they will...but one thing is not widely discussed and that is the ability of the Cape Verde wave engine to generate enough waves that develop.
In studying this issue, I have estimated that a wave comes off Africa in the Cape Verde region about once every 3.5 days. Of all these waves only about 10% to 15% are estimated by more diligent minds than mine to become productive meaning grow to Tropical Cyclone intensity. When you run the numbers, this limits the effect of the CV spawned storms to a very low number currently and this number keeps shrinking day by day as the season progresses. CV storms make up the bulk of the forecasted numbers. So there is a squeeze playing going for the forecasters. You can vary the frequency of wave generation and vary the percent of productive waves but eventually the numbers will get out of proportion to reality. A few non Cape Verde storms will occur each year and this adds to the variability of the forecast.
As things are now, the forecasts will be hard to meet. Fortunately NHC doesn't seem to care about forecasts. Unfortunately their parent organization does. I hope NOAA never puts pressure on NHC to meet its forecast.
So here is my example, we have 112 days left in the season, 112/ 3.5 = 32 (waves ) 32 * .2 = 6.4 (productive waves) I raised the percent productive arbitrarily to 20% in this case to allow for a more active year forecast. So rounding up we would get 7 more named storms from Cape Verde, plus the three already recorded. That means the forecasters will have to hope for a lot of coastal activity. It will be interesting to see what happens.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 11, 2010 9:26:19 GMT
It will be padded out by storms that happen way outside any interested shipping lanes, never approach land, and which apart from being seen on satellite never really had any effect e.g. Colin. Almost all of these 'named storms' would not be thought at all exciting off the North West coast of Europe. In theory the percentage of Cape Verde waves becoming these 'storms' could rise to as high as say 60% as the La Nina effects reduce windshear over the mid-Atlantic so the bandwidth could exist. There is a lot of cooler than normal water in the mid-Atlantic off the African coast this doesn't appear to augur well for a ramp up in storms. However, this is yet another case of arbitrary scoring of weather events as if 14 rather than 17 was important.
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Post by icefisher on Aug 11, 2010 10:32:53 GMT
However, this is yet another case of arbitrary scoring of weather events as if 14 rather than 17 was important. I have to agree. What was shown by the analysis is 6 out of 11 years during La Nina hurricane strength is down. So what would an El Nino show? 6 of 11 with hurricane activity up?
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Post by msphar on Aug 11, 2010 15:03:20 GMT
I sweat out every wave and every named storm and a lot of the unnamed storms as I have real skin in the game, at the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico. Its a form of risk management for me rather than some dry calculations somewhere. The number of named storms that have come close is really pretty high including some of the big names perhaps a dozen close misses and about three or four direct hits. It reminds me of childhood playing dodge ball. Some damage but not much.
That bit of very cooling water off of Africa is very interesting. Its a little low in Latitude to directly affect the temps in the Main Development Region, but nonetheless it is an impressive signature of the current La Nina impact. Good observation.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 11, 2010 16:00:06 GMT
I sweat out every wave and every named storm and a lot of the unnamed storms as I have real skin in the game, at the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico. Its a form of risk management for me rather than some dry calculations somewhere. The number of named storms that have come close is really pretty high including some of the big names perhaps a dozen close misses and about three or four direct hits. It reminds me of childhood playing dodge ball. Some damage but not much. That bit of very cooling water off of Africa is very interesting. Its a little low in Latitude to directly affect the temps in the Main Development Region, but nonetheless it is an impressive signature of the current La Nina impact. Good observation. I watch quite closely too - I was under the series of 4 hurricanes in 2004 that hit mid Florida. Charlie actually went directly over where I am at the moment, complete with the calm in the eye....
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Post by msphar on Aug 11, 2010 17:22:26 GMT
I was in Coconut Grove near Miami in 2004. We got slapped by a Charlie rain band the night it was coming up on the West. It was my introduction to TC weather. Things went downhill after that, Ivan scared me the most especially after reports from Grenada. Frances took three days to pass. Jeanne I bailed on and went to Hawaii. we don't get TCs in Western Nevada. Good thing.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 11, 2010 23:25:36 GMT
Strange you should mention Ivan - this was generated at the lab I was working in after yet another Hurricane warning .... Attachments:
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Post by scpg02 on Aug 12, 2010 0:04:22 GMT
LOL gotta love that one.
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Post by msphar on Aug 12, 2010 3:06:16 GMT
Thats the route that I feared Ivan was gonna take. His little finger might have wiped Biscayne Bay off the map! Sorta like the Jeanne route except she did a button hook.
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