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Post by nautonnier on Aug 12, 2010 10:27:18 GMT
Yes Jeanne was a "no threat going to continue North East in the mid-Atlantic" and suddenly turned around and took out Vero Beach _again_
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Post by hunterson on Aug 20, 2010 13:45:00 GMT
Strange you should mention Ivan - this was generated at the lab I was working in after yet another Hurricane warning.
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Post by icefisher on Aug 24, 2010 15:56:39 GMT
danielle is officially a hurricane with what might be another right on her heels.
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Post by magellan on Aug 25, 2010 0:16:56 GMT
danielle is officially a hurricane with what might be another right on her heels. danielle is now officially not a hurricane.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 25, 2010 6:04:22 GMT
danielle is officially a hurricane with what might be another right on her heels. danielle is now officially not a hurricane. Its back up again. "THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING ONE THIS EVENING. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND EXPERIENCING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE WARM SSTS...THESE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS USUALLY DO NOT FAVOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FRACTURE THE TROUGH IN 36-48 HR...WHICH CAUSES A DECREASE IN SHEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO DANIELLE AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING. THIS IS THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED IN THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFDL/LGEM/SHIPS MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KT. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE THE STEERING FLOW FOR DANIELLE DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH THAT GENERAL MOTION AT A SLOWER SPEED CONTINUING FOR A FEW DAYS AFTERWARD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE LONG-TERM IS HOW MUCH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AFFECT DANIELLE. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A WEAKER TROUGH...WHICH CAUSES A DELAYED NORTHWARD TURN OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE INITIALLY...BUT ENDS UP SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 120 HOURS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS INCREASING AT THE LONG-RANGE...SO THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THAT TIME IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. " www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/250328.shtml?Remember if Danielle was to make landfall near Long Island then the politicians would claim AGW proven; if Danielle tracks up in the mid-Atlantic they will feel cheated.
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Post by msphar on Aug 26, 2010 12:25:58 GMT
They both look pretty ragged with Earl being the worse. It will continue to struggle as it swallows that dry air entrained from the West and North. It is forecast to reach hurricane strength though, and it might. NHC original track had it at 20N 60W by Monday. Now it appears the track was shifted right, so that it would hit 20N by 57W in the same time frame. Later still they are talking about shifting the track more West/South because of problems with identying the center. So track may shift back toward 20N 60W.
20N is important to me, because that is 2 degrees North of my boat at 65W. Looks like a large enough miss to not worry. I'll know more by Sunday.
The next wave is off Africa at 16W. That will be a concern for me in about 8 days, Sep 3rd.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 26, 2010 23:20:43 GMT
They both look pretty ragged with Earl being the worse. It will continue to struggle as it swallows that dry air entrained from the West and North. It is forecast to reach hurricane strength though, and it might. NHC original track had it at 20N 60W by Monday. Now it appears the track was shifted right, so that it would hit 20N by 57W in the same time frame. Later still they are talking about shifting the track more West/South because of problems with identying the center. So track may shift back toward 20N 60W. 20N is important to me, because that is 2 degrees North of my boat at 65W. Looks like a large enough miss to not worry. I'll know more by Sunday. The next wave is off Africa at 16W. That will be a concern for me in about 8 days, Sep 3rd. If the forecast is right then you will be well South West of the hurricane path at closest approach and the western side is the least powerful so all you should see is an interesting swell and some outer shower bands if it gets to Cat 2 or more. Your galley is on gimbals I would hope
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Post by msphar on Aug 27, 2010 3:44:01 GMT
The stove is gimballed but locked in place at the moment. I happen to be a rather large carbon footprint off to the West and just observing things from the high desert of Nevada. I'll grab a flight down there if things start to look bad but up till now I haven't been concerned. I was down there in late July prepping for the season. No sense buying a ticket without a storm targeting the area. Perhaps the next wave or the next or the next. Plenty of lead time for development and popping on down.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 27, 2010 16:36:07 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 27, 2010 19:13:50 GMT
Yes it looks like Joe Bastardi is right - if every tropical wave coming off Africa for the next few months follows these then it will be interesting Especially when you consider that a hurricane in ONE DAY takes energy from the ocean in the hydrologic cycle equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.htmlSo each one of those storms is sucking vast amounts of heat out of the ocean that would otherwise remain to keep Europe warm with the North Atlantic Drift ....
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 27, 2010 21:56:46 GMT
As a follow on to my last post it would appear that the current crop of hurricanes are extracting the heat energy from the Atlantic at quite a rate Note no anomalously warm SST off Africa. And a VERY cold Pacific
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 27, 2010 22:42:29 GMT
Note how warm the Great Lakes are! I had not noticed this before, it may have been there. The temperatures in that area should not have raised the anomoly by nearly as much as it appears to have been raised. This is interesting.
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Post by matt on Aug 28, 2010 19:01:08 GMT
a hurricane in ONE DAY takes energy from the ocean in the hydrologic cycle equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity The emphasized "one day" is confusing as there is no time associated with the electrical generation. Is it also one day, making the "one day" superfluous and confusing? Or is it per year? Too bad we'll never know. I hate poorly worded quotes. My guess is that the quote-writer just added in ONE DAY for dramatic effect.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 28, 2010 20:00:40 GMT
a hurricane in ONE DAY takes energy from the ocean in the hydrologic cycle equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity The emphasized "one day" is confusing as there is no time associated with the electrical generation. Is it also one day, making the "one day" superfluous and confusing? Or is it per year? Too bad we'll never know. I hate poorly worded quotes. My guess is that the quote-writer just added in ONE DAY for dramatic effect. The reference I gave is to a NASA/NOAA training page gives all the detailed maths. In one day the hurricane hydrologic cycle uses as much energy as 200 days of worldwide human electricity generation. If that is simpler to understand. Energy is also used in the generation of air currents. This wind energy should be added to the hydrologic cycle energy. Read the reference. I find that people grossly underestimate the power of Nature or perhaps egotistically overestimate the power of the human race. If you have spent time on the oceans or in the air you develop a healthy respect for these natural forces.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 29, 2010 2:30:07 GMT
They both look pretty ragged with Earl being the worse. It will continue to struggle as it swallows that dry air entrained from the West and North. It is forecast to reach hurricane strength though, and it might. NHC original track had it at 20N 60W by Monday. Now it appears the track was shifted right, so that it would hit 20N by 57W in the same time frame. Later still they are talking about shifting the track more West/South because of problems with identying the center. So track may shift back toward 20N 60W. 20N is important to me, because that is 2 degrees North of my boat at 65W. Looks like a large enough miss to not worry. I'll know more by Sunday. The next wave is off Africa at 16W. That will be a concern for me in about 8 days, Sep 3rd. Looks like Earl is not steering as expected and will now 'graze' the Caribbean www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/36269/earl-to-strengthen-graze-carib.aspAnd Mike's very useful site here spaghettimodels.com/So you may need to go and launch the boat and get the sheet anchor prepared
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