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Post by Maui on Nov 30, 2010 16:24:46 GMT
This needs to be bumped because solar and volcanic activity continue at unusual levels, and as far as weather goes--well, so much for my predictions of a warm winter! After a mild start, we had an early snow and cold blast (although far from record-breaking). Back to cool and thousand shades of gray...
I have tried to raise a discussion of volcano's warming oceans on a weather forum, but get no replies... and while geologists know a lot, I have never found an answer to the question, "How much heat do undersea volcanoes put into the oceans?"
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Post by trbixler on Nov 30, 2010 18:00:31 GMT
This needs to be bumped because solar and volcanic activity continue at unusual levels, and as far as weather goes--well, so much for my predictions of a warm winter! After a mild start, we had an early snow and cold blast (although far from record-breaking). Back to cool and thousand shades of gray... I have tried to raise a discussion of volcano's warming oceans on a weather forum, but get no replies... and while geologists know a lot, I have never found an answer to the question, "How much heat do undersea volcanoes put into the oceans?" The aerosols bring a net cooling. vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Glossary/VolcWeather/description_volcanoes_and_weather.html
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Post by poitsplace on Dec 1, 2010 14:22:07 GMT
It depends on how reflective the aerosols are and where they occur. In the tropics almost all aerosols cause net cooling. In the arctic the darker sorts of aerosols made by man cause significant warming...and the carbon black melts ice like there's no tomorrow.
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Post by richdo on Dec 4, 2010 18:23:37 GMT
This needs to be bumped because solar and volcanic activity continue at unusual levels, and as far as weather goes--well, so much for my predictions of a warm winter! After a mild start, we had an early snow and cold blast (although far from record-breaking). Back to cool and thousand shades of gray... I have tried to raise a discussion of volcano's warming oceans on a weather forum, but get no replies... and while geologists know a lot, I have never found an answer to the question, "How much heat do undersea volcanoes put into the oceans?" Maui, ran across this and thought you might be interested ... www.pmel.noaa.gov/home/pubs/outstand/dzia2986/abstract.shtmlAbstract: The creation of ocean crust by rapid injection of magma at mid-ocean ridges can lead to eruptions of lava onto the seafloor and release of “event plumes,” which are huge volumes of anomalously warm water enriched in reduced chemicals that rise up to 1 km above the seafloor. Here, we use seismic data to show that seafloor eruptions and the release of hydrothermal event plumes correspond to diking episodes with high injection velocities and rapid onset of magma emplacement within the rift zone. These attributes result from high excess magma pressure at the d**e source, likely due to a new influx of melt from the mantle. These dynamic magmatic conditions can be detected remotely and may predict the likelihood of event plume release during future seafloor spreading events.
As to your question re undersea volcanoes and heat - I did some calcs a while back on this and came up with a total-ocean temperature impact on the order of 10^-8 degK for a "typical", e.g. Mt St Helens, size event occuring under water. Had to make a few assumptions but think the value is reasonably close.
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Post by Maui on Dec 5, 2010 15:07:26 GMT
"10^-8 degK "
Wow!! That's some hot water!
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Post by richdo on Dec 5, 2010 17:18:14 GMT
"10^-8 degK " Wow!! That's some hot water! lol - yeah that wasnt too clear was it! let me try it this way - I calculated that the heat energy associated with cooloing of the magma, spread out over the entire ocean volume would raise the temp of the ocean ~0.00000001 deg K
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Post by trbixler on Dec 6, 2010 2:10:39 GMT
"Author claims we're in the grip of a mini ice age " "FIRST the good news. These bitter winters aren’t going to last forever. The bad news is that they will go on for the next 30 years as we have entered a mini ice age. So says author Gavin Cooke in his book Frozen Britain. He began writing it in 2008 and it was published last year when experts were scratching their heads at the cause of the bitter winter of 2009/10 which brought England to a standstill. Some said it was a one-off event, with experts predicting snowfall becoming increasingly rare. Now, 12 months on, the current sub zero spell makes last year look just a bit chilly. Just like kids enjoying ‘snow days’ off school, Gavin ought to be delighted with the cold snap. After all, he can justifiably say ‘I told you so’. But he’s as glum as the rest of us." www.sundaysun.co.uk/news/north-east-news/2010/12/05/author-claims-we-re-in-the-grip-of-a-mini-ice-age-79310-27768699/
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Post by Maui on Dec 8, 2010 16:25:02 GMT
"let me try it this way - I calculated that the heat energy associated with cooloing of the magma, spread out over the entire ocean volume would raise the temp of the ocean ~0.00000001 deg K"
But the heat is not distributed over the whole ocean. The dramatic effects are local--for example, the chemical effects of Kamchatka eruptions resulted in increased salmon runs in Vancouver but probably had no effect on Atlantic schrod.
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Post by trbixler on Dec 21, 2010 12:55:07 GMT
Weather continues now "6.5-magnitude quake jolts southeastern Iran" Reporting from Beirut — A powerful earthquake struck a sparsely populated stretch of southeastern Iran late Monday, killing at least 11 people, injuring at least 40 and damaging 1,800 homes, state media reported early Tuesday. www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fgw-iran-quake-20101221,0,4028829.story
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Post by trbixler on Dec 28, 2010 5:11:53 GMT
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Post by scpg02 on Dec 28, 2010 19:25:28 GMT
Saw an interview with Piers on FOX. At the end he came across as an absent minded professor. The reporter was trying hard not to laugh. The reporter asked him for his twitter address so he could follow him on twitter and Piers had to look it up on a sheet in front of him. The expression on the reporters face was priceless.
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djake
New Member
Posts: 46
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Post by djake on Jan 3, 2011 6:57:19 GMT
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Post by Maui on Jan 4, 2011 18:11:57 GMT
I guess because his name is Piers, he can ignore peer review. Climate change has been lurking at least since I studied meteorology at Cornell in 1980. There are still many questions about forces and past sequence of events, but the main problem is that for anybody to do anything there has to be a payoff. Fundamentally, payoffs are the opposite of conservation.
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Post by scpg02 on Jan 5, 2011 6:10:53 GMT
I guess because his name is Piers, he can ignore peer review. Piers is selling a product. All he has to worry about is unhappy clients.
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 5, 2011 6:24:48 GMT
I guess because his name is Piers, he can ignore peer review. Piers is selling a product. All he has to worry about is unhappy clients. Well, looking at it from a forecaster's point of view, listen, this is hard work and it isn't easy either. Applied astrophysics or astronomic forecasting, is tough work and there are few who are proficient at it, so there's not a lot of time to mingle with the masses like some TV talking heads who require everything to be explained to them dumbed-down in third-grade language that can be Twittered. Is forecasting a product? If that's the way one wants to look at it. Long-range forecasters come far and few between and the demand is more than any one-man entity can handle while operations with staffs in the hundreds and budgets well over a million+ dollars can hardly forecast two weeks in advance, much less a month. Forecasters work. The mention of terms like "peer review" is academic language which often emanates from theorists who do not forecast. If they did, then they would not have all the time in the world to ramble on about papers. Piers forecasts. He lets it all hang out. The guy is not a entertainer, he's a forecaster. I can relate to that, because so am I. We've been living in an age of dumbed down climate science, of which the great majority does not know how to practice because that is borne out in the real wold of forecasting - where the weather really happens - and not in some climate journal, or "peer-reviewed paper." Those who like to hide behind their credentials while proving that they cannot forecast should temper their comments because in order to be able to put anyone down, you'd at least better be equal to them in forecasting proficiency. Papers are fine, but in the wake of Climategate, we've all seen where the misuse of "peer-review" has placed climate science - not in a good light.
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