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Post by socold on Jul 21, 2010 0:24:15 GMT
"I think we can all agree that there has been no statistical warming for the past 15 years."
Might not be true anymore. The time period was engineered to be just below the 95% confidence level. That was months ago. For all I know the warming trend could not be above the 95% confidence level for the past 15 years up to June 2010.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 21, 2010 2:54:24 GMT
The climate year is far from over Socold. With the record cold in Australia, South America, I think the trend being down will continue. Also, if they use the true temp in the Arctic, rather than the massaged one...it will make a huge difference.
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Post by magellan on Jul 21, 2010 2:55:32 GMT
"I think we can all agree that there has been no statistical warming for the past 15 years." Might not be true anymore. The time period was engineered to be just below the 95% confidence level. That was months ago. For all I know the warming trend could not be above the 95% confidence level for the past 15 years up to June 2010. End of year 2011 it will be 17 years, then what? You do realize what is coming in that time frame right?
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Post by stranger on Jul 23, 2010 0:00:09 GMT
When you look at the Arctic, remember the prevailing winds are from China to the pole. And be aware of the situation in China. Most of these photographs are years or even decades old, and the situation is much worse now than when they were taken: www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazing-pictures-pollution-in-china/Soot from Asia should materially increase temperatures above the Arctic Circle - yet temperatures are below the norm for the "space age." On the other hand, the Antarctic lacks the gratuitous soot deposits, and the Antarctic temperatures are also well below the norm and the ice is growing as one would expect. The moral of course is not to put too much weight on the northern hemisphere's climate. Because while we do not have a CO2 problem - we definitely have a soot problem. Stranger
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 23, 2010 0:09:36 GMT
Stranger: On another thread concering Arctic Sea Ice extent I based my projection on the soot from China. Gavin Schmidt etal wrote a paper not long ago admitting the co2 is a minor player in the Arctic. Particulate pollution is a major player. Thankfully, the US and Canada have done a pretty good job on actual pollution. China has not reached that threshold as of yet. The thing that is nuts is that under the international agreements, the USA would send money to China to build more coal fired plants. What an oxymoron that is.
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