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Post by numerouno on Mar 1, 2011 14:10:50 GMT
"More news about the situation:" That's hardly more adding to what was already said, Northsphinx. Hard-working icebreaker crews had once again resolved the issue, working 60 down to 10, or, "a small number". As a congestion-spotter, you will have your day in the news again, if/when there's more similar winds, that's life on the Baltic in Winter! I think the other Baltic Fans agree, this calls for an uplifting video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSy2PM8_5CQ
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Post by northsphinx on Mar 1, 2011 15:37:11 GMT
You are right, more to come. From Swedish press today about tomorrow. Google translate of www.vk.se/Article.jsp?article=423724"Ice pressure can stop shipping Maritime Administration may stop all traffic in the northern Quark on Wednesday. The reason is that increasing southerly winds with winds up to gale force on Wednesday can provide much hard ice pressure in the Northern Quark. - Because we care about the safety of vessels, it may be that we must stop all traffic in the area, "said Jonas Vedsmand, marketing director for the Maritime Administration, the Administration's website. Ice conditions are currently difficult, but the level of service overall is good, according Vedsmand. Icebreakers in the area on Tuesday focused on assisting as many ships as possible away from the area. This is because the likelihood is high that traffic stopped on Wednesday. Ice pressure, which is expected to mean that the d**es are built up, and it can make the assistance of an icebreaker impossible. For safety reasons, because the ships at anchor instead of positions to withstand ice pressure on the best way, according to Maritime Administration. Icebreakers will be used as necessary to ease the pressure on the ice pressure becomes too intense in individual vessels." Not to common in recent years. Worst sea ice conditions since 1987.
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Post by numerouno on Mar 1, 2011 20:06:56 GMT
"Not to common in recent years. Worst sea ice conditions since 1987. "
To make matters worse industry in the 2010s relies on JOT logistics and sends in considerably more ships than in 1987.
(If you were wondering what NorthSphinx meant by "Quark", that's not a new large-scale particle, merely the narrow part of the gulf of Bothnia beween the cities of Vaasa/Vasa and Umeå called Merenkurkku [FI]/Kvarken[SE,EN]). Post-ice age isostatic rebounding is btw expected to create a new land connection between Finland and Sweden there in about 2,000 years to the future.)
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Post by numerouno on Apr 16, 2011 17:48:57 GMT
Interest in the Baltic seems to have vaned a bit for the moment. However the good old bowl of dirt is still there, and is actually shedding its ice quite fast: Normal situation. haurasta jäätä= fragmented ice haurastuvaa jäätä = ice becoming fragmented I also add that sality of the Baltic is quite low, especially in the North.
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Post by magellan on Apr 16, 2011 18:04:55 GMT
Interest in the Baltic seems to have vaned a bit for the moment. However the good old bowl of dirt is still there, and is actually shedding its ice quite fast: Normal situation. haurasta jäätä= fragmented ice haurastuvaa jäätä = ice becoming fragmented I also add that sality of the Baltic is quite low, especially in the North. Perhaps you could update Hudson Bay, which was supposed to be in a virtual tailspin by now.
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Post by numerouno on Apr 16, 2011 18:16:10 GMT
"Perhaps you could update Hudson Bay"
Be my guest and do so please, mind you I don't own any of this place.
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Post by numerouno on Apr 19, 2011 12:41:26 GMT
Summer-like temperatures due to arrive. A blocking high is forecasted to remain over the area, possibly for weeks. (For April 23rd, from foreca.fi)
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Post by woodstove on Apr 19, 2011 14:22:04 GMT
Summer-like temperatures due to arrive. A blocking high is forecasted to remain over the area, possibly for weeks. (For April 23rd, from foreca.fi) And the ice season in the Baltic this year was proof of catastrophic climate change. Don't forget!
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Post by numerouno on Apr 19, 2011 18:11:25 GMT
"And the ice season in the Baltic this year was proof of catastrophic climate change. Don't forget!"
Missed that one I'm afraid. Was it Global Cooling?
What's up with Hudson Bay anyways?
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Post by numerouno on Apr 27, 2011 5:13:50 GMT
The FMI reports (April 27) that ice in the Gulf of Finland has melted almost completely. The max temp away from the coast reached 22,3 C on the 25th, that is over 10 degrees above the normal values.
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Post by throttleup on Apr 28, 2011 12:43:31 GMT
"And the ice season in the Baltic this year was proof of catastrophic climate change. Don't forget!" Missed that one I'm afraid. Was it Global Cooling? What's up with Hudson Bay anyways? Hudson Bay ice here: ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS54CT/20110425180000_WIS54CT_0005775689.gifSorry, unsure how to resize graphic to keep it from being too large so I just posted the link only. Looks like Hudson Bay still has some ice...
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 19, 2016 21:08:38 GMT
SEA ICE TIME SERIES BALTICWITH COMPARISONS TO PDO AND AMO
I will post this here since there is Baltic and winter in the title. I converted Andrew's chart on Maximum Baltic Sea Ice from 1720 to digital format and updated it with official reports I found for each winter from 1996 to 2015 that I found online. After inputing the annual values by eyeball from the line graph through 2011, I adjusted it based on the ratio of the 1996-2011 official figures versus what I input by eyeball for the same years. Yes, it seems I required a downward adjustment of 0.88 for my 1996-2011 eyeball inputs ... so, I applied the same factor to the rest of the historical time series. The left chart below shows the results. From the late 1700s maximum sea ice extent declines steadily through the 1930s, then reverses course and increases through the early 1980s. At this point there is a 'sharp' drop through 1990 after which sea ice has recovered (based on 5-yr and 11-yr averages). While the last couple of years have been low, it appears we are in an upward trend. So ... is ice extent related to any of our known indices? Well (chart 2), interestingly it would appear that the negative value of ice extent may be more correlated with the PDO than the AMO ... although in some cases, the average of the two seem to fit better. There is one unexplained outlier centered on about 1970. Comments?
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anse
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 62
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Post by anse on Jan 19, 2016 22:44:21 GMT
Interesting Missouriboy. Since I am from, and live in Sweden, and can share my own "unscientific" observations and ideas. It would be interesting to see the correlation between solar activity/NAO index (possibly also AO index) and Baltic Sea ice extent.
I'm probably far from 100 percent correct here, but it seems like there is a fairly strong connection between solar activity and Baltic Sea extent, with a possible lag. Many of the winters with low solar activity, or following winters, see high ice extent. That was at least the case in the beginning of the eightees, not to speak about the winters 09/10 and 10/11. Also during the LIA, in the winter of 1658 to be excact, the swedish king Carl X crossed "Stora Belt" in Denmark over the ice with his army, threatening the capitol Copenhagen which made the Danish king to give up the nowadays southern tip of Sweden (Skåne, Halland and Blekinge) to the Swedish king.
By the way, where did you get ice extent figures back to the 18th century from? Rumours say that the winter of 1942 could be the worst one, in terms of ice extent, when the complete Baltic Sea could have been covered with ice all the way to Copenhagen. That is however unconfirmed due to lack of reliable observations because of WWII. Could be true though since it was a long cold winter and the temperature dropped down to -40 C even as far south as in the south east of Sweden where I come from (some 50 km northwest of Kalmar). -40 C in this region, or any eastern coastal line at all in this country, is quite unlikely unless the Baltic Sea is frozen since low temperatures here are favoured by easterlies.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 20, 2016 0:46:21 GMT
Interesting Missouriboy. Since I am from, and live in Sweden, and can share my own "unscientific" observations and ideas. It would be interesting to see the correlation between solar activity/NAO index (possibly also AO index) and Baltic Sea ice extent. I'm probably far from 100 percent correct here, but it seems like there is a fairly strong connection between solar activity and Baltic Sea extent, with a possible lag. Many of the winters with low solar activity, or following winters, see high ice extent. That was at least the case in the beginning of the eightees, not to speak about the winters 09/10 and 10/11. Also during the LIA, in the winter of 1658 to be excact, the swedish king Carl X crossed "Stora Belt" in Denmark over the ice with his army, threatening the capitol Copenhagen which made the Danish king to give up the nowadays southern tip of Sweden (Skåne, Halland and Blekinge) to the Swedish king. By the way, where did you get ice extent figures back to the 18th century from? Rumours say that the winter of 1942 could be the worst one, in terms of ice extent, when the complete Baltic Sea could have been covered with ice all the way to Copenhagen. That is however unconfirmed due to lack of reliable observations because of WWII. Could be true though since it was a long cold winter and the temperature dropped down to -40 C even as far south as in the south east of Sweden where I come from (some 50 km northwest of Kalmar). -40 C in this region, or any eastern coastal line at all in this country, is quite unlikely unless the Baltic Sea is frozen since low temperatures here are favoured by easterlies. Hello Anse and welcome. Andrew, who lives in Finland posted a graph that he had pulled from somewhere and there was a contact with the Finnish Weather Bureau. I merely transcribed the data as closely as I could and plotted it against the PDO and AMO out of curiosity. The recent data (1996-2015) are from here: en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/baltic-sea-ice-wintersThe chart he posted is on the thread at this site - Weather 2016 (pages 8-9). You are correct, the winters of 1940, 41 and 42 max out along the top of the chart at about 420,000 km2 ('41 was slightly less but not much). My gut feeling is you are correct on the solar connection. Sunspots by themselves apparently don't do so well, but perhaps the geomagnetic AP Index has a better relationship. I'll play with some of these as well as the AO and NAO. Undoubtedly if it was easy someone would have already tagged it.
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Post by Andrew on Jan 20, 2016 5:15:03 GMT
This link explains the chart of baltic sea ice from 1720 to 2008 was based on break up times of the ice and so forth. www.int-res.com/articles/cr/17/c017p055.pdfBy the way Baltic Sea is not really a Sea in the normal sense but more a lake that has denser salt water coming under the fresher water that is present on the top. It is the largest area of brackish water in the world. In Southern Finland the taste of the sea is only very slightly salty.
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