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Post by nonentropic on Jan 23, 2016 3:37:53 GMT
This is very impressive.
Have you fiddled with smoothing to generate or tease out the longer cycle correlation.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 23, 2016 6:50:28 GMT
This is very impressive. Have you fiddled with smoothing to generate or tease out the longer cycle correlation. I haven't ... but I should and I guess I will. I can see more or less where it will end up ... but nothing like a picture. The Not-detrended AMO (N. Atlantic SSTs) in the chart below look even better. You can see the solar index leading each major (and several minor) changes in direction. There appears to be in the order of a seven to ten year lag (perhaps as much as a solar cycle's length) in the SST response time. The current SST lag is getting a little long in the tooth. Longer than past events given the strength of this solar downturn. The November 2015 Argo Reynolds SST deviations in the N. Atlantic cannot hold a positive AMO for much longer you would think. I really don't understand why we don't see more of this in the literature. These numbers have been around for a very long time. I know it doesn't fit the narrative, but I don't see how it can be ignored to the extent it is. There is nothing difficult about this. Just spreadsheets and maps. Are grad students no longer willing to surf new breaks?
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Post by acidohm on Jan 23, 2016 18:13:29 GMT
This is very impressive. Have you fiddled with smoothing to generate or tease out the longer cycle correlation. I haven't ... but I should and I guess I will. I can see more or less where it will end up ... but nothing like a picture. The Not-detrended AMO (N. Atlantic SSTs) in the chart below look even better. You can see the solar index leading each major (and several minor) changes in direction. There appears to be in the order of a seven to ten year lag (perhaps as much as a solar cycle's length) in the SST response time. The current SST lag is getting a little long in the tooth. Longer than past events given the strength of this solar downturn. The November 2015 Argo Reynolds SST deviations in the N. Atlantic cannot hold a positive AMO for much longer you would think. I really don't understand why we don't see more of this in the literature. These numbers have been around for a very long time. I know it doesn't fit the narrative, but I don't see how it can be ignored to the extent it is. There is nothing difficult about this. Just spreadsheets and maps. Are grad students no longer willing to surf new breaks? View AttachmentView AttachmentI noticed that lag in one of your previous graphs....d ya fancy knuckling down with some good old proxies and seeing if anything like that happened before!? I guess this one drawback of pesky 60 year cycles...They quickly outstrip our databases. Can you imagine in 500 years time the data they'd have then!!! Of course, that is dependant on us not burning to death. ....or freezing..... :-D
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 23, 2016 21:42:02 GMT
I haven't ... but I should and I guess I will. I can see more or less where it will end up ... but nothing like a picture. The Not-detrended AMO (N. Atlantic SSTs) in the chart below look even better. You can see the solar index leading each major (and several minor) changes in direction. There appears to be in the order of a seven to ten year lag (perhaps as much as a solar cycle's length) in the SST response time. The current SST lag is getting a little long in the tooth. Longer than past events given the strength of this solar downturn. The November 2015 Argo Reynolds SST deviations in the N. Atlantic cannot hold a positive AMO for much longer you would think. I really don't understand why we don't see more of this in the literature. These numbers have been around for a very long time. I know it doesn't fit the narrative, but I don't see how it can be ignored to the extent it is. There is nothing difficult about this. Just spreadsheets and maps. Are grad students no longer willing to surf new breaks? I noticed that lag in one of your previous graphs....d ya fancy knuckling down with some good old proxies and seeing if anything like that happened before!? I guess this one drawback of pesky 60 year cycles...They quickly outstrip our databases. Can you imagine in 500 years time the data they'd have then!!! Of course, that is dependant on us not burning to death. ....or freezing..... :-D We would likely survive any of the hot or cold scenarios ... it's merely a question of casualties. I wonder 500 years on if our descendants will look back on us and our instrumentation as incredibly savage, or ... in awe of our wonderous technology. If it's the later, we are in deep doo-doo. If the former, part of our gene pool and its accumulated engineering abilities are on their way to the stars. Hopefuly it will not be a fighting retreat from the Religion of Peace. Five hundred years back elements of our ancestors (in a civilization sense) were just off a multi-century win against armies of the Prophet, which had begun with the Franks at Tours, and an incredible assemblage of Celtic, Germanic and Romanized tribes were organizing in the the low countries and the islands into what became a great trading and manufacturing center, which spawned the industrial revolution.
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