|
Post by kiwistonewall on Oct 5, 2008 10:26:09 GMT
Since we've stopped all the CFC's, the Ozone hole will be getting smaller right? Wrong: www.theozonehole.com/waterloo.htmIt is already larger than 2007, and appears to be related to the solar cycle and not CFC's after all! Darn. Actually, the hole is always over poor green-clean New Zealand, but the CFC's are in the Northern Hemisphere. And you'll still see reports that it will take years for the CFC's to exit the atmosphere, rather than pointing to the real cause. After all, they don't want to sued by all the manufacturers who spent millions retooling their 'fridge factories to not use CFC's. Don't get me wrong, we are better off without CFC's floating around in the air, believe me.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Oct 5, 2008 14:01:47 GMT
From the link:
"For example, the most recent scientific assessments of ozone depletion by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, which use photochemical models, predict ozone will increase by one to 2.5 per cent between 2000 and 2020 and Antarctic springtime ozone is projected to increase by five to 10 per cent between 2000 and 2020.In sharp contrast, Lu says his study predicts the severest ozone loss -- resulting in the largest ozone hole -- will occur over the South Pole this month. The study also predicts another large hole will probably occur around 2019."
Excellent - something that can be falsified by empirical data. Is there an easy source of the metrics for the 'ozone hole' so it can be tracked?
The link to cosmic rays and the solar cycle is also interesting as it parallels Svensmark's ideas. There are many natural cycles where the drivers are indirect and possibly several times removed from their effect.
|
|
|
Post by senorchuck on Oct 5, 2008 15:30:38 GMT
We are ahead of the crowd. This was discussed and concluded on the old site a few months ago. [The old site no longer exists.]
|
|
|
Post by Maui on Oct 5, 2008 16:47:30 GMT
re: my idea that the Earth and Sun are analogous and interact --
consider that an ozone hole might be analogous to a coronal hole -- and that an extended period of low - corona might result in changes in the characteristics of our atmosphere.
(And I will try to find reference to a recent discovery of atmospheric anomaly on Mars...)
|
|
|
Post by magellan on Oct 5, 2008 17:21:32 GMT
|
|
|
Post by socold on Oct 5, 2008 18:23:43 GMT
|
|
|
Post by kiwistonewall on Oct 5, 2008 20:03:28 GMT
I Know, I was being Ironic. ;D
|
|
|
Post by jimg on Oct 8, 2008 3:48:34 GMT
|
|
|
Post by slh1234 on Oct 10, 2008 4:13:16 GMT
very nice Very interesting. The ozone hole was another of the 80's panics that dropped off the radar.
|
|
|
Post by kiwistonewall on Nov 1, 2008 0:48:06 GMT
Increased CO2 proved to cause cooling and more rainfall for Australia! From NASA no less. Amazing!Long Quote from earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/MediaAlerts/2008/2008042426741.htmlMy comments in this colourI've edited out stuff with ... but you can read all at the URL above: OZONE HOLE RECOVERY MAY RESHAPE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CLIMATE CHANGE A full recovery of the stratospheric ozone hole could modify climate change in the Southern Hemisphere and even amplify Antarctic warming, according to scientists from the University of Colorado at Boulder, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA. (Of course, if the Ozone hole is larger at a solar minimum as indicated in earlier posts on this thread, then it gets interesting!)While Earth's average surface temperatures have been increasing, (SIC) the interior of Antarctica has exhibited a unique cooling trend during the austral summer (Unique! but not splashed over the news!) and fall caused by ozone depletion, said Judith Perlwitz of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, a joint institute of CU-Boulder and NOAA. "If the successful control of ozone-depleting substances allows for a full recovery of the ozone hole over Antarctica, we may finally see the interior of Antarctica begin to warm with the rest of the world," Perlwitz said. - and conversely, a solar minimum depleting the Ozone is causing cooling! One of the forcings of global cooling by the solar minimum ... The scientists found that as ozone levels recover, the lower stratosphere over the polar region will absorb more harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun. This could cause air temperatures roughly 6 to 12 miles above Earth's surface to rise by as much as 16 degrees Fahrenheit, reducing the strong north-south temperature gradient that currently favors the positive phase of SAM, said the research team. IN other words, the opposite is happening - the Ozone layer is NOT recovering, and we have a positive SAM and cooling in placeThe supercomputer modeling effort also indicated that ozone hole recovery would weaken the intense westerly winds that currently whip around Antarctica and block air masses from crossing into the continent's interior. As a result, Antarctica would no longer be isolated from the warming patterns affecting the rest of the world. (SIC) - and the opposite is now occurring ... The seasonal shift in large-scale circulation patterns could have repercussions for Australia and South America as well. Other studies have shown that the positive phase of SAM is associated with cooler temperatures over much of Australia and increased rainfall over Australia's southeast coastline. Hopefully, Australia will get more rain as the minimum starts to grab.During late spring and early summer, the positive phase of SAM also is associated with drier conditions in South America's productive agricultural areas like Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay, said Perlwitz. If ozone recovery induces a shift away from a positive SAM, Australia could experience warmer and drier conditions while South America could get wetter, she said. But just how influential a full stratospheric ozone recovery will be on Southern Hemisphere climate largely depends on the future rate of greenhouse gas emissions, according to the GRL authors. Projected increases in human-emitted greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide will be the main driver for strengthening the positive phase of SAM. "In running our model simulations, we assumed that greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide would double over the next 40 years and then slowly level off," said Perlwitz. "If human activities cause more rapid increases in greenhouse gases, or if we continue to produce these gases for a longer period of time, then the positive SAM may dominate year-round and dwarf any climatic effects caused by ozone recovery." In other words, increased CO2 causes positive phase of SAM which is associated with cooler temperatures over much of Australia, which causes cooling in Antarctic? Pardon? So increasing CO2 will bring rain to Australia? According to NASA no less?
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Nov 16, 2008 12:54:19 GMT
Interesting item on this wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/09/this-years-antarctic-ozone-hole-is-5th-biggest/The - ' it works in the lab therefore it works in the atmosphere ' people have got it wrong again. "No mention of the possibility of cosmic rays then, but in the face of a reversal, I wonder if maybe they’ll consider alternate suspects. Sometimes I think of our current atmospheric science like a stubborn district attorney that refuses to look beyond what he considers the prime suspect.
“We’ve got our criminals and their names are CO2 and CFC, I’m confident that the forensics will show them guilty beyond a shadow of the doubt”."
|
|
|
Post by bob9000 on Nov 17, 2008 4:46:40 GMT
Kiwistonewall, so far I have agreed with just about everything you've ever said on this board. Science, religion, politics, your thoughts are pretty much my thoughts.
Until now, so I'd like some clarification.
You said that the ozone hole "appears to be related to the solar cycle and not CFC's after all!"
How? I see the graph of the size of the ozone hole start in the early 80's and pretty much follow a parabolic arc, which it's still at the top of, and thats about it. I don't see how it correlates to an 11 year solar cycle.
It's like looking at one of Vukevic's graphs that have the rotation periods of Jupiter and Saturn overlaid with the 11 year solar cycle with him saying "See! They totally correlate!" and you're looking at it and seeing absolutely no correlation whatsoever and wondering if you and him are both looking at the same graph...
Ummm, yeah, so, how exactly do you get that the ozone hole is related to the solar cycle?
Thanks in advance
|
|
|
Post by kiwistonewall on Nov 17, 2008 6:20:50 GMT
Bob9000: It's not my opinion, but the conclusion of the paper I started this thread with:
cheers
|
|
|
Post by bob9000 on Nov 17, 2008 6:26:36 GMT
Oh. So it is. I should've read TFA. I guess I disagree with that guy then
|
|
|
Post by xysatan on Nov 17, 2008 9:55:28 GMT
Hey, I'm new here, Jello! First, the Ozone hole is only observed in the south pole, and has only been know since satellite recordings. So the hole appeared in the 70’s when it was supposed that we were causing the next ice age from fossil fuels…. And then the ozone was disappearing because of chlorofluorocarbons in our atmosphere that came from arasols cans. It’s all BS, O3(ozone) doesn't get depleted, it's created from the off gassing with the summer( heating) sun. The more heat, the more moister(H2O) air combining in our atmosphere from evaporation. This combines with the suns gas’s/winds and debris, fracturing the H2O molecule through electro chemical reaction in our ionosphere. This creates o3(ozone) and other gas’s/minerals. So when there is low activity on/in the sun, it’s colder( like normal winter months on earth when the ozone hole increases) and ozone has trouble forming or disappears with the flex of cold. So we get a loss of the ozone gas being created and more dust and debris and “SALT” from space causing high clouds and rain in the cold months away from the sun. Rain or mist or fog, doesn’t happen without salt and evaporation does not carry the salt up into the sky. Co2 is heavier then air and only builds from ground up or falls down from the sky at cold times. This also produces other gasses/minerals like nitrous oxide, carbon 14 and “CO2” are raining down from the sky. This I think is the reason for the lag with CO2 and heat. The more CO2 in the atmosphere is created because lack of heat( activity) from the sun. It ithen lets dust from our galaxy in to create a chlorine(or other) elements that will retard the development of ozone. When the suns heat( activity or cycle) returns it pushes out the dust and less CO2 is created in the atmosphere. More is sequestered or magnified into the air from life, rotting plant life and of course the biggest CO2( and oxygen) contributor when warmth hits our planet, the ocean. The sun more then the moon controls our tides and oceans, plus everything else in our solar system. Even our own moon is being pulled away from the earth by the sun a centimeter a year. The moon may be orbiting us, but it's controlled by the sun, as are we all and the ozone. Cheers Lance
|
|