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Post by scpg02 on Jul 12, 2011 0:40:16 GMT
He said "The models are right and there's something wrong with the data . . . the data is violating the basic physical principles." LOL |
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 12, 2011 2:23:59 GMT
The six months of darkness at -30°C just freezes it all back once the Sun sets.There's no such thing as "six months at 30C that freezes all back at once". Take a good look at the IJIS' yearly extent chart. Where's the "all at once" part of the chart? Sigurdur, I'm paying 50 USD towards charity for the full real-life Artcic soot link from "Dr Ho" from you. Well, Dr. Ho went on sabatical, but I have posted the link from the Shindell/Schmidt paper twice now. Seems like you keep missing it. We also have references from NOAA. I know Dr. Ho didn't get a chance to submit before his sabatical.....so the above will just have to do. Could ya make that 100.00?.....(please, before you read the papers)...... |
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Post by glc on Jul 12, 2011 11:07:52 GMT
Back to ice and black carbon. China's coal production and consumption have increased by approx 1500 million short tons in the past 10 years. The additional load of BC to the Arctic ice from China is enough to make the 3.5 very plausable and I expect it to happen. Let me get this right. 1. You seem to believe arctic ice melt is caused by BC from China. 2. China's coal production has increased by 1500 million tons in the past 10 years. Due to this (and this alone) you think that this year's minimum arctic ice extent will be more than 1 millon sq km below last year's extent and almost as much below the record 2007 minimum extent. You're off your trolley. Why would BC suddenly have such an unprecedented effect this year? Will the arctic lose another milllion sq km next year? Are you predicting a death spiral within the next 5 years. My guess is that you suspect it might be a low minimum so you've opted for a ridiculously low extent which won't actually be reached when you'll claim some sort of recovery. The effect of BC is still unclear. Strange that you accept any crap which might contradict CO2 warming but reject more than a century's worth of research on the influence of CO2 in the atmosphere. |
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Post by numerouno on Jul 12, 2011 12:13:42 GMT
Could ya make that 100.00?.....(please, before you read the papers).....
I've not seen any links to literature from you. Please post properly. With publication, page and quote. "Dr Ho says so" is not a reference.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 12, 2011 13:03:09 GMT
Back to ice and black carbon. China's coal production and consumption have increased by approx 1500 million short tons in the past 10 years. The additional load of BC to the Arctic ice from China is enough to make the 3.5 very plausable and I expect it to happen. Let me get this right. 1. You seem to believe arctic ice melt is caused by BC from China. 2. China's coal production has increased by 1500 million tons in the past 10 years. Due to this (and this alone) you think that this year's minimum arctic ice extent will be more than 1 millon sq km below last year's extent and almost as much below the record 2007 minimum extent. You're off your trolley. Why would BC suddenly have such an unprecedented effect this year? Will the arctic lose another milllion sq km next year? Are you predicting a death spiral within the next 5 years. My guess is that you suspect it might be a low minimum so you've opted for a ridiculously low extent which won't actually be reached when you'll claim some sort of recovery. The effect of BC is still unclear. Strange that you accept any crap which might contradict CO2 warming but reject more than a century's worth of research on the influence of CO2 in the atmosphere. I don't think my minimum is rediculously low. 1. We all know wind plays a large part in the transport of Arctic Ice. The wind/currents this year favor a very low minimum. 2. The increase in BC load is large enough that in situ ice melting is going to happen. 3. The change in jet stream because of the change in solar wind is allowing the air temp in the Arctic to increase. 4. I am not discounting co2's effect. It is smaller than the above, but it still has an effect. When combining all of the above, I still think 3.5 is not out of the ballpark. Even if I am wrong and it is 4.0, that is still a very low summer ice extent. However, I really don't think 4.0 has a chance and it will be lower. |
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Post by hairball on Jul 12, 2011 23:31:59 GMT
The University of Bremen reckons R 2=0.87 there'll be a new record minimum 4.1m km 2(± 0.3) according to 8 data points:  ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/prediction/estimate.png I don't see it myself, the AO has swung wildly in the last few months and the current high pressure up there is compacting the ice toward the pole. This seems to be caused by the Sun according to Lockwood. With North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean heat content dropping; 2007 will remain a record long after anyone of us have stopped arguing about this trivia. EDIT, heh, the R^2 went to 0.90 while I was posting  |
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Post by numerouno on Jul 14, 2011 20:55:52 GMT
A positive Whirlpool. Both Passages opening. 2012 minimum ice extent 4.4 Mkm2 or more, i.e. an increase of this year's 4.15 Mkm2.  |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 16, 2011 2:49:09 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Jul 16, 2011 12:02:20 GMT
I think it will be more interesting to see what 'limits' melt this year? We had the other 'post 07' years that had the collapse and spread of the remaining Paleocrystic to limit losses at the end of the season. This year we have no such ice and a majority pack less that the 3.5m thickness that we have historically seen melt out over a single season.
Last year we saw the last of the shorefast ice/channel ice flushed out of all the feed channels to the NW Passage 'Deep Channel' and the first of the ice exports from the Arctic Ocean to the North into Baffin (via the deep channel) . With less than 1/3 of the Deep Channel now to break up /melt out will we see this novel exit in operation again this year?
Once upon a time this part of the Arctic Ocean used to build the thick,resilient Paleocrystic. Is this area now to do a full 180 into an active exit from the Basin?
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Post by thermostat on Jul 18, 2011 0:10:33 GMT
I think it will be more interesting to see what 'limits' melt this year? We had the other 'post 07' years that had the collapse and spread of the remaining Paleocrystic to limit losses at the end of the season. This year we have no such ice and a majority pack less that the 3.5m thickness that we have historically seen melt out over a single season. Last year we saw the last of the shorefast ice/channel ice flushed out of all the feed channels to the NW Passage 'Deep Channel' and the first of the ice exports from the Arctic Ocean to the North into Baffin (via the deep channel) . With less than 1/3 of the Deep Channel now to break up /melt out will we see this novel exit in operation again this year? Once upon a time this part of the Arctic Ocean used to build the thick,resilient Paleocrystic. Is this area now to do a full 180 into an active exit from the Basin? graywolf, I see you were correct a few weeks back in predicting the rapid melt observed in the first half of July, even as I remained skeptical. Where I find your comments most on target is when you explain how today's extreme events are now seen as to be expected. I think you are correct, the Arctic Sea Ice has undergone a fundamental, unprecedented change since the 1970's. Even average summer conditions now result in near record melts. While longer range forecasts now predict that the high pressure area north of Alaska will dissipate in a few days, it is no longer clear that this sort of weather pattern is what reallymatters. The ice is now so mobile and thin, and so much heat is entering the system from more southerly oceans; the Arctic Ocean water is mixing in novel ways; that new mechanisms are taking over the melt |
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Post by graywolf on Jul 18, 2011 7:31:50 GMT
Hi Thermo!
It appears that today many of the old processes that used to maintain the Arctic now actively help to remove ice? When we have the feeder channels to the NW Passage open (next week?) then the Area to the North of the C.A. that used to help compact the paleocrystic will now be shipping ice out (via those feeder channels/NW Passage deep channel and into Baffin) and helping ship out the 3rd/4th year ice which now is the oldest in the basin ('cept for the crumbling ice shelf on Ellesmere/ice cap on Devonshire).
Last year was the final year with the old 'paleocrystic' some of which we saw die in N. Beaufort in Aug. As such how will the end of melt season look this year? In years past there was a natural 'brake' of old thick ice which could not melt out of a single season. If all we are left with ,come late Aug, are the remnants of the ice we saw make 3.5m+ (not much???) then we are in a poor state indeed. Any late'di-pole' action will utilise the NW Passage as an exit (over 4 times the scale of Nares which accounted for 10% of 07's export) and leave a very low figure in the basin to 'age' another year. I would feel that this year , come ice max, F.Y. ice will represent the greater majority of all the ice in the basin and the NSIDC 'ice age' map will show a very thin strip of older ice to the north of Greenland?
Should this pan out then how much will that ice have put on over winter esp if even larger areas need to wait for re-freeze as the ocean sheds it's heat??
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Post by graywolf on Jul 19, 2011 19:58:33 GMT
Early sea ice melt onset, snow cover retreat presage rapid 2011 summer decline nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/Mid month updates? Must be changing fast? Recent studies tell us that basal melt (this time of year) can reach 1m/month. I wonder how thick the Basin ice is now? Maybe my punt wasn't so 'extreme after all? |
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Post by thermostat on Jul 21, 2011 1:42:33 GMT
Early sea ice melt onset, snow cover retreat presage rapid 2011 summer decline nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/Mid month updates? Must be changing fast? Recent studies tell us that basal melt (this time of year) can reach 1m/month. I wonder how thick the Basin ice is now? Maybe my punt wasn't so 'extreme after all? Graywolf, Following the long term weather forecasts, indications are that high pressure over the arctic will be replaced by low pressure systems. This is not the 2007 pattern being repeated. One would expect a reduction in the rate of Arctic Sea Ice loss with the developing weather pattern. The wheel is now in spin. |
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 21, 2011 1:52:26 GMT
Thermostat:
There won't be a reduction in the melt......mark my words. Even with the influence of the low pressure.
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Post by thermostat on Jul 21, 2011 2:00:38 GMT
Thermostat: There won't be a reduction in the melt......mark my words. Even with the influence of the low pressure. sigurdur, bold words indeed! |
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