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Post by THEO BAKALEXIS on Mar 12, 2011 15:45:18 GMT
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Post by Kevin VE3EN on Mar 12, 2011 15:59:29 GMT
Cool images... Please check your personal messages. Kevin
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Post by Bob k6tr on Mar 13, 2011 5:59:07 GMT
It looks like we have hit the jackpot. Both GONG and SDO are predicting 4 new region will develop on the farside of the sun over the next few days. gong.nso.edu/data/farside/Unless some new regions emerge on the earth facing side of the sun next week we will probably be in for a quiet spell after 2 weeks of fireworks. But don't dispair the respite should be brief and by the end of the month Ole Smokey should be popping off again.
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Post by af4ex on Mar 13, 2011 13:57:46 GMT
Bob k6tr> Unless some new regions emerge on the earth facing side of the > sun next week we will probably be in for a quiet spell ... These quiet spells are artifacts created by our inability to measure solar activity (SN & SFI) on the far side. There was a similar lull a two weeks ago (oval), but as you can see from the trend line below, it really had no impact on the trend. Going up, even if we can't see it all the time. :-| Attachments:
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Post by THEO BAKALEXIS on Mar 13, 2011 14:14:38 GMT
Yesterday morning the filament had an explosion. A big piece erupted on solar atmosphere. I take a picture of the filament today. When i gather my photographic tools take a last look on the sun. And ohhhh my god. The filament making more more bigger. I can`t believe in my eyes. www.solar-007.eu/
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Post by Bob k6tr on Mar 13, 2011 18:07:23 GMT
Bob k6tr> Unless some new regions emerge on the earth facing side of the > sun next week we will probably be in for a quiet spell ... These quiet spells are artifacts created by our inability to measure solar activity (SN & SFI) on the far side. There was a similar lull a two weeks ago (oval), but as you can see from the trend line below, it really had no impact on the trend. Going up, even if we can't see it all the time. :-| The data you provide is from the earth facing side of the sun and clearly shows the both the Sunspot Number and SFI increasing. These same metrics will be declining over the next week. Scientist have found the phenomenon of "Active Longitudes" with regards to Solar Activity. As the Sun Roates at approximately a 27 Day Period it stands to reason there will be segments of Longitude that are relatively devoid of Active Regions. We are in the process of entering one of those segments hence the "Quiet Spell".
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Post by af4ex on Mar 13, 2011 19:22:19 GMT
@ k6tr > The data you provide is from the earth facing side of the sun ... [Referring to the N0NBH SolarGraph Widget] For any instant of time on the X-axis, yes, it shows the Earth-facing data. But, since the X-axis covers 30 days of time (and since LONGITUDE=TIME) it in effect provides us data from _all_ sides of the sun, longitudes -180 to +180! www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
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Post by Bob k6tr on Mar 14, 2011 4:09:22 GMT
@ k6tr > The data you provide is from the earth facing side of the sun ... [Referring to the N0NBH SolarGraph Widget] For any instant of time on the X-axis, yes, it shows the Earth-facing data. But, since the X-axis covers 30 days of time (and since LONGITUDE=TIME) it in effect provides us data from _all_ sides of the sun, longitudes -180 to +180! www.hamqsl.com/solar.htmlI was looking at the Realtime Display on the lefthand side of the Widget. Which is really neither here nor there. What I should have done was redirect you back to my original post which you obviously didn't read. Although the term "quiet spell" can be interpretted broadly I was talking about the daily variation in Solar Activity. I was very explicit about that in the post using terms like days and week. Solar Activity does roughly follow a 27 Day Cycle that coincides with it's rotation. I also initiated the post by pointing out the prospect of new regions emerging based upon GONG and SDO Seismic Data. Please point out to me where I said the overall trend in Solar Activity was dropping or even changing. I was merely pointing out what solar conditions we could expect in the next week to 10 days. Earthside Solar Activity has been a standard way of measuring solar activity for the simple reason there was no way of measuring farside activity on the sun until GONG was set up and the GOLF Experiment was launch aboard SOHO in the Mid 90s. Despite the fact that NASA has developed the means to identify new areas that emerge on the farside of the sun over the last 15 years yet it has clung to the same numbering scheme for active regions where every region is assigned a new number as it rotates over the East Limb of the sun whether it is a new region or a returning region. It would seem to me that possessing information about when new regions emerge and their rate of emegence could provide useful information about heliospheric research. Nonetheless as long as the methodology of measurement remains consistent the "artifacts" will balance or cancel themselves out. That is one of the key aspects of research that scientists look for when they uncover old data in order to determine its validity. Work that doesn't meet that criterea is deemed junk and tossed.
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Post by af4ex on Mar 14, 2011 11:51:01 GMT
Bob k6tr> Please point out to me where I said the overall trend in > Solar Activity was dropping ... I think we're in agreement that the show is not over yet. I was merely pointing out that the N0NBH widget is useful for seeing long-term trends, and so, for slowly-changing stuff, it lets you see the assymetrical layout of the activity. I'm very much interested in the GONG research. I think you guys are in a position to solve some of the big mysteries of the sun. (I still think that "Chladni pattern" I observed a few weeks ago might have something to do with seismic standing waves: solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1558&page=2#64280 )
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Post by yo5owb on Mar 15, 2011 0:30:35 GMT
Hi guys, I'm newbie here and reading hard older posts to know what's happening here Look what I just sow in attachment Attachments:
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Post by yo5owb on Mar 15, 2011 0:34:18 GMT
And at the same time this printscreen Can explain what is happening there ? How are we (hams) affected Regards, YO5OWB - Septy Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Mar 15, 2011 1:07:41 GMT
yo5owbHi Septy, Welcome to SolarCycle24! The blackout was almost certainly caused by the M4.2 flare from Active Region 11169, which peaked around 1952Z. The x-rays from these large flares travel at the speed of light, so the effect is seen within minutes. The x-rays ionize air molecules in the D-Layer, which greatly increases absorption, causing a radio blackout. You can see this effect in the chart below, which is the HAARP riometer, which shows a huge increase (red) in absorption at the time of the flare. There was also a smaller C-class flare aound 2350Z, whose effect a few minutes later, you can also see. Info about the riometer here: 137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/riometer/riom2_sel.cgiThe chart that you posted is for solar wind, charged particles from the sun, which also affect RF propagation, but takes several days to travel from Sun to Earth. John/af4ex Attachments:
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Post by Bob k6tr on Mar 15, 2011 1:07:56 GMT
Hi guys, I'm newbie here and reading hard older posts to know what's happening here Look what I just sow in attachment The graphic shows radio signal absorption rsulting from a solar flare. The impact to Hams is relative low unless you like to operate 160 Meters or below. Sometimes when we have a very strong flare the effects extended up to 20 Meters. But it's fun to look at.
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Post by heather on Mar 15, 2011 3:28:07 GMT
af4ex and lsvalgaard can you point me in the right direction for a formula for solar flares? Your postings are very intriguing www.solarflareeffects.com
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Post by af4ex on Mar 15, 2011 10:49:35 GMT
af4ex and lsvalgaard can you point me in the right direction for a formula for solar flares? Your postings are very intriguing www.solarflareeffects.comThere is no formula for a flare, at least not in closed mathematical form. Solar flares are enormous explosions, which occur in or near active regions ("sunspots"). An analogy: flares are to active regaions what lightning bolts are to rain showers. Not every shower produces lightning, and once in a while a bolt appears out of the blue. Likewise, flares occur mostly in active regions, which are huge, planet-sized magnetic storms. That's just an analogy The underlying mechanisms are entirely different. For more information start with Wikipedia and follow the hyperlinks that interest you: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare
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