Solar Cycle 24 Main Discussion XI

[af4ex]

The Dominion Observatory in Canada has released the monthly solar flux averages for Sept 2011: 136.68 sfu (adjusted for 1 au)! (compared to 104.16sfu for August).

Monthly averages of Solar 10.7 cm flux:
Year Mon Obsflux Adjflux Absflux
2011 8 101.61 104.16 93.74
2011 9 135.27 136.68 123.01


Here's the monthly flux averages since Feb 1947 (when Covington began measuring 2800MHz flux):
ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/monthly_averages/solflux_monthly_average.txt
www.spaceweather.ca/sx-6-eng.php

Can anyone explain why the plotted values don't agree with the tabulated values?

[lsvalgaard]

Oct 4, 2011 22:03:15 GMT af4ex said:

The Dominion Observatory in Canada has released the monthly solar flux averages for Sept 2011: 136.68 sfu (adjusted for 1 au)! (compared to 104.16sfu for August).

Monthly averages of Solar 10.7 cm flux:
Year Mon Obsflux Adjflux Absflux
2011 8 101.61 104.16 93.74
2011 9 135.27 136.68 123.01


Here's the monthly flux averages since Feb 1947 (when Covington began measuring 2800MHz flux):
ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/monthly_averages/solflux_monthly_average.txt
www.spaceweather.ca/sx-6-eng.php

Can anyone explain why the plotted values don't agree with the tabulated values?

The plotted values are the 'real' flux with is 10% smaller than the 'adjusted' flux. This was determined back in the 1970s, but nobody cares what the real flux is.

[yargkram]

Sorry for my overly simplistic question. I’ve been watching the sun and this site for a number of years now. Generally, I just watch. When I started watchinig the sun I was really excited about seeing a record sun spot cycle and then disappointed when the predictions were significantly dampened down. Now it appears that the cycle is ramping up significantly faster than normal. (My impression) So is this cycle heading into a phase closer to the earlier predictions, peaking early or simply on schedule? This cycle seems unusually unpredictable. Is that a correct impression? Or is this just the way it goes? Thanks

[lsvalgaard]

Oct 6, 2011 0:42:24 GMT yargkram said:

Sorry for my overly simplistic question. I’ve been watching the sun and this site for a number of years now. Generally, I just watch. When I started watchinig the sun I was really excited about seeing a record sun spot cycle and then disappointed when the predictions were significantly dampened down. Now it appears that the cycle is ramping up significantly faster than normal. (My impression) So is this cycle heading into a phase closer to the earlier predictions, peaking early or simply on schedule? This cycle seems unusually unpredictable. Is that a correct impression? Or is this just the way it goes? Thanks

small cycles have lots of ups and downs, compare cycles 14 and 24:

[yargkram]

Thanks for your help and I can see what you mean about the erratic nature of small cycles but upon looking at other cycles there seems to be some indication of erratic cycles associated with some more significant cycles. I am attaching a link which compares the current cycle to solar cycle 10 which was also a slow starter. That cycle resulted in a fairly significant cycle. Certainly even if this cycle follows SC10 it will not be on the scale of the last couple of cycles but certainly more significant than the current predictions. Also, do erratic cycles tend to lend themselves to the unexpected explosive events such as the Carrington Event seen in cycle 9 or do these events have no relationship to such things. My interest is related to my work in the electric utility industry. I am curious whether current solar conditions place the grid at greater risk. Thanks and I promise I will get out of the way of more thoughtful interactions.

www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp2.html

[lsvalgaard]

Oct 6, 2011 11:59:13 GMT yargkram said:

Thanks for your help and I can see what you mean about the erratic nature of small cycles but upon looking at other cycles there seems to be some indication of erratic cycles associated with some more significant cycles. I am attaching a link which compares the current cycle to solar cycle 10 which was also a slow starter. That cycle resulted in a fairly significant cycle. Certainly even if this cycle follows SC10 it will not be on the scale of the last couple of cycles but certainly more significant than the current predictions. Also, do erratic cycles tend to lend themselves to the unexpected explosive events such as the Carrington Event seen in cycle 9 or do these events have no relationship to such things. My interest is related to my work in the electric utility industry. I am curious whether current solar conditions place the grid at greater risk. Thanks and I promise I will get out of the way of more thoughtful interactions.

www.solen.info/solar/cyclcomp2.html

the sun is a messy place. the prediction of the small cycle was not based on the slow rise, but on the small polar fields observed already back in 2003-2004.

[yargkram]

Thanks!

[N9AAT]

So, Dr. I, do you think there IS or is NOT much chance of a Carrington Event this time? And was there anything we can know today from SS09 that might have predicted what happened?

I guess you could spend days thinking up things that might go awry if another happened now. I wonder if the I-Pads would go first.

[miedosoracing]

miedosoracing said:

Anyone notice the sun has a sort of line of sunspots around it?

Now there seems to be two distinct rings around the sun. northern half and southern. Very interesting...

[justsomeguy]

Rings of sunspots? Yes, that is pretty neat. I think is is relatively common as the sunspots move from the poles to the equator over time. Maunder described it in his butterfly diagrams, still used today, over a century ago.

www.windows2universe.org/sun/activity/butterfly.html

[af4ex]

> ... two distinct rings around the sun.
> northern half and southern. Very interesting...

Yes very interesting, and they are somewhat evenly spaced on those rings.

It seems to be a repeat of the same phenomenon we observed here during the first big SC24 surge back in Feb 2011.

solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=1558&page=2#64280

Here's a view of it taken in Calcium-K UV light, active spots not as bright as EUV of course, but they're even more regularly spaced (except for that bottom right one. In both images) [Thanks Theo. Great photo!]

Are these just 'random' patterns coincidentally aligned? I don't think so. I think their placement suggests they could be modeled as a "solution" to the wave equation under some particular set of parameters and boundary conditions, which might be associated with surges like these.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wave_equation

But I've only been watching the Sun since 2010. Don't know if these kinds of patterns have been seen before.

Perhaps Dr. Svalgaard can give us more insight here.
:-|

Attachments:

[jcarels]

Lot's of sunspots today. 10 groups are visible. I had a SSN of 170 ;D.
This could be maximum activity levels for this cycle.

[THEO BAKALEXIS]

Hi guys from greece. Bad weather the last days here.

I have a question. I observe for a lot of days a big increase of activity from Ecuador of disk and to the northern solar pole. Contrary to Ecuador and to the southern pole the things it is very calm. I feel as if I see working only the half solar disk.
For example today we have certain areas also in the two hemispheres. The areas of northern hemisphere give brillancies in opposition with those of southerner that for despite very big interval are deads.
Maybe like some activity has destroyed energy the southern hemisphere........?????????

YG... sorry for the bad inglish. Try with translator.

[af4ex]

Hi Theo,
Some confusion in your message:
The word Ισημερινός ("ismerinos") means both 'equator' and 'Equador' in English, so it sounds like you are referring to that South American country ;D

I think you're wondering why the solar activity is concentrated mainly north of the solar equator. That has been mentioned on this board by others too.

I think these are just random fluctuations. Nothing remarkable is going on, (except the spots do seem to be "clumping up" along two lines, in an interesting, "Chladni-like", way :-| )

Also, looking at the sun in visible light doesn't give a complete picture of magnetic activity, especially with L&P effect dimming the spots. If you look at the magnetogram on the Solarham home page you see the magnetic activity is actually more uniformly spread across the solar disk.



John/af4ex

[THEO BAKALEXIS]

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