Hi Dr... would you be having a gut feeling that a magnetic reversal is about to occur? With the lack of sunspots, is there a dynamic field building rather than localized fields?
The North pole has already reversed. The South pole has at least another year to go. The field reversal comes from sunspot fields drifting up from lower latitudes. for the south pole to reverse we need some activity in the South.
Is it possible this is one of the causes of Grand Minima? Namely, never enough magnetism to reverse the field thus long slow quiet cycles persist for very long periods? I know that is not the current model, but...is it possible or just wrong?
The North pole has already reversed. The South pole has at least another year to go. The field reversal comes from sunspot fields drifting up from lower latitudes. for the south pole to reverse we need some activity in the South.
So the sun currently has two south poles?
yep. this happens every reversal: the two poles don't reverse at the same time. There can be 1-2 years difference.
Last Edit: Apr 14, 2012 21:51:59 GMT by lsvalgaard
OK, lets get some random bet going based on hunches. The science is probably strongly against me, but I am betting there has never been a solar cycle like this one in the history of the truly instrumented sun. I bet the flux never gets back over the predicted red line this cycle. That would require this cycle not to be like solar cycle 14, as Dr. Svalgaard predicts (and lets face it, the smart money goes with him).
yep. this happens every reversal: the two poles don't reverse at the same time. There can be 1-2 years difference.
Leif, A magnet consists of a north and a south pole with equal strenght. Can you show a picture of the magnetic lines on the Sun with two south poles? I suppose the sun has not become a monopole ;D!
yep. this happens every reversal: the two poles don't reverse at the same time. There can be 1-2 years difference.
Leif, A magnet consists of a north and a south pole with equal strenght. Can you show a picture of the magnetic lines on the Sun with two south poles? I suppose the sun has not become a monopole ;D!
The sun is not a bar magnet. There are thousands of magnetic poles on the sun. Here www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ are some field line maps [bottom row].
Leif, A magnet consists of a north and a south pole with equal strenght. Can you show a picture of the magnetic lines on the Sun with two south poles? I suppose the sun has not become a monopole ;D!
The sun is not a bar magnet. There are thousands of magnetic poles on the sun. Here www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ are some field line maps [bottom row].
Dr. Svalgaard,
1. Recently, the following picture was distributed by The Asahi Shimbun: ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201204200075 The Sun is presented as having a four polar structure. But if the sun is not a bar magnet, it cannot be presented as a quadrupole! Do you agree with this? 2. hinode.nao.ac.jp/news/120419PressRelease/index_e.shtml : These latest Hinode observations suggest that the global magnetic field of the Sun will become different from the normal bipolar configuration. What is the meaning of this statement? I conclude that sun has entered in a special status, different of what is known from earlier observations.
The sun is not a bar magnet. There are thousands of magnetic poles on the sun. Here www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/ are some field line maps [bottom row].
Dr. Svalgaard,
1. Recently, the following picture was distributed by The Asahi Shimbun: ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201204200075 The Sun is presented as having a four polar structure. But if the sun is not a bar magnet, it cannot be presented as a quadrupole! Do you agree with this? 2. hinode.nao.ac.jp/news/120419PressRelease/index_e.shtml : These latest Hinode observations suggest that the global magnetic field of the Sun will become different from the normal bipolar configuration. What is the meaning of this statement? I conclude that sun has entered in a special status, different of what is known from earlier observations.
This happens in every solar cycle, so the Japanese researchers [or their PR-agent] are overstating their case.
I believe Dr. Svalgaard is implying they may be hyping their finding in order to gain attention, as is common today in science. Folks seems rather open to press release science instead of the peer reviewed kind.
Hi there Where can I see the latest trend in sunspots such as on Solarham.com? If I plot myself with the given monthly values, we have reached the cycle 24 peak already then? Is this correct and the trend moving downwards?
