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Post by twawki on Oct 20, 2008 8:21:50 GMT
Here is the latest analysis of the MEI www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/which predicts that a La Nina is likely. "Consistent with re-emerging La Niña conditions, there are now more observed key anomalies in the MEI component fields that exceed or equal one standard deviation, or one sigma (compare to loadings figure), with several of them flagging typical La Niña features, while El Niño-like features are still present as well." One thing, and all of you know how I feel about agw, I don't believe that solar minimums and maximums directly effect phases of the PDO or AMO. We were going to slip into a neg. PDO whether we were at a minimum or maximum. Salinity and the thermohaline circulation are probably a bigger factor and I think "tipping points" are a mechanism involved. Now lets agree on one thing, while people are still posting on this site and it seems like fewer and fewer do it every day; Lets not dignify agw by capitalizing the acronym! great link DD "La Niña appears on the verge of a comeback, consistent with MEI behavior in the last decade of fall seasons. " I think this is the weather pattern we are now going to get used to. Still cooler here n definitely wetter.
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Post by fruitbat on Oct 20, 2008 10:49:13 GMT
I am very pleased that people think that we may get another La Nina. In Toowoomba Queensland where I live we have been in trouble for a number of years. Even during the last La Nina event we hardly got any rain and our dam levels still remain at critical levels.
I see a lot of data but there is one source that has been neglected here and that is coral bore results, a study conducted at the Great Barrier Reef about twenty years ago. You can ascertain the general amount of rainfall for about five thousand years as coral does not grow well in wet years when the rivers disgourge silt and nutrient into the waters of the reef. Conversly in dry years the coral growth is good. This forms a series of ring like structures similar to tree rings. It was found that there have been some very savage El Ninos in the past particularly during 1770 that one was a monster with a very long duration. I cannot comment about the data but I think that there is a certain randomness in the pattern of La Nina /El Nino. How that is explained well I am learning and I am interested in the forum.
But for my towns sake I hope this next La Nina comes off and I hope we get some of the expected rain. We did not get much during the last La Nina Northern NSW received the rainfall instead. Sometimes I think the only way to ensure water supply is to develop a reliable wind water harvester as even our groundwater reserves are finite.
To my American friends an El Nino is is not a welcome occurance on the Eastern Seaboard. I gather it is the opposite in CA. Some poor farmers have been known to hang themselves over here just on the news of one developing. usually we already have a crippling long before you folks know there is an El Nino on the way.
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Post by twawki on Oct 20, 2008 12:48:23 GMT
hey fruitbat Its looking good with monsoons forming again this year and there is the risk of severe cyclones but dont know how far south they will go with a la nina. Brisbane/Toowoomba may be out of reach. BOM stats on Toowoomba here; www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_041103.shtmlCurrent seasonal outlook is wetter; www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain.naus.shtmlbut not a lot wetter it looks like in your area - though this may change. "When the SOI is strongly positive (greater than +5 - it is currently around 13) trade winds blow strongly across the Pacific Ocean picking up moisture. In this situation, much of eastern Australia has a 75% chance of receiving greater than average rainfall. " www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Help/ElNinoSouthernOscillation/index.htmlThere are good predictions of rain for northern NSW and southern Qld over next few days hopefully this will keep up and well get more.
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Post by daffyduck on Oct 20, 2008 15:01:30 GMT
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Post by twawki on Oct 20, 2008 21:05:23 GMT
Thanks Daffy - how strong do you think this one will be?
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Post by solaroutput on Oct 21, 2008 0:24:21 GMT
Now lets agree on one thing, while people are still posting on this site and it seems like fewer and fewer do it every day; Lets not dignify agw by capitalizing the acronym! I just want to chime in that I had the "wind" taken out of my sails when the old forum was shut down and none of its content was carried over...that was a poor choice and as I result I am much less likely to post since who knows if that will happen again plus all my previous content is now "lost"..which s.u.x.
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Post by pidgey on Oct 21, 2008 3:03:35 GMT
I thought it was just going to be unchangeable so I went looking after reading your comment. Yep... looks like it's gone, gone, gone!
Dang. I hate it when that happens.
Oh, well... life goes on!
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Post by daffyduck on Oct 21, 2008 14:57:47 GMT
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Post by dopeydog on Oct 21, 2008 16:46:33 GMT
Nothing is looking like anything more than a weak La Nina. The CFS ensemble mean is showing about 6 months of -.5 which would be enough by a month. And the mean hits -1.0 in February. But last year everything was looking a whole lot colder and the CFS had runs dropping below -3.0 . They actually had to expand the chart to plot it. But a weak La Nina won't warm anything up much either and this is an accumulative effect I believe. The next serious La Nina will very likely start out with a much colder planet than in 1999 or even 2007. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images/nino34SSTSea.gif
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Post by pidgey on Oct 21, 2008 16:55:54 GMT
It's going to be nasty and we're going to lose another half-degree C, that's how.
Note: I was answering a question that seems to be gone now, why I don't know. The question was something like how another La Nina would affect the winter in the U.S., if memory serves. And I think TWAWKI was the one who posted it.
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Post by ron on Oct 21, 2008 20:16:43 GMT
In re: the forum... While I am very grateful to Kevin and the other mods for giving of their time and expertise to run this site, IMHO it is PURE FOLLY to host your forum with a company that doesn't let you own your data... the posts. This puts all of the posts at risk of being consumed again if proboards decides to shut down or if Kevin wants to migrate away. I offerred to host the forum for them on their own domain's URL, in an account I would donate on my server, but my offer wasn't accepted. I further offered to set it up to try to make the forum self-sustaining financially without subjecting the membership to any ads or begs for donations. :shrug: I liked the thread with all of the icebreaker photos...
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Post by twawki on Oct 21, 2008 23:13:55 GMT
It's going to be nasty and we're going to lose another half-degree C, that's how. Note: I was answering a question that seems to be gone now, why I don't know. The question was something like how another La Nina would affect the winter in the U.S., if memory serves. And I think TWAWKI was the one who posted it. hey Pidge yep I posted that dunno why it would have gone - seems to happen with my posts every now and then - but your memory serves your correct. And I think were gonna see temps continue on their downward spiral. Though the 'official data' here doesn't support the cold streak we've been having this last year or more many people been saying its the coldest they can remember. Another question I have - and haven't checked the data to back it up but I generally check the weather maps daily - low pressure and high pressure system values seem to be higher during la ninas than what they were during el ninos - any comments anyone? Or does the solar cycle have any effect on the value of pressure? Snow to the mountains west of Sydney today and cold brrrr. Lots of cloud building up around Australia ATM. Temps well below normal!
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Post by twawki on Oct 21, 2008 23:18:40 GMT
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Post by twawki on Oct 21, 2008 23:24:52 GMT
Nothing is looking like anything more than a weak La Nina. The CFS ensemble mean is showing about 6 months of -.5 which would be enough by a month. And the mean hits -1.0 in February. But last year everything was looking a whole lot colder and the CFS had runs dropping below -3.0 . They actually had to expand the chart to plot it. But a weak La Nina won't warm anything up much either and this is an accumulative effect I believe. The next serious La Nina will very likely start out with a much colder planet than in 1999 or even 2007. www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images/nino34SSTSea.gifthings seem to be building - continued low solar, cooling PDO, la nina building, increasing cloud cover etc - I tend to think at least here in Oz were going back to the climate of the 1940s - mid 1970s - with the potential for colder. As to how much colder just have to keep watching the sun. South eastern Australia then was wet with a lot more snow - very good for the rural sector which is coming out of drought. Have a farm and this year have got consistently good spring rains and the area is lush, dams full etc. A few years ago when I bought it it was brown and dry.
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Post by kenfeldman on Oct 21, 2008 23:39:36 GMT
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