New La Nina?

[Acolyte]

And yet again, when you look at actual data it proves not to be the case. Newspapers & other media are not your best source for data - they have pre-defined positions & with Investigative Journalism being defined as 'willing to go see if there's a press release on the fax' it is unlikely we're going to see real data anytime soo from them.

Turns out this year (past 3 month average) is wetter than it has been for the past 2 years.

see: ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/rainfall/iadiff/2year/3month/colour/latest.vc.gif

[nautonnier]

Oct 21, 2008 3:03:35 GMT pidgey said:

I thought it was just going to be unchangeable so I went looking after reading your comment. Yep... looks like it's gone, gone, gone!

Dang. I hate it when that happens.

Oh, well... life goes on!

Are there not Web archival services that have recorded every page that ever lived? (It must be like collecting one gets carried away ) Nevertheless, there may be a way to retrieve what is not simply available.

[pidgey]

Oct 21, 2008 23:13:55 GMT twawki said:

Oct 21, 2008 16:55:54 GMT pidgey said:

It's going to be nasty and we're going to lose another half-degree C, that's how.

Note: I was answering a question that seems to be gone now, why I don't know. The question was something like how another La Nina would affect the winter in the U.S., if memory serves. And I think TWAWKI was the one who posted it.

hey Pidge yep I posted that dunno why it would have gone - seems to happen with my posts every now and then - but your memory serves your correct. And I think were gonna see temps continue on their downward spiral. Though the 'official data' here doesn't support the cold streak we've been having this last year or more many people been saying its the coldest they can remember.

Another question I have - and haven't checked the data to back it up but I generally check the weather maps daily - low pressure and high pressure system values seem to be higher during la ninas than what they were during el ninos - any comments anyone? Or does the solar cycle have any effect on the value of pressure?

Snow to the mountains west of Sydney today and cold brrrr. Lots of cloud building up around Australia ATM. Temps well below normal!

La Ninas are very convective events, and so is what's causing the PDO in the cooling phase. Perhaps it's a point that should be explored more in the GLAAMorous Tilmari thread...

[Acolyte]

Oct 22, 2008 1:51:24 GMT nautonnier said:

Oct 21, 2008 3:03:35 GMT pidgey said:

I thought it was just going to be unchangeable so I went looking after reading your comment. Yep... looks like it's gone, gone, gone!

Dang. I hate it when that happens.

Oh, well... life goes on!

Are there not Web archival services that have recorded every page that ever lived? (It must be like collecting one gets carried away ) Nevertheless, there may be a way to retrieve what is not simply available.

There are - not every page but quite a lot is at archive.org - for the old forums

[ron]

...or the Google cache -- if it was indexed by Google, it's likely still available.

[twawki]

Oct 21, 2008 23:39:36 GMT kenfeldman said:

South eastern Australia then was wet with a lot more snow - very good for the rural sector which is coming out of drought. Have a farm and this year have got consistently good spring rains and the area is lush, dams full etc. A few years ago when I bought it it was brown and dry.

Glad you're doing so well. Your fellow farmers apparently aren't:

Asa Wahlquist, Rural writer | October 11, 2008
THE long drought affecting southern Australia is officially the worst on record.

Bureau of Meteorology head of climate analysis David Jones said the 12-year drought that was devastating southwest Western Australia, southeast South Australia, Victoria and northern Tasmania was "very severe and without historical precedent".

Drought has gripped the Murray-Darling Basin since late 2001. It has worsened this year, as rainfall totals for the past three years have set record lows in many regions, including many critical to the Murray River.

Dr Jones said the rainfall figures were similar to the severe drought that lasted from 1939 to 1945, and the Federation drought, which ran from 1895 to 1903.

"Those three droughts, in terms of rainfall, are comparable," he said. "But this drought is a lot hotter than those two previous droughts. And those two droughts finished, whereas this one is continuing."

He said temperatures were about 1C hotter than the previous droughts.

"That is substantially hotter, and that one degree is a global warming signal," he said.

Full story at this link:

www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24478392-30417,00.html

Bureau of Meteorology is biased at best and pushes the AGW pseudo science unconscionably. Slightly hot day and the bells are ringing, record cold day and not a whisper.

My comment was that we are in a cooling PDO with cooling La Nina which favours cold wet conditions - do you deny this?

[twawki]

Oct 21, 2008 23:39:36 GMT kenfeldman said:

South eastern Australia then was wet with a lot more snow - very good for the rural sector which is coming out of drought. Have a farm and this year have got consistently good spring rains and the area is lush, dams full etc. A few years ago when I bought it it was brown and dry.

Glad you're doing so well. Your fellow farmers apparently aren't:

Asa Wahlquist, Rural writer | October 11, 2008
THE long drought affecting southern Australia is officially the worst on record.

Bureau of Meteorology head of climate analysis David Jones said the 12-year drought that was devastating southwest Western Australia, southeast South Australia, Victoria and northern Tasmania was "very severe and without historical precedent".

Drought has gripped the Murray-Darling Basin since late 2001. It has worsened this year, as rainfall totals for the past three years have set record lows in many regions, including many critical to the Murray River.

Dr Jones said the rainfall figures were similar to the severe drought that lasted from 1939 to 1945, and the Federation drought, which ran from 1895 to 1903.

"Those three droughts, in terms of rainfall, are comparable," he said. "But this drought is a lot hotter than those two previous droughts. And those two droughts finished, whereas this one is continuing."

He said temperatures were about 1C hotter than the previous droughts.

"That is substantially hotter, and that one degree is a global warming signal," he said.

Full story at this link:

www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24478392-30417,00.html

One other thing the Chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, and Secretary of the WMO, Michel Jarraud, and the National Academy of Sciences all acknowledge that warming has stopped since 1998. Do you think they are wrong?

[pidgey]

Oct 22, 2008 22:24:11 GMT twawki said:

One other thing the Chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, and Secretary of the WMO, Michel Jarraud, and the National Academy of Sciences all acknowledge that warming has stopped since 1998. Do you think they are wrong?

I'd be willing to bet that they'd bandy the semantics there about the warming being at a temporary plateau rather than it actually having stopped.

However, if you were to ask all the virgins that you KNOW they're burning to death as sacrifices to get the warming started again, they'd tell you in no uncertain terms how hot it's getting!

[twawki]

ROFL get your point but comparing these guys to virgins !!!!!

[twawki]

Can across an interesting piece of info today "during El Ninos (1998 was a super El Nino) heat flows out of the ocean and into the air". If this is the case then if an El Nino coincides with a PDO shift to cooling phase which coincides with low solar output (minimum, or extended minimum as we are having) then the cooling effects would be amplified and not only would the oceans be cooling but also receiving less heat, meaning faster and more extended cooling.

As the oceans drive the climate then this would mean the concurrent existence of all three drives a stronger cooling force that is not able to revert until the sun comes out of its slumber, increases TSI and reduces cloud cover. In the meantime we get a domino effect of increased cooling in the oceans and the atmosphere, growing polar icecaps, increased snowfall etc.

Until the sun becomes strong enough to revert this signal (not looking likely at the moment) we stay in a cooling cycle.

[nautonnier]

Oct 23, 2008 2:10:58 GMT twawki said:

Can across an interesting piece of info today "during El Ninos (1998 was a super El Nino) heat flows out of the ocean and into the air". If this is the case then if an El Nino coincides with a PDO shift to cooling phase which coincides with low solar output (minimum, or extended minimum as we are having) then the cooling effects would be amplified and not only would the oceans be cooling but also receiving less heat, meaning faster and more extended cooling.

As the oceans drive the climate then this would mean the concurrent existence of all three drives a stronger cooling force that is not able to revert until the sun comes out of its slumber, increases TSI and reduces cloud cover. In the meantime we get a domino effect of increased cooling in the oceans and the atmosphere, growing polar icecaps, increased snowfall etc.

Until the sun becomes strong enough to revert this signal (not looking likely at the moment) we stay in a cooling cycle.

There was a long and involved discussion on this on the old board - where the El Nino was seen as a negative feedback venting ocean heat content into the atmosphere. This must be the case as the heat from the ocean is removed and radiated (albeit through GHG) out to space. This as you say could explain the drop in deep sea and surface temperatures and the subsequent La Ninas.

[twawki]

Oct 23, 2008 2:33:05 GMT nautonnier said:

Oct 23, 2008 2:10:58 GMT twawki said:

Can across an interesting piece of info today "during El Ninos (1998 was a super El Nino) heat flows out of the ocean and into the air". If this is the case then if an El Nino coincides with a PDO shift to cooling phase which coincides with low solar output (minimum, or extended minimum as we are having) then the cooling effects would be amplified and not only would the oceans be cooling but also receiving less heat, meaning faster and more extended cooling.

As the oceans drive the climate then this would mean the concurrent existence of all three drives a stronger cooling force that is not able to revert until the sun comes out of its slumber, increases TSI and reduces cloud cover. In the meantime we get a domino effect of increased cooling in the oceans and the atmosphere, growing polar icecaps, increased snowfall etc.

Until the sun becomes strong enough to revert this signal (not looking likely at the moment) we stay in a cooling cycle.

There was a long and involved discussion on this on the old board - where the El Nino was seen as a negative feedback venting ocean heat content into the atmosphere. This must be the case as the heat from the ocean is removed and radiated (albeit through GHG) out to space. This as you say could explain the drop in deep sea and surface temperatures and the subsequent La Ninas.

aaaah thanks nauty - are those threads gone forever?

[nautonnier]

Oct 23, 2008 11:53:27 GMT twawki said:

Oct 23, 2008 2:33:05 GMT nautonnier said:

There was a long and involved discussion on this on the old board - where the El Nino was seen as a negative feedback venting ocean heat content into the atmosphere. This must be the case as the heat from the ocean is removed and radiated (albeit through GHG) out to space. This as you say could explain the drop in deep sea and surface temperatures and the subsequent La Ninas.

aaaah thanks nauty - are those threads gone forever?

Apparently they may have been captured on the Web archival sites such as Google - there is another thread somewhere here that gave some references - if I find it I'll hang it on here too.

[magellan]

Oct 23, 2008 2:10:58 GMT twawki said:

Can across an interesting piece of info today "during El Ninos (1998 was a super El Nino) heat flows out of the ocean and into the air". If this is the case then if an El Nino coincides with a PDO shift to cooling phase which coincides with low solar output (minimum, or extended minimum as we are having) then the cooling effects would be amplified and not only would the oceans be cooling but also receiving less heat, meaning faster and more extended cooling.

As the oceans drive the climate then this would mean the concurrent existence of all three drives a stronger cooling force that is not able to revert until the sun comes out of its slumber, increases TSI and reduces cloud cover. In the meantime we get a domino effect of increased cooling in the oceans and the atmosphere, growing polar icecaps, increased snowfall etc.

Until the sun becomes strong enough to revert this signal (not looking likely at the moment) we stay in a cooling cycle.

Bravo!!

That is precisely what I've been shouting for several months.

Roy Spencer's latest article on PDO explains a lot as well.
www.weatherquestions.com/Global-warming-natural-PDO.htm

We will not see the full effects of declining solar radiation absorption until the oceans have released sufficient heat. I'm still standing on my prediction of slipping temperatures beginning in mid-October, La Nina or not.

There will be monthly blips of slight warming as the oceans belch out heat in phases, but overall cooling will be the dominant factor.

Is PDO and solar minimum mutually exclusive? No matter, it all appears to center around the oceans ability to store and accumulate heat. Stop replenishing it, and it is only a matter of time before the rest of ~30% of earth's surface begins to cool.

Just because certain arrogant solar scientists dismiss the sun does not make it true. There are other well qualified scientists who disagree with their peers. We simply don't have enough understanding of earth and sun climate mechanisms to know yet. It is getting old listening to some solar scientists writing off the sun.

[pidgey]

Oct 23, 2008 16:40:19 GMT magellan said:

It is getting old listening to some solar scientists writing off the sun.

Behind closed doors, I wouldn't be surprised if many of them are more than a little nervous about the drop in solar wind pressure. To some extent, policy HAS been affected by their pronouncements and it's all too often a negative thing to have zigged when you should have zagged.