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Post by magellan on Nov 15, 2011 14:28:53 GMT
Magellan, I take it by your long winded answer that you can't name one field in production for over a decade that is not in decline. So is it not then a matter of simple math? Is new production making up for increased worldwide demand? If you take off your rose colored glasses the answer is clear. Barring a worldwide economic collapse the price of oil is going up over the long haul. Shallow cheap oil is a thing of the past. You said after ten years they are in decline. You cleverly don't define what decline is. If a well or field produces oil for 50 years, the logical conclusion is from day one it is in decline. There is no shortage of petroleum based fuel, that is my claim, and the evidence is irrefutable. Governments are creating artificial shortages by legislation and/or unelected unaccountable regulatory dictators. If you want to start a link war on examples of government stifling of energy production from oil, let's have a go.
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wylie
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 129
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Post by wylie on Nov 15, 2011 14:44:00 GMT
Magellan,
Always like your posts. Just to answer your query about the definition of the word "decline" as it applies to oil wells, oil fields, and whole countries. It could/should/is defined as the point at which the volume of production from the well/field/country is no longer increasing (i.e. when the slope of the number of barrels/tonnes of oil per unit time is not a positive number). It is NOT defined as the total amount of oil in the ground which as you correctly point out will always drop as the well/field/country extracts oil.
In answer to your general post, nearly ALL of the countries in the world (not just oil fields) that have been producing oil at high rates in the past are down past their peak. The US reached peak first (in 1970) at about 9.7 million barrels per day and now at about 5.0 million barrels per day. Despite the best oil extraction technology in the world and that includes all of the techniques that you can imagine and some that you haven't mentioned, and despite enormous price incentives to produce higher production, the producition level continues to decline. Other major areas of the world that are declining: North Sea, Alaska, Canada conventional oil, Mexico, Venuzuela, Southern Russia, China, etc., etc. Peak Oil is very very real. LOOK AT THE NUMBERS!!
IWYLIE
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wylie
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 129
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Post by wylie on Nov 15, 2011 16:35:48 GMT
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wylie
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 129
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Post by wylie on Nov 15, 2011 18:57:05 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 16, 2011 3:11:59 GMT
Magellan there is no shortage of petroleum based fuel. However there is a shortage of cheap, easily recovered and easily refined crude. Governmental red tape is a problem but it does not make oil fields go into decline nor does it stop the Chinese from adding millions of new automobiles ever year.
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 16, 2011 3:13:03 GMT
wylie, thanks for the common sense links concurring peak oil.
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Post by douglavers on Nov 16, 2011 11:03:28 GMT
Cheap oil is the problem. Looking at my own State [Victoria, Australia], we have what is thought to be the largest brown coal field on the planet. Nobody knows, because it has never been measured properly. Where they are mining it, the basic seam is about 250 metres thick, and the containing valley about 20 kms across. 150 kms away, at Bairnsdale, the seam is about 40 metres thick, and is believed to be continuous all the way.
This adds up to about 1 trillion tons of brown coal, perhaps thermally equivalent to about 200 billion tons of black coal.
To get back to the point, when this is heated anaerobically, light oil boils off in high yield. Carbon dust is left. At another guess, let us say the process is 20% efficient.
This gives an "oil equivalent" of about 40 billion tons, or about 240 billion barrels.
I believe the process is much simpler and cheaper than extracting oil from tar sands.
There are many lignite and peat bogs around the planet, to which this heating process might be applied.
i.e. No shortage of oil, but great shortage of capital, political will, and intelligence.
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Post by magellan on Nov 16, 2011 17:59:49 GMT
Magellan there is no shortage of petroleum based fuel. However there is a shortage of cheap, easily recovered and easily refined crude. Governmental red tape is a problem but it does not make oil fields go into decline nor does it stop the Chinese from adding millions of new automobiles ever year. Thus far we've heard only from one side of the issue ala ebrainish links to anti-energy essays. I often visit Masterresource. He is a guest host at WUWT today wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/16/help-settle-the-renewable-energy-debate-at-the-economist/What you refuse to acknowledge is we have at minimum 300 years of "fossil fuels" right here in the United States of America. You don't quantify what "cheap" is, but coal can be converted to gasoline for about $40/bbl, and much less IIRC using newly developed technologies. There is a strong anti-energy influence in Congress, largely led by Democrats who are nothing less than statists vying for control (their stated goal) of virtually every sector of our economic system, and it is not just "a problem". Their actions have placed us into to a very vulnerable position to the point of approaching a National Security crisis. If we don't secure a free and open flow of energy, our economy will crash no matter what one's stance is on the monetary situation. Not securing our own source of petroleum energy will surely trigger the inevitable monetary collapse and make it orders of magnitude worse. Sometime in the past I posted several articles on how the technology has been improving in recent years, driving the costs down for oil shale, and yes it would be CHEAPER than today's crude prices, but you won't find that on the Oil Drum or other Peak Oil propaganda sites. Using alternative methods to extract oil from the vast reserves available has evolved even in the last year alone. I'll do a search when time allows. It isn't pie-in-the-sky hypothetical; it is already being done on small scales. You and others who have this mindset that "cheap oil" will no longer be a reality, well it already isn't !!! So while the politicians bloviate, refusing to get the ball rolling on a large scale and begin allowing OIL COMPANIES and their satellites do what they do best, we will continue to be held hostage and bombarded by the academics dire predictions who've never gotten their hands dirty in their life, but yet somehow know better than those who have the knowledge and experience of actually getting the oil. Should we wait until gasoline prices reach $10-20/gallon and then decide something should be done? By then it will be too late. Economic malaise related to the dollar can cause that all by itself. When ethanol and other "bio fuels" were all the rage 5-6 years ago, many of us knew back then it was all a ruse. I bought into the ethanol scam for about 6 months until I thoroughly looked into the matter. It is nothing but a huge redistribution of wealth program; crony capitalism and artificial market meddling. I burned corn to heat my home for 5 seasons, now have geothermal; $567 total cost for heating and cooling the first year. If we listen the AGW nutbags who want to put the coal industry out of business, I would expect that number to double or triple in the coming years. This is why Americans need to boot out any and all Progressives and replace with pro-energy, pro-growth, pro-industry individuals that are true capitalists. BTW, have you been keeping track of the European situation?
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Post by glennkoks on Nov 17, 2011 7:24:20 GMT
Magellan, coal liquefaction on a scale large enough to make a dent in our gasoline demand would take years and years and cost billions.
No we should not wait until gasoline prices reach 10-20 dollars a gallon but its hard for refining companies to justify those types of expenditures. The free market will dictate when those costs are justified and the investment of that type of capital will yield returns large enough to start coal liquefaction. I certainly don't want the government to get involved.
I have been keeping track of the European situation. I am a little shocked that the Euro which may be on the verge of collapse is still trading at 1.36 to the dollar. More important is the American Banks resistance to divulge just how much exposure they have to Italy. I suspect that the answer is scary and a second financial crisis may not be too far off. My portfolio is on the sidelines and my wife's is next up. That being said I still do not buy into the doomsday economic scenarios.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 27, 2017 20:01:44 GMT
All that has to happen is for Saudi to stick another pipe in the ground. In case their pipe is bent, Iran or Iraq can. And if we get really desperate, Russia can.
I looked at buying a cheap Nissan Leaf today. (battery). Being the range is only 100 miles, I couldn't even get to GF or Winnipeg and back. In fact, I couldn't GET to Winnipeg, and GF might be a wish.
They are super inexpensive, low mileage. But.....insurance, lack of distance.......still thinking. Would save the Buick.....still thinking.
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Post by Ratty on Apr 27, 2017 22:29:46 GMT
All that has to happen is for Saudi to stick another pipe in the ground. In case their pipe is bent, Iran or Iraq can. And if we get really desperate, Russia can. I looked at buying a cheap Nissan Leaf today. (battery). Being the range is only 100 miles, I couldn't even get to GF or Winnipeg and back. In fact, I couldn't GET to Winnipeg, and GF might be a wish. They are super inexpensive, low mileage. But.....insurance, lack of distance.......still thinking. Would save the Buick.....still thinking. You got the solar panels to charge it, Sig?
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 27, 2017 23:15:03 GMT
All that has to happen is for Saudi to stick another pipe in the ground. In case their pipe is bent, Iran or Iraq can. And if we get really desperate, Russia can. I looked at buying a cheap Nissan Leaf today. (battery). Being the range is only 100 miles, I couldn't even get to GF or Winnipeg and back. In fact, I couldn't GET to Winnipeg, and GF might be a wish. They are super inexpensive, low mileage. But.....insurance, lack of distance.......still thinking. Would save the Buick.....still thinking. You got the solar panels to charge it, Sig? Naw, if I am going to get it, I do want to be able to drive it. (Or rather, Mrs Sig). IF I used solar panels, I might as well figure 100 miles per year of driving.
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 27, 2017 23:39:16 GMT
It's baaack! Oil Shortage Feared by 2020 as Discoveries Fall to Record LowInternational Energy Agency says U.S. shale won’t fill the void which could lead to petroleum shortages www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000{SNIP IMG} "Don’t expect output from U.S. shale producers to fill the void, the IEA said. American shale production is expected to grow by 2.3 million barrels a day or more over the next five years, but that isn’t enough to make up for declining output elsewhere." Now with the price of oil having been low in theory to drive the frackers out of business, but there was a glut that is only just coming to an end. The EROI would prohibit spending money to find yet more oil. So the article is based on the premise that searching for oil is a continuous business with the discovery rate set by what can be found and measured - this is incorrect. The commercial pressure is not to spend money on less easy to recover oil fields while the ROI compared to energy/cost expended ratio does not justify the exploration. I think this is a story that gets dragged out duplicated and refreshed every 5 years.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 28, 2017 5:06:21 GMT
All that has to happen is for Saudi to stick another pipe in the ground. In case their pipe is bent, Iran or Iraq can. And if we get really desperate, Russia can. I looked at buying a cheap Nissan Leaf today. (battery). Being the range is only 100 miles, I couldn't even get to GF or Winnipeg and back. In fact, I couldn't GET to Winnipeg, and GF might be a wish. They are super inexpensive, low mileage. But.....insurance, lack of distance.......still thinking. Would save the Buick.....still thinking. How are they with chains and snow drifts? Don;t know anything about the Leaf, but I think our old Prius would have high-centered on a very small dog.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 28, 2017 18:52:43 GMT
All that has to happen is for Saudi to stick another pipe in the ground. In case their pipe is bent, Iran or Iraq can. And if we get really desperate, Russia can. I looked at buying a cheap Nissan Leaf today. (battery). Being the range is only 100 miles, I couldn't even get to GF or Winnipeg and back. In fact, I couldn't GET to Winnipeg, and GF might be a wish. They are super inexpensive, low mileage. But.....insurance, lack of distance.......still thinking. Would save the Buick.....still thinking. How are they with chains and snow drifts? Don;t know anything about the Leaf, but I think our old Prius would have high-centered on a very small dog. They are worthless in the cold. The range drops to approx 35 miles, which won't round trip to much of anywhere here.
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