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Post by glennkoks on Dec 29, 2011 12:50:40 GMT
What happened to winter this year in the NH?. Much of the U.S. has been above normal since the October freak snowstorm. Europe seems to be well above average as well. Predicted effect of AGW or just weather?
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Post by justsomeguy on Dec 29, 2011 13:44:49 GMT
Probably just weather, but I sit here in Minnesota for the holidays and it is balmy and without snow.
Also, the reporters following the Iowa caucusses are commenting on the great weather this year versus caucusses past...
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Post by justsomeguy on Dec 29, 2011 14:34:40 GMT
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Post by magellan on Dec 30, 2011 5:39:08 GMT
Around 1980 it was 70 deg on Christmas day in Michigan. My mother was outside washing windows. We now have snow on the ground BTW. December is going to come in as one of the coldest of the decade, as will 2011. What to watch is the next 3-5 months. A few years ago I studied the UAH records going back about ten years. I noticed what appeared to be a pattern using only ocean TLT data and AMSR-E. Below is the last one from October 2009. Unfortunately UAH changed their baseline and now the AMSR-E ocean data died in October 2011 as I was going to update all the stuff (it is a pain), so the "project" was pretty much abandoned. I actually submitted some of it to David Stockwell who found it interesting. Using Hodrick-Prescott plugin for Excel, it drew out some what appeared to be some odd correlations of cycles within cycles and breakpoints of peak TLT temperatures when the ocean temps behave in a certain manner. This pattern looked pretty consistent over the the periods from 2002 onward. Below was the last one I did IIRC. When the oceans "converged", the poles "diverged", indicating the "cycle" (temp) had peaked and a downward slope was in the works. If you go back and look at what happened after Oct 2009, it fit the pattern of previous cycles. Now that justsomeguy mentioned the poles are at 'record' levels, I may take the time and see if the pattern holds true for 2011/2012. As I recall, the larger the divergence between the poles vs the tropics (not sure, will need to check notes), the larger the drop in 'global' temps in the coming months. It's been over two years so the ole memory will need to be refreshed. I may start from scratch if I can remember the details, but not having the AMSR-E data kind of puts a wrench in the works. However, just by eyeballing, we may be in for quite a large decline in 'global' temps in the coming 3-5 months, although January may be higher than December, but don't hold me to it yet You can see the quasi-pattern here as well. What did happen in 2009? Well, the tropics peaked, the poles diverged and viola!, the downward cycle began in 2010. See here vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt Here's another interesting tidbit. Note the volcano messed up the pattern in ~1992.
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 30, 2011 15:19:32 GMT
Magellen, thanks for the graphs, they are interesting. However, I don't see how this december is going to come in as one of the coldest of the decade. The NH has been warm all over.
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Post by justsomeguy on Dec 30, 2011 15:58:34 GMT
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Post by justsomeguy on Dec 30, 2011 16:02:33 GMT
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Dec 30, 2011 18:25:47 GMT
So, all of you have noticed. Ok, Ok, yes, those of us who live in Alaska have been selfishly keeping winter all to ourselves. It has snowed over 80 inches at my house so far this year. On my drive in this morning it was 0f and snowing which is just wrong. Usually it warms up to snow, so cold AND snow does not seem fair. Well, I just want to say that ya'll can have it! I've have about as much winter as I can stand. I don't usually get to this point until February or so... So I hope all of you get yours, and a happy new year! :-)
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Post by magellan on Dec 30, 2011 18:57:40 GMT
Dec is slated to come in very close to Nov per UAH. That will put Dec in #2 or #3 for the decade depending on the final results of course. Remember, "global" temperatures include oceans which comprise 70% of the earth's surface. Also, per Roy Spencer there will be an adjustment for spurious warm bias for the last few years as UAH and RSS have been diverging; both may need to be adjusted once the proper calibrations are carried out. discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_ch05.r002.txt
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Post by throttleup on Dec 30, 2011 21:28:24 GMT
So, all of you have noticed. Ok, Ok, yes, those of us who live in Alaska have been selfishly keeping winter all to ourselves. It has snowed over 80 inches at my house so far this year. On my drive in this morning it was 0f and snowing which is just wrong. Usually it warms up to snow, so cold AND snow does not seem fair. Well, I just want to say that ya'll can have it! I've have about as much winter as I can stand. I don't usually get to this point until February or so... So I hope all of you get yours, and a happy new year! :-) dontgetoutmuch, Not that it matters, but is 80 inches of snow a great deal more than usual at this date?
Nonetheless, it is good to know winter is here -- it's just concentrated in Alaska!
All the best to you and yours in the new year!
(and that goes for the rest of you too!)
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Post by meemoeuk on Dec 31, 2011 14:25:28 GMT
SC24 is what happened to winter. My old '25 years of global cooling' predictions began failing back in January 2011, when SC24 1st took off substancially. Since then it's bean above average temps. I quickly revised my predictions. It's simple, when the sun is more active, its warmer on Earth, when it's at miminum its cooler on Earth. OK pink is relatively warm UK years, blue is cool, white is mild. 1 summer 2003 UK all time high temp set : 38.5C 2 2005 World wet weather year, 2nd warmest 3 winter 2007-8 cool winter 4 Miserable cool weather all summer 2008 in UK 5 winter 2008-9 : 17 year record cold, since pinatubo winter of 1991-2 6 winter 2009-10 : 30 year record cold 7 winter 2010-11 : all time record cold winter 8 Sun revives. Winter 2010-11 stops abruptly. Record warm spring 9 Significant solar activity in Sept: Record warm October. By this prediction cool winters aren't expected to be noticable till 2016. Its still possible that the next solar minimum cool years will be cooler than the 2007-2010 years, in accordance with the gleissburg minimum hypothesis. The high correlation between solar activity and UK weather has being spectacular this last year!
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 31, 2011 18:15:53 GMT
Winter has arrived, just as I suspected it would. It has come in like a lamb so far tho. Couple of inches of snow on the ground, that will take away our warmth.....oh well. Forcast isn't too bad...not suppose to get below 0F till the middle of the week, and then warm again. We are entering what is our average coldest week of the year, so everything is uphill from this point on. What a blessing to not have had the really cold temps normally associated with a La Nina in this area. The NAO is over powering it....for now.
Happy New Year to all. May it be full of joy and splendid learning for all.
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Post by magellan on Dec 31, 2011 18:18:58 GMT
It doesn't need much explanation for this period of weather [in the NH]. Edit: What drives the AO is another matter.
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