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Post by sigurdur on Feb 11, 2012 22:38:41 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 12, 2012 2:02:50 GMT
sigurdur, thanks for the link. I have been trying to read more about the transition period from the MWP to the LIA. Not that easy because there is no "scientific consensus" as to just when the LIA started. It seems that it started getting colder as early as 1250. By 1300 summer weather was not as predictable and crop failures started. NASA dates the official start at about 1500. However, I wish the info in the link was a little more detailed.
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Post by trbixler on Feb 12, 2012 3:48:28 GMT
sig Thanks for the great link.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 12, 2012 14:19:02 GMT
It seems that famine was definitely on the increase in the 1200's and the interesting thing is that cold winters had very little to do with it. Much more devastating than a cold winter was a stormy, cool summer with late or early frosts. I found this entry referring to the "backward" weather. Not very scientific but there are definitely more entries concerning the Danube, Thames and Seine freezing over after about 1230 AD than before that time.
"While backward weather seasons were contributing factors of the great famine of 1235"
With todays world population "Backward weather", in particularly a cold, damp summer with early and or late frost would have some pretty severe consequences. The Arab Spring last year was a direct result of higher food prices and our climate has been in a warmer cycle. If there are major weather disruptions in the grain belts it could get ugly fast.
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Post by trbixler on Feb 12, 2012 15:01:17 GMT
glen Good observations.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 12, 2012 23:10:14 GMT
glenn: Good observation. Cold winters do not mean cold summers. But cold summers mean scarce food. Ultra hot summers can mean the same thing, but the scarcity of food from heat is, as a rule, less than a total crop failure from cold.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 13, 2012 5:04:02 GMT
sigurdur, cold, wet, stormy summers with early or late frosts are the most dangerous. Droughts can be bad as well, but with irrigation, pumps and wells less formidable. As we saw this past year droughts tend to be more regionalized but temperature patterns tend to be more widespread.
With the global economy just starting to rebound we are more vulnerable than ever to disruptions in food. In the U.S. we spend on average something like 6-9% of our income on food. In other poor and developing nations it can be upwards of 30-40%. When over a third of your income goes for food, inflation and food shortages can have devastating effects on your life.
Currently they are rioting in Greece over austerity measures, North Africa and most of the Arab nations are having issues with civil unrest and the rest of the world is just starting to bounce back. Heaven forbid if another year without a summer like they had in 1816 were to happen.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 13, 2012 16:49:50 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 14, 2012 17:05:40 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Feb 14, 2012 18:34:26 GMT
Don't have time to read it right now but after reading the first few paragraphs, WoW! The more things change the more they stay the same!
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 14, 2012 18:44:11 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 3, 2012 22:42:40 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Mar 4, 2012 2:24:30 GMT
sig, how do you find the time to read all the links you provide? However, I am thankful. Your an oasis of info.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 4, 2012 4:18:40 GMT
sig, how do you find the time to read all the links you provide? However, I am thankful. Your an oasis of info. I don't watch tv. When I get home from work, I clean up...eat...and then read. That is my pure pleasure.....learning. Some of my farm tasks, at this time, do not require much thinking.....and reading/learning is a way to keep my mind active. My pattern tho, is that within a few weeks, my time to read will become very limited......so......I hope someone picks up the slack.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 14, 2018 21:24:43 GMT
1929-30 1946-47, 1962-63, 1978-79, 1995-96, 2012-13.
All cold winters UK, some you'll appreciate were exceptional. 16 years in between....
Pointed out elsewhere, significant??
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