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Post by sigurdur on Apr 19, 2015 12:15:05 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 19, 2015 13:49:56 GMT
Expect heavy losses over the coming week as the Pacific side finally loses the recent cold and allows the 'warm plume' to begin work in earnest. Again I appear to need warn folk about the 'quality' of the ice as well as the amounts. As it is prof Barbers attempts to have the sats spot his 'rotten ice' we still rely solely upon eye balling the ice. I still wonder how much of the 2nd/3rd/4th and 5th year ice is 'rotten ice' as we see each Aug/Sept as the research craft work through the high Arctic. The bow cams show us deeply contoured ice full of 'potholes' and larger cavities which, over winter, refreeze with FY ice to produce the kind of ice that has vessels plough through unhindered even though the sat charts show thick multiyear ice. Graywolf: I don't think you need to warn anyone about anything. The ice is the ice. neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/04/cryosat-sea-ice-thickness-maps.html
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 19, 2015 13:52:52 GMT
AS far as ice extent/area, once again if the ice continues to fall the world won't end. In fact, the world was a much better place for humans 5,000 years before present because it was warmer. That is why the warm period was called the Holocene Climate Optimum. And heck, it wasn't even as warm as the Eemian by a long shot.
This idea by some that climate is never going to change is beyond my thinking ability, as I am a realist. A slight fluctuation in Arctic Ice isn't the end of the world. In fact, potentially heralds a much more receptive world for mankind.
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Post by flearider on Apr 19, 2015 19:56:28 GMT
seeing as theres no warmth getting up there thru the atlantic theres only the wind and sun that can do damage .. but we will see at the end of summer
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Apr 19, 2015 21:46:19 GMT
Expect heavy losses over the coming week as the Pacific side finally loses the recent cold and allows the 'warm plume' to begin work in earnest. Again I appear to need warn folk about the 'quality' of the ice as well as the amounts. As it is prof Barbers attempts to have the sats spot his 'rotten ice' we still rely solely upon eye balling the ice. I still wonder how much of the 2nd/3rd/4th and 5th year ice is 'rotten ice' as we see each Aug/Sept as the research craft work through the high Arctic. The bow cams show us deeply contoured ice full of 'potholes' and larger cavities which, over winter, refreeze with FY ice to produce the kind of ice that has vessels plough through unhindered even though the sat charts show thick multiyear ice. Global sea ice area is 300,000 sq. kilometers ABOVE normal and GW feels the need to warn people about... what again? On the bright side for him, it looks like he might get his El Nino, that should make him happy. I bet he is polishing up his "The End is Near!!!" sign.
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Post by magellan on Apr 19, 2015 22:21:45 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 21, 2015 16:12:10 GMT
www.scientificamerican.com/article/giant-waves-quickly-destroy-arctic-ocean-ice-and-ecosystems/The chance encounter of a Norwegian research vessel with the largest waves ever recorded amid floating packs of Arctic ice shows how such rollers could reroute shipping, damage oil platforms and threaten coastal communities with erosion. In a March report in Geophysical Research Letters scientists at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) describe how large waves can penetrate more deeply into ice cover and break it up faster and more completely than anyone had suspected. Less ice means more open water to generate large waves—creating a feedback loop that could doom the ice cap. (This dangerous cycle is illustrated in “Waves of Destruction” in the May issue of Scientific American.)
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 21, 2015 23:40:32 GMT
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Post by walnut on Apr 22, 2015 1:09:30 GMT
Expect heavy losses over the coming week as the Pacific side finally loses the recent cold and allows the 'warm plume' to begin work in earnest. Again I appear to need warn folk about the 'quality' of the ice as well as the amounts. As it is prof Barbers attempts to have the sats spot his 'rotten ice' we still rely solely upon eye balling the ice. I still wonder how much of the 2nd/3rd/4th and 5th year ice is 'rotten ice' as we see each Aug/Sept as the research craft work through the high Arctic. The bow cams show us deeply contoured ice full of 'potholes' and larger cavities which, over winter, refreeze with FY ice to produce the kind of ice that has vessels plough through unhindered even though the sat charts show thick multiyear ice. Global sea ice area is 300,000 sq. kilometers ABOVE normal and GW feels the need to warn people about... what again? On the bright side for him, it looks like he might get his El Nino, that should make him happy. I bet he is polishing up his "The End is Near!!!" sign. *EXACTLY* The emperor has no clothes.
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 25, 2015 3:51:09 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Apr 25, 2015 10:56:44 GMT
First JAXA century loss of the season today.
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 26, 2015 7:00:37 GMT
Abstracted from my post on Nenana Classic. I have added below the HadCRUT4 Arctic Polar temperature anomalies and the AMO over similar timescales. Expect Polar temperatures to start falling with the falling AMO. The trend in summer time Arctic Ice extent suggests it might be starting to stabilize. Is anyone posting a forecast for 2015? Expect a modest increase in ice extent over the next decade as the AMO starts to fall!
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Post by graywolf on Apr 26, 2015 11:18:59 GMT
I'm of the opinion that we are 3 warm/high export summers away from a basin so changed that we lose the chance of recovery within the basin ( saving major natural catastrophe's impact event VEI5+ eruption). Every year we see excess open water we see 'natural' ocean processes at work over the open area ( the Arctic is the only ocean that did not have 'normal ocean processes'in operation across it). As such the Arctic deep halocline is mixed out and deeper waters given access to the surface. The past two summer low export gave the Atlantic side of the basin some respite allowing aging of ice there. Sadly most all of this ice was lost after the December 'restart' of Fram. With transport looking to be back on the menu this summer we can expect the Atlantic sector min. to be similar to other post 07' years this Sept? The Pacific side, apart from having a lot of thin ice, is facing the Pacific influx of warmed waters flowing in through Bering so we may see some early retreats there and so longer under open water conditions and so a more severe bottom melt 1/3rd of the season?
The 'perfect melt storm' of 07' saw savage surface melt combined with high export rates. At the time we were told the earliest we could expect a return of this synoptic was 2017 so two years of further 'conditioning' of the basin , under 'average' conditions for melt will leave us in poor shape for any return of 'perfect melt storm ' synoptics.
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Post by acidohm on Apr 26, 2015 13:02:36 GMT
Yet, in the 40's they sailed places we can't now....
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Post by sigurdur on Apr 26, 2015 13:48:54 GMT
Captain Larsen's log is an amazing read. Day upon day of no ice.
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