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Post by fredzl4dh on Aug 24, 2015 12:46:52 GMT
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Post by throttleup on Aug 25, 2015 18:16:56 GMT
Nice crepuscular rays at 86 deg N. Temp: -4.1C Melt ponds have a nice coating of... something.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 25, 2015 22:28:50 GMT
The persistently negative AO this summer and at times unusually strong, begs the question as to why. In winter we often explain persistent periods of the AO in one just one phase through stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The polar cap geopotential height anomaly diagnostic (PCH) may be most easy way to identify periods of active stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The current and predicted PCH shows what appears to be stratosphere troposphere coupling with downward propagation of anomalously high geopotential heights over the next ten days from the lower stratosphere to the surface (Figure 6). Such downward propagation could explain the anomalously negative AO predicted over the period if not for the problem that the stratosphere and troposphere are not thought to be coupled during the summer. This further highlights we probably do not fully understand the physics of downward propagation of anomalies from the stratosphere to the troposphere.
Nor what role the current state of the sun may play ... or many other things. The state of the science seems rather 'unsettled' ... but, no doubt, CO2 IS the culprit! You can bet your last government grant that our best and brightest are not fooled. Give them a week or two and they'll figure out something.
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Post by graywolf on Aug 26, 2015 9:33:44 GMT
So that was the recovery that was eh?
So what do you guys think refreeze will pan out like?
With the pack in the shape it is in today we could see a very rapid 'fill in' of the ice remaining leading to rapid growth or do you foresee a nino/blob delayed refreeze with the Pacific side slow to freeze and Bering /Okhotsk low on ice all winter?
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Post by graywolf on Aug 27, 2015 21:55:37 GMT
Surfs up in Barrow! shame they have no sea wall........ 2,000yrs of settlement and now the Sea defenses fail.....odd that.....
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Post by flearider on Aug 27, 2015 23:00:11 GMT
Surfs up in Barrow! shame they have no sea wall........ 2,000yrs of settlement and now the Sea defenses fail.....odd that..... 18mph wind ?gusting to 24 and barrow does have a sea wall it's called walney island what a crazy place to live .. lakes marsh and sea ..
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Post by douglavers on Aug 30, 2015 20:55:19 GMT
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Post by Andrew on Aug 31, 2015 6:58:10 GMT
Another year where the southern route of the NW passage is unusually free of ice. So much so that this year nobody here is talking about boats passing through. Passing through is now the new normal.
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Post by graywolf on Aug 31, 2015 8:31:18 GMT
So says the reporter in one of our broadsheet papers as they passed from Greenland through to Alaska? They did paint a dire picture of how the 19th century explorers found it ..... no heated pools on their vessel's just dodgy tin cans.....
Looks like the deep channel is also passable now too?
The northern route has also been plying its trade for weeks now.
I wonder which year will see someone circumnavigate the remnant ice in the central basin ( not that it's looking in good shape from the Healy aloft cam? Since they moved beyond 80N there hasn't seen much ridge ice and melt ponds connect straight into the ocean as the ice is sitting so low in the water???)
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Post by fredzl4dh on Aug 31, 2015 11:52:49 GMT
Surfs up in Barrow! shame they have no sea wall........ 2,000yrs of settlement and now the Sea defenses fail.....odd that..... 18mph wind ?gusting to 24 and barrow does have a sea wall it's called walney island what a crazy place to live .. lakes marsh and sea .. It used to have a slag bank to stop the wind as well lol i was born in Barrow lived their for 23yrs. Small world.
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Post by throttleup on Aug 31, 2015 14:04:40 GMT
The Arctic melt ponds... have evaporated.Must be the heat.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 31, 2015 17:46:25 GMT
The Arctic melt ponds... have evaporated.Must be the heat. Silly Throttleup. ..that's clearly all water...you could sail a ship there!!
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Post by Andrew on Sept 1, 2015 2:29:48 GMT
i was born in Barrow lived their for 23yrs. Small world. You must have a few stories to tell about that?
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Post by icefisher on Sept 1, 2015 5:05:17 GMT
Another year where the southern route of the NW passage is unusually free of ice. So much so that this year nobody here is talking about boats passing through. Passing through is now the new normal. I would tend to hold off for about 3 more decades before calling it a new normal. Since some amount evidence exists of a multidecadal 6 to 8 decades long exists it figures that since low arctic ice did not became widely apparent until 2007 (28 years after the modern warming commenced according surface records) proof of it not being a regular multi-decadal cycle would not be expected to be widely apparent until sometime in the 2030's or 40's. With Astromet predicting cooling to commence in 2017 a matching date would be 2045 for increased ice becoming widely apparent. I have maintained for years that ice is the trailing indicator of climate change. This is despite the possibility that the dynamics of open polar oceans is to squeeze an usually large amount of supercold brine out of seawater to seed the deep ocean and counteract the dynamics of a hot earth core warming the ocean bottoms. Seems to be the number one attribute of huge systems that people, even intelligent people, seem to ignore. So I am even uncomfortable to a great extent of expectations for 2045. For instance our own Leif likes to dispute solar variation being the cause of the last few hundred years of warming on the basis of there being no measureable longterm variation in solar activity for the past 300 years. One can easily contend that Leif's point only serves to reinforce the notion of great uncertainty surrounding climate change and does nothing towards refuting causes of climate change. All our analysis has focused on changes to the upper ocean that operates on a completely different dynamic than the other 90% of the ocean that has the heat capacity to potentially set in motion solar variability effects that go on almost full automatic for many centuries perhaps many millennia. At least to a degree equal or slightly greater than the total effects of the upper ocean that takes somewhere around 10 years to play out. Since something on the order of 95% of the ocean lies below the thermocline its not hard to posit a system that changes a degree or so in 10 years then takes centuries to produce another degree or more due to slow mixing from below the thermocline resulting in a total of 2 or more degrees variation on roughly a 1,000 year cycle. Thats not a claim but merely notes the possibility of such dynamics hiding within the huge system that is manifested in just about universally in our temperature proxies. A careful look at the history of solar variability strongly suggests that the Little Ice Age was not caused by the Maunder Minimum alone but instead by perhaps 5 or more centuries of decline to the bottom around the time of the Maunder Minimum where upon it ended existing records suggest a strong 1 to 1 1/2 degree warming in a few decades after the Maunder then some hundred and fifty years after it ended more warming commenced. The elephant story of creating an elephant out of 3 variable then making its trunk wiggle with a 4th may in fact be what drives climate. Solar variability followed by variation in the size/area of ice sheets and ocean currents whatever it is that drives variability in them. It seems notable that the ice sheets and glaciers as a whole grew in size for a century and a half after the bottom of the little ice age. So all the refrain might be meet the new normal, same as the old normal. Complete anathema to the big government liberal whose main concern if the taxability of the cause. My take is if you want to raise money off of it do it in a way that benefits people then they will gladly hand you the money. However, in reality seldom is big government really about that even when its proponents think thats what they are doing..
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Post by neilhamp on Sept 1, 2015 9:47:13 GMT
The AMO (in red below) has reached its maximum and will soon be starting to drop. It correlates well with artic temperatures. Expect artic temperatures to fall as the AMO falls
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