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Post by Andrew on Feb 6, 2016 16:24:32 GMT
Well we appear to be bottom of everything? Better hope for a bit of a spurt before we see max called as then we have the Nino impacted summer to face? My 6 year old will love it. Peak bottom of everything.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 6, 2016 17:43:39 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 6, 2016 17:56:00 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Feb 6, 2016 18:07:28 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 6, 2016 18:29:20 GMT
It is like the El Nino Doug. Graywolf predicted one for 3 years, problem was it was suppose to happen during each of the three years. The Arctic will be ice free next year........ya know? And when next year roles around it will be next year.
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Post by graywolf on Feb 7, 2016 12:20:13 GMT
And I still hold concerns that we face the earliest possible sub 1 million melt out potential the next time we encounter the 'perfect melt storm' synoptics.
If they have it right about its cyclical nature, and it follows the time spacing of the two 'perfect melt storms' before the 07' event, then 2017 is the earliest we might encounter it again.
So , should 2017 bring with it the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic then I will voice my concerns that it will push melt into a sub 1 million min. by late Sept that year?
Back to the upcoming melt season though. If we see 'extreme' melt conditions over sections of the basin ( due to lagged Nino impacts) early in the season then we might see the pack undergoing conditioning making another record low in 2017 more likely? It is not what I expected to occur but this poor extent/area must hint at low numbers come Sept this year ( Nino impacts)?
Of more concern to me is the Greenland ice Dome now shedding melt waters direct into the Atlantic instead of storing them in the snow for slower release. Should we see high melt forcings over Greenland then I am expecting that nasty cold blob , south of Greenland, to expand/intensify and thoroughly ruin my summer again with cloud and rain over the country.
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Post by acidohm on Feb 7, 2016 13:22:40 GMT
And I still hold concerns that we face the earliest possible sub 1 million melt out potential the next time we encounter the 'perfect melt storm' synoptics. If they have it right about its cyclical nature, and it follows the time spacing of the two 'perfect melt storms' before the 07' event, then 2017 is the earliest we might encounter it again. So , should 2017 bring with it the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic then I will voice my concerns that it will push melt into a sub 1 million min. by late Sept that year? Back to the upcoming melt season though. If we see 'extreme' melt conditions over sections of the basin ( due to lagged Nino impacts) early in the season then we might see the pack undergoing conditioning making another record low in 2017 more likely? It is not what I expected to occur but this poor extent/area must hint at low numbers come Sept this year ( Nino impacts)? Of more concern to me is the Greenland ice Dome now shedding melt waters direct into the Atlantic instead of storing them in the snow for slower release. Should we see high melt forcings over Greenland then I am expecting that nasty cold blob , south of Greenland, to expand/intensify and thoroughly ruin my summer again with cloud and rain over the country. that cold blob is still being fuelled by low temperature currents....therefore is not due to greenland melt, it is something else.... the blob actually decreased in intensity as we progressed through the last summer, it peaked late spring and then fell off, it is currently more dominant then anytime during september/october. The conditions that may support greenland melt affecting the N Atlantic would be that NAD is currently penetrating further north then it has for a while, this may be a reason why 4 week anomaly departures of the gulf stream show cooling, ie, the bottle neck has opened and heat transport north is less impeded... However, the timings of warming and cooling of these currents/areas doesn't appear to be following any season, so cannot therefore be tied to anything seasonal. Also, summers in the UK have been pretty rubbish since 2007, maybe '13 '14 producing the better summers after this time. The cold blob is new and so may not help our summer, but is certainly not the main forcer. On top of this, our very mild winter existed at the same time as the cold blob so, dont worry about it per se....We have 6 airmasses that determine what our weather is in this country which is why it is such a nightmare for forecasters, id be more concerned about whether or not what causes the cold blob is short term or multi-decadal and what they may do to the other non-atlantic driven airmasses the uk is effected by. Greenland melt, i'm sure, is not it tho...... nsidc.org/greenland-today/ as can be seen in this 2015 analysis, greenland melt ranked 11th out of last 39 years, if melting was the cause of the blob, this year was hardly the year to do it.... TBH Graywolf, its one thing to use alot of abbreviations and refer to complicated dynamics of ice etc, but if it doesn't stand to logic, it just sounds a bit hysterical???
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 7, 2016 14:30:24 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Feb 9, 2016 9:44:11 GMT
Still bumping along bottom on IJIS? Oh! and C.T. hit the lowest for the day ever recorded......
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Post by graywolf on Feb 12, 2016 18:38:18 GMT
Now 2 days of losses on IJIS? Could this be max?
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 12, 2016 18:49:43 GMT
If not max, very close to it.
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Post by graywolf on Feb 14, 2016 16:58:23 GMT
I've also noticed that Fram had leapt into action over the past 3 weeks? With a good potion of the ice 'doing better than last year' now either in the Trans Atlantic drift or over Fram I , for one, would not vote for any continuation in the trend?
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Post by acidohm on Feb 14, 2016 18:23:38 GMT
I'm still going on the basis that every prediction by a warmist has been wrong so far.....so therefore arctic is is juuust fine!
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 15, 2016 2:01:41 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 15, 2016 18:38:02 GMT
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