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Post by acidohm on Jun 30, 2019 6:57:26 GMT
Has all the ice gone yet? It will be soon. Has it gone now? 🤣🤣
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 30, 2019 8:57:19 GMT
The martinis will all be warm and a new wave of whining will break out.
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Post by Ratty on Jun 30, 2019 13:42:32 GMT
The martinis will all be warm and a new wave of whining will break out. These Martinis? Revolution?
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 30, 2019 14:30:53 GMT
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jun 30, 2019 17:10:11 GMT
The martinis will all be warm and a new wave of whining will break out. I can think of nothing, absolutely nothing, more disgusting and distasteful then a warm martini. I'd rather poke hot needles in my eyes.
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 30, 2019 21:21:28 GMT
The martinis will all be warm and a new wave of whining will break out. I can think of nothing, absolutely nothing, more disgusting and distasteful then a warm martini. I'd rather poke hot needles in my eyes. As well you should Sir. Some things are just beyond the pale. 😀
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Post by missouriboy on Jun 30, 2019 21:27:42 GMT
The martinis will all be warm and a new wave of whining will break out. These Martinis? Revolution? Whining never won a revolution. I'm not sure about martinis. Mr Phy?
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Post by graywolf on Jul 1, 2019 10:40:44 GMT
Monthly piomas due out this week.
With the shocking drops in the mid month values it is possible we see the ice volume in a record low state?
With forecasts maintaining the assault on the ice ( esp. the resumption in Fram export and the cross basin draw for ice travel into Fram?) we are approaching the point where our melt momentum is so strong that a 3rd place finish, or higher into record breaking lows, becomes inevitable.
The next 2 weeks will also see FY ice turn into slush as critical thickness is reached and ice flexing under motion crushes the skim into mush.
I have a feeling that we will run into one of those 'cliffs' that just runs on and on as in-situ melt out takes hold of the 2m ice/hudson/landfast ice
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Post by Ratty on Jul 1, 2019 12:32:58 GMT
Monthly piomas due out this week. With the shocking drops in the mid month values it is possible we see the ice volume in a record low state? With forecasts maintaining the assault on the ice ( esp. the resumption in Fram export and the cross basin draw for ice travel into Fram?) we are approaching the point where our melt momentum is so strong that a 3rd place finish, or higher into record breaking lows, becomes inevitable. The next 2 weeks will also see FY ice turn into slush as critical thickness is reached and ice flexing under motion crushes the skim into mush. I have a feeling that we will run into one of those 'cliffs' that just runs on and on as in-situ melt out takes hold of the 2m ice/hudson/landfast ice Do you think it will be a bad thing, GW?
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jul 1, 2019 14:08:25 GMT
Monthly piomas due out this week. With the shocking drops in the mid month values it is possible we see the ice volume in a record low state? With forecasts maintaining the assault on the ice ( esp. the resumption in Fram export and the cross basin draw for ice travel into Fram?) we are approaching the point where our melt momentum is so strong that a 3rd place finish, or higher into record breaking lows, becomes inevitable. The next 2 weeks will also see FY ice turn into slush as critical thickness is reached and ice flexing under motion crushes the skim into mush. I have a feeling that we will run into one of those 'cliffs' that just runs on and on as in-situ melt out takes hold of the 2m ice/hudson/landfast ice Well, Mr. Wolf, you've been predicting this very same thing for over ten years. Perhaps, sometime, you will be right. Surely, though, you're not going to gloat as human civilization crashes down around us like calving glaciers or alpine avalanches! It would be so unseemly of you.
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Post by neilhamp on Jul 2, 2019 6:29:51 GMT
Graywolf, Arcus forecast for 2019 already out www.arcus.org/sipn"June Outlook value for September 2019 sea-ice extent is 4.40 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.2 and 4.8 million square kilometres. Projected extents are slightly lower compared with 2018 June outlook, but is about the same as in the 2017 June outlook (4.43 million square kilometers)." We await September minimum with interest.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 2, 2019 7:40:01 GMT
Graywolf, Arcus forecast for 2019 already out www.arcus.org/sipn"June Outlook value for September 2019 sea-ice extent is 4.40 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.2 and 4.8 million square kilometres. Projected extents are slightly lower compared with 2018 June outlook, but is about the same as in the 2017 June outlook (4.43 million square kilometers)." We await September minimum with interest. Should that be " We await September with minimum interest?"
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 2, 2019 8:40:21 GMT
Graywolf, Arcus forecast for 2019 already out www.arcus.org/sipn"June Outlook value for September 2019 sea-ice extent is 4.40 million square kilometers with quartiles of 4.2 and 4.8 million square kilometres. Projected extents are slightly lower compared with 2018 June outlook, but is about the same as in the 2017 June outlook (4.43 million square kilometers)." We await September minimum with interest. Should that be " We await September with minimum interest?" That is cold Ratty. 😉
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Post by graywolf on Jul 2, 2019 12:40:57 GMT
I have been concerned about the complete loss of Ocean ice , and the impacts on climate, for 12 years or so. I have warned, for this period, that any reappearance of the 'perfect melt storm synoptic' would spell major trouble for the Arctic Basin. The 'perfect melt storm comes around every 10 to 20 years so this year , 12 years into this cycle, may well become the one.
And , of course, the ice has been altering throughout this 12 year period from the 'collapse and spread' in 2008 and 2009 seasons as the last of the Paleocryistic prepared to become extinct in the basin in 2010.
Since 2012 the impacts on atmospheric circulation, come refreeze, has lead to ever more 'winter heat' entering the basin and so the loss in 'Freezing Degree Days' the data shows.
In turn this lead to the first 'Crackopalypse event' in 2013 and the winter denaturing of the ice (via fragmentation) leading to a pack that readily collapses into ever smaller floes once Arctic temps tip zero in May/June.
This past winter saw multiyear ice ,from pole to Barentsz, removed via Fram leaving the basin lacking in 'older ice' come melt season.
Most years I've been able to call 'perfect melt storm' a dud for that year by late May/Early June..... not this year though!
As a result the 'melt momentum' , already installed in the Basin, ensures a low finnish this year.
What we do not need to see is a stormy basin over Aug as this once favourable synoptic would prove to be very challenging for the ice both in terms of melt and export ( into kill zones )?
So ,yes I have been consistent in my warnings of the return of the 'Perfect Melt Storm' over my time here. Now we are further into such a synoptic than any time since 2007 and the Forecasts show no respite ( have you seen the forecasts for record breaking temps about to break over Alaska? )
1cm cube of ice takes 70 cals of energy to melt it. 1cm cube of water takes 1 cal to raise its temp by 1 degree C
Ice reflects over 90% on incoming solar leaving less than 10% of that arriving to do the 70 cals per cm melting.
When the ice is gone over 90% of incoming energy heats the ocean ( 1C per every 1 cal of energy per cm cube)
Anyone not able to see this as a 'New', and impacting energy source, in the climate system is not thinking straight!
But , let's wait until mid Aug to see if there are any issues over the basin ( don't forget the methane issue across Yamal now the snows have gone?)
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 2, 2019 20:10:06 GMT
And IF that were to happen, how about giving us a forecast of exactly what that would mean climate wise, by season for Western Europe and N America.
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