|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 26, 2012 3:50:54 GMT
Else, there is an alternative explanation, not dependent simply on historical variations etc. but rather some fundamantal change in the system, such as 'the industrial revolution' etc. throttleup, Great question. "What is the effect of the 'industrial revolution' on continental drift, El Nino and the PDO?" Short answer, nothing whatsoever. Rather could human activity affect geophysics in some other way? Some new way not seen before? Why not? |
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 26, 2012 3:57:31 GMT
magellan: What a great find, the paper published in Geophysics. It is with great delight I read the abstract, and I will now get my dirt stained fingers on a full copy. Someone IS looking to see why the GCM's are not worth a hoot!!!!!! Maybe in the somewhat near future we will actually have something useful. I suspect we understand not much more than 10% of how the climate system works or forces outside our atmosphere that affect it, despite all the bloviating from the usual suspects. The first reference was co-authored by Gerald Bond of ' Bond Event' notariety. A summarized essay on these "unstoppable" events is at chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/04/06/bond-event-zero/ Since Chiefio wrote that, 2012 has seen "unprecedented" (to borrow a term from our alarmist friends) ice, snow and cold in the Bering Sea and Alaska as a whole. Mark Serreze said it was fluke in 2010. Was it? I don't know, but Serreze and his sycophants have painted themselves into a corner with all the shrill and it is doubtful they'll back down anytime soon. The AMO appears to be in the beginnings of its descent to the cold phase. Magellan, You suggested, "I suspect we understand not much more than 10% of how the climate system works or forces outside our atmosphere that affect it, despite all the bloviating from the usual suspects." I would offer that Science knows much less than 0.1% of what is to be understood about virtually every topic of interest to scientists. Geophysics is no different from any other subject. |
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 26, 2012 4:05:51 GMT
Magellan,
Following from my previous post, I would further offer that ideologs know many orders of magnitude less than scientists about the workings of the natural world, even though they shout real loud.
|
|
|
|
Post by magellan on Jul 27, 2012 0:26:23 GMT
Magellan, Following from my previous post, I would further offer that ideologs know many orders of magnitude less than scientists about the workings of the natural world, even though they shout real loud. It is alarmist scientists that fuel the fire of ideologues. It's hard to turn on the news without some new disaster reported sensationalized and always the first two words are "scientists say". The recent crap from NASA on Greenland is proof enough. Do you actually think Al Gore comes up with all his nonsense on his own? You must live in a bubble. |
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 28, 2012 2:41:18 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 28, 2012 2:51:22 GMT
Perhaps part of a global conspiracy, I guess, this video shows some effects of the recent melt in Greenland; www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=RauzduvIYogIt ended up destroying the bridge pictured here and eroding adjacent morains that had been in place since the little ice age back in the 17th century. |
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 28, 2012 3:06:06 GMT
To provide some context, the recent melting event in Greenland that made the headlines became news after NASA scientists (conspirators?) noted unusual results from one of their satellites. "Satellites See Unprecedented Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt" www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland-melt.htmlCross checks with two other satellites confirmed the initial observation. This unusual weather event appears to happen about once in 150 years, these days (ie. in the current era; such events were more common back around the holocene thermal maximum.) |
|
|
|
Post by steve on Jul 28, 2012 12:16:53 GMT
Model studies suggest that between 5 and 30% of the summer arctic ice loss over the last 30 years is down to changes in the AMO. iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/3/034011Given the decline is around 3% per year that suggests that a reversal of the AMO situation could reverse about 10 years' worth of ice loss. |
|
|
|
Post by icefisher on Jul 28, 2012 23:01:19 GMT
Model studies suggest that between 5 and 30% of the summer arctic ice loss over the last 30 years is down to changes in the AMO. iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/3/034011Given the decline is around 3% per year that suggests that a reversal of the AMO situation could reverse about 10 years' worth of ice loss. Probably about right. The remainder remains a toss up on the current state of the LIA recovery and/or any anthropogenic effects if any remains necessary to fill the gap. |
|
|
|
Post by icefisher on Jul 28, 2012 23:24:10 GMT
It ended up destroying the bridge pictured here and eroding adjacent morains that had been in place since the little ice age back in the 17th century.
I wonder who found it more disquieting; The creation and erosion of the morains: Tstat in the 21st century; or the Greenland Viking herdsmen in the 15th century.
|
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 30, 2012 1:41:09 GMT
It ended up destroying the bridge pictured here and eroding adjacent morains that had been in place since the little ice age back in the 17th century.I wonder who found it more disquieting; The creation and erosion of the morains: Tstat in the 21st century; or the Greenland Viking herdsmen in the 15th century. icefisher, just fyi, related to historical warming and freezing in Greenland, the Medieval Climatic Anamoly in North Western Europe and the North Atlantic lasted from about the middle of the 10th century to the middle of the 13th century. |
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jul 30, 2012 1:49:25 GMT
It ended up destroying the bridge pictured here and eroding adjacent morains that had been in place since the little ice age back in the 17th century.I wonder who found it more disquieting; The creation and erosion of the morains: Tstat in the 21st century; or the Greenland Viking herdsmen in the 15th century. icefisher, just fyi, related to historical warming and freezing in Greenland, the Medieval Climatic Anamoly in North Western Europe and the North Atlantic lasted from about the middle of the 10th century to the middle of the 13th century. About the same time as the warming in Anarctica and South America as well. Sargasso Sea data indicates that the temps were warmer than present by at least 1.0C. And the reserach from Norway last year has it pegged at 3.0C warmer. China had a 50 year lag according to stalagnite mounds. The resolution of the proxies would indicate that timeing was very similiar. Well within the error bars of the studies I have read. What we have to figure out now is WHY there even was a MWP. NO one has a reliable answer as of yet. Lots of theories tho. Kind of a take your pick thing. |
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 30, 2012 1:56:03 GMT
Model studies suggest that between 5 and 30% of the summer arctic ice loss over the last 30 years is down to changes in the AMO. iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/3/034011Given the decline is around 3% per year that suggests that a reversal of the AMO situation could reverse about 10 years' worth of ice loss. steve, There is a valid question regarding whether climate models are useful for intepreting the recent observed changes in the Arctic Sea Ice. In the particular study that you link; "In this study multi-centennial pre-industrial control simulations with five CMIP3 climate models are used to investigate the role that the Arctic oscillation (AO), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) play in decadal sea ice variability. " Could you elaborate on the elements of this study that overcome the objections to such analyses? That is, if climate models are not useful, why think that this particular climate model is useful? |
|
|
|
Post by thermostat on Jul 30, 2012 2:02:03 GMT
icefisher, just fyi, related to historical warming and freezing in Greenland, the Medieval Climatic Anamoly in North Western Europe and the North Atlantic lasted from about the middle of the 10th century to the middle of the 13th century. About the same time as the warming in Anarctica and South America as well. Sargasso Sea data indicates that the temps were warmer than present by at least 1.0C. And the reserach from Norway last year has it pegged at 3.0C warmer. China had a 50 year lag according to stalagnite mounds. The resolution of the proxies would indicate that timeing was very similiar. Well within the error bars of the studies I have read. What we have to figure out now is WHY there even was a MWP. NO one has a reliable answer as of yet. Lots of theories tho. Kind of a take your pick thing. Sigurdur, Excellent post. MWP or MCA, this period is of ongoing interest; especially as to what exactly occurred and why. Lot's of data (as well as historical records like the Vikings settling Greenland) demonstrate that North Western Europe and North Atlantic had a warm period at this time. What is lacking is broad geographic data to describe climate on a broad scale at this time (although existing data indicates that it was cold in some places while it was warm in others at this time). Thus, the current scientific designation as 'the medieval climate anamoly'. Also, the geophysical explanation of the observed event in Northwestern Europe is unclear. |
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jul 30, 2012 2:43:41 GMT
Not only Northwestern Europe, but Western USA. And I have not read even stabs at the reason Antarctica showed warmth during this period. WE know from hydro data that South America was as warm or warmer than present during the period. As always, there were cold spots as well as warm spots. I would like to know why? we warmed. It does not fit well with the slow decline which SHOULD have been happening. Even the "end" of the LIA should not be happening. Prof Bond has presented some hints, but there is nothing really concrete in his finding either. www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/pdf/bond_2001.pdf |
|
