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Post by graywolf on Jan 9, 2015 15:35:31 GMT
Jaxa has extent now down to second lowest recorded and any continuation of current ice behaviour will see us drop to the lowest in that series by Saturday??? Seems that not only did we see two back to back summers good for retention but that their winters took away all those gains by the time we reached the melt season? What happens if we don't see a 3rd consecutive summer good for ice retention? What happens if we see a return to 'average' melt season conditions ( melt and export) ? We saw what 2012's average year meant to the pack?
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Post by acidohm on Jan 9, 2015 16:49:52 GMT
Jaxa has extent now down to second lowest recorded and any continuation of current ice behaviour will see us drop to the lowest in that series by Saturday??? Seems that not only did we see two back to back summers good for retention but that their winters took away all those gains by the time we reached the melt season? What happens if we don't see a 3rd consecutive summer good for ice retention? What happens if we see a return to 'average' melt season conditions ( melt and export) ? We saw what 2012's average year meant to the pack? Still think this is to be expected as antartica is showing huge ice mass, historically each pole is the opposite state to the other......so why get alarmed?
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Post by douglavers on Jan 9, 2015 19:45:00 GMT
Graywolf
The point I was trying to make is that as far I can see, it is only the unfrozen Barents Sea area which is holding down Arctic Ice extent. The Arctic as a whole is vverry ccold.
The extremely active Atlantic Depressions which are probably causing this ice free area are caused by - surprise - extreme cold in North America and Greenland clashing with a [comparatively] mild Atlantic. This apparently freshens up the jet stream, in turn stirring up the depressions.
But the Atlantic is mostly anomalously cold as well.
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Post by douglavers on Jan 9, 2015 19:51:16 GMT
Graywolf Comment; [Jaxa has extent now down to second lowest recorded and any continuation of current ice behaviour will see us drop to the lowest in that series by Saturday??? Seems that not only did we see two back to back summers good for retention but that their winters took away all those gains by the time we reached the melt season? What happens if we don't see a 3rd consecutive summer good for ice retention? What happens if we see a return to 'average' melt season conditions ( melt and export) ? We saw what 2012's average year meant to the pack?] Please compare to: psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png
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Post by icefisher on Jan 9, 2015 19:57:43 GMT
Jaxa has extent now down to second lowest recorded and any continuation of current ice behaviour will see us drop to the lowest in that series by Saturday??? Seems that not only did we see two back to back summers good for retention but that their winters took away all those gains by the time we reached the melt season? What happens if we don't see a 3rd consecutive summer good for ice retention? What happens if we see a return to 'average' melt season conditions ( melt and export) ? We saw what 2012's average year meant to the pack? Well it doesn't mean much since it is only a regional effect. Even if it were a global effect, which it isn't, it still would not be significant because ice loss has only been going on for less than 2 decades. Even as a regional phenomena, which it is, it is not significant because of its longevity. I don't think there is any scientific disagreement with this point of view. Fact is ice loss has slowed to a crawl and most likely in another decade it will be viewed as a pause of around 18 years or so. Of course new discoveries like the effect of low solar cycles have a strong possibility of shifting the pause to an unexpected early ice recovery but the jury on that remains out. As it is the northwest passage has only been intermittently open now for 7 years. We know that the passage was intermittently open between 1936 and 1944, perhaps longer due to the lack of travel in the area. But a passage was completed by a 2 vessel relay in 1936 and by passages by Henri Larsen in 1942 and 1944. So this low ice event is not unusual. When most of us seem in agreement that a 1,000,000 sq km of ice is trivial (equivalent of zero), it makes no sense to focus on only a possibility that winter ice might set a new daily record low of a few thousand km. What would be significant would be a winter ice level well below a million sq km below say the mean of the past 5 years. I am not nearly as concerned about summer lows as its obvious summer lows have a much higher variability due to the loss of older ice over a period of a couple of decades making the summer ice pack much more fragile sp by simple physics summer ice variation runs well behind winter ice variation, a pause in summer ice melt may not yet be underway. What we do know is the predictions of extensive and accelerating ice loss were just flat wrong espoused by scientists whose standards of proof are obviously not up to acceptable public standards. \
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Post by graywolf on Jan 10, 2015 10:44:19 GMT
Have just had sight of a paper that was looking into the summer synoptics that took away all the paleocryistic ice from 07 to 2012 and it does look like those summers, and the predominance of the Beaufort/Greenland high were down to plain bad fortune and not anything more sinister? As such I'm a little happier and feel that it is, in light of these findings, more likely that 2015 could bring us another 'stable' year across the melt season?
I'm not so sure I can say the same of winter though? The extreme Polar Jet Patterns we have been seeing over the past decade and more do show all the trade marks of what Jen Francis proposes (and now has even more data/observations to support her?).
Whilst we continue to find ourselves in a position where a good proportion of the summer pack does melt out then that extra heat in the Arctic system will continue to impact over Autumn/Early winter?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 10, 2015 15:14:48 GMT
Graywolf:
It is obvious that you like Dr. Francis paper. And that is ok. But please look at it through a skeptics eyes, as you should.
Her paper shows correlation, but is very light on the actual causation. She is reporting a phenomenon, which is fine. But she has shortened the duration of her observation in order to try and ascertain something that has happened long before CO2 became a supposed issue.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 10, 2015 15:15:18 GMT
Have just had sight of a paper that was looking into the summer synoptics that took away all the paleocryistic ice from 07 to 2012 and it does look like those summers, and the predominance of the Beaufort/Greenland high were down to plain bad fortune and not anything more sinister? As such I'm a little happier and feel that it is, in light of these findings, more likely that 2015 could bring us another 'stable' year across the melt season? I'm not so sure I can say the same of winter though? The extreme Polar Jet Patterns we have been seeing over the past decade and more do show all the trade marks of what Jen Francis proposes (and now has even more data/observations to support her?). Whilst we continue to find ourselves in a position where a good proportion of the summer pack does melt out then that extra heat in the Arctic system will continue to impact over Autumn/Early winter? Share the paper?
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Post by graywolf on Jan 11, 2015 12:30:42 GMT
www.the-cryosphere.net/9/53/2015/tc-9-53-2015.pdfSorry Siggy, there you go! PIOMAS does show a reduction in anomaly but also a mover from 7th to 8th lowest? with Bering posting record warm temps over the past 6 months I'm wondering if we ought to expect a move back to 'normal' ice cover over the rest of winter? If we don't then we should expect an impact on ice volume with an important section of 'late winter volume gain' not available. Nares is also still on the move and , in fact, the Scallop feed in Lincoln Sea is growing in size??? if we recall Nares gave a 10% input to the losses ,via export, to the 07' 'perfect storm' melt season? Seeing as we are not seeing baffin expand exponentially I'd guess this 'good ice' ( 2.5m+) is melting. Lastly Barantsz is emptying, due to drift, of ice so we are seeing a similar configuration to those of the years of low ice mins?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 11, 2015 15:49:00 GMT
www.the-cryosphere.net/9/53/2015/tc-9-53-2015.pdfSorry Siggy, there you go! PIOMAS does show a reduction in anomaly but also a mover from 7th to 8th lowest? with Bering posting record warm temps over the past 6 months I'm wondering if we ought to expect a move back to 'normal' ice cover over the rest of winter? If we don't then we should expect an impact on ice volume with an important section of 'late winter volume gain' not available. Nares is also still on the move and , in fact, the Scallop feed in Lincoln Sea is growing in size??? if we recall Nares gave a 10% input to the losses ,via export, to the 07' 'perfect storm' melt season? Seeing as we are not seeing baffin expand exponentially I'd guess this 'good ice' ( 2.5m+) is melting. Lastly Barantsz is emptying, due to drift, of ice so we are seeing a similar configuration to those of the years of low ice mins? With average weather in the Arctic in 2015, I fully expect the low ice extent to be lower than 2014 lows. There is still a bit of winter left, in regards to making ice, and patterns can change. I do not expect the Bering to become an area of huge growth.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 11, 2015 16:12:38 GMT
www.the-cryosphere.net/9/53/2015/tc-9-53-2015.pdfSorry Siggy, there you go! PIOMAS does show a reduction in anomaly but also a mover from 7th to 8th lowest? with Bering posting record warm temps over the past 6 months I'm wondering if we ought to expect a move back to 'normal' ice cover over the rest of winter? If we don't then we should expect an impact on ice volume with an important section of 'late winter volume gain' not available. Nares is also still on the move and , in fact, the Scallop feed in Lincoln Sea is growing in size??? if we recall Nares gave a 10% input to the losses ,via export, to the 07' 'perfect storm' melt season? Seeing as we are not seeing baffin expand exponentially I'd guess this 'good ice' ( 2.5m+) is melting. Lastly Barantsz is emptying, due to drift, of ice so we are seeing a similar configuration to those of the years of low ice mins? As a side note to this, 2007-2012 correlates exactly to successive damp/mild summers here in the UK. ...2008-2012/13 were all winters with unusually widespread snow. We got a summer 2013, no snow (well some but gone in 24hrs, and localised) yet.... Looks like a useful tool for north Europe.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 13, 2015 3:03:20 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 14, 2015 13:38:35 GMT
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Post by graywolf on Jan 14, 2015 14:41:35 GMT
I'd just been reading this so ta for the vid presentation! The scientist likens the surface of Greenland to 'Swiss Cheese' and the subsurface to a sponge. That sodden layer, in the snow layers directly above the ice does trouble me as surely any 'steep' profiles raise the prospect of sudden failure at that layer and slip down into lower, warmer levels? We know that there is a saddle/lobe function of ice sheet melt so this may well be the function that takes mass from sub zero temps elevations down into warmer valleys?
Been watching the Sat output from 'Wokingham Weather' ( primarily to see the extent of the scalloping in Lincoln caused by Nares still being in full flow) and see that Beaufort is not in a pretty state? has this move toward smaller floes ( instead of contiguous ice cover) lead to us seeing this disruption of the ice over winter ( like a grenade or chocolate bar breaking apart)?
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Post by Ratty on Jan 14, 2015 23:20:55 GMT
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