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Post by thermostat on Aug 5, 2012 1:47:57 GMT
The ongoing disintegration of the fast ice in the North East Waters section off the coast of Greenland has also been getting attention. rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r02c03.2012217.terra.1km(click on the 'previous' button at the upper right to view previous days' images.) Historically, stable fast ice in this region has been a recurring feature, while breakup of this ice is an indicator of warming. |
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 5, 2012 2:13:11 GMT
thanks for the updates thermostat.
This years melt is proceeding about exactly as I had expected.
Might get another year or two like this and then the tide will turn.
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Post by thermostat on Aug 5, 2012 4:23:17 GMT
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Post by numerouno on Aug 6, 2012 18:41:56 GMT
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Post by thermostat on Aug 7, 2012 2:47:52 GMT
numerouno, It is reasonable to figure that changes in albedo such as those resulting from black carbon are a factor. Besides, 'Chinese Soot' black carbon from Siberian and North American wild fires, for example, would also appear to be of significance. Given the complex nature of the Arctic Sea Ice system, how would you weigh changes in albedo due to black carbon with respect to the other factors that are contributing to arctic amplification at the present time? "The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis" www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/jenkay/papers/Stroeve_2011.pdfprovides an example of a relevant context for addressing this question. |
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Post by magellan on Aug 7, 2012 2:56:47 GMT
numerouno, It is reasonable to figure that changes in albedo such as those resulting from black carbon are a factor. Besides, 'Chinese Soot' black carbon from Siberian and North American wild fires, for example, would also appear to be of significance. Given the complex nature of the Arctic Sea Ice system, how would you weigh changes in albedo due to black carbon with respect to the other factors that are contributing to arctic amplification at the present time? "The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis" www.cgd.ucar.edu/staff/jenkay/papers/Stroeve_2011.pdfprovides an example of a relevant context for addressing this question. More model based crap. If PIOMAS is correct, then by now there should be zero ice in the Arctic, certainly within a couple years at most. |
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Post by numerouno on Aug 7, 2012 3:19:02 GMT
(Missing]
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Post by thermostat on Aug 7, 2012 3:23:54 GMT
numerouno, Is black carbon, 'model based crap'? It appears rather to be physical crap in the atmosphere. Maybe you can comment. |
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Post by numerouno on Aug 7, 2012 23:42:55 GMT
"Maybe you can comment. "
My university library did not have the Nature Geophysics on-line so I've not seen the study on aerosols on ground Ms Stroeve mentions. (Has anyone got one on-line?) I would tend to think the conventional loss of albedo (more sea and land exposed each year) is far more significant. This phenomenon has actually been known for long as the Arctic amplification.
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Post by magellan on Aug 8, 2012 0:37:46 GMT
numerouno, Is black carbon, 'model based crap'? It appears rather to be physical crap in the atmosphere. Maybe you can comment. The article you referenced is almost entirely based on climate model simulations, which have been shown to have no predictive skill over and over. That doesn't stop pseudo-scientists from claiming they are evidence. Models are not evidence for anything. Maybe Numo can comment on that. |
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Post by numerouno on Aug 9, 2012 1:55:28 GMT
Did someone just pull the drain plug?  (EDIT: there is now a wiggly end to the black worm so it's unlikely to be a measurement artifact.) |
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Post by astroposer777 on Aug 9, 2012 2:40:55 GMT
Did someone just pull the drain plug? My interpretation would be that some kind of disruption in the satellite transmission of data has occurred, or that there is some terrestrial glitch in the processing of the date. If this is not the case, then there is something very unprecedented occurring. |
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Post by numerouno on Aug 9, 2012 3:43:43 GMT
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Post by throttleup on Aug 9, 2012 19:52:50 GMT
 Eh... there's still a little left. |
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Post by numerouno on Aug 9, 2012 21:20:38 GMT
Throttleup, I think we can see some practical examples in your picture of what arctic amplification means. When meltwater pools such as those in the picture increase in size on ice, they will lessen the albedo and induce further melting.
As we can see, they are much darker than snow, and will stay so despite any minor snowfall.
Seems to me the outside temperature in the pic is +0C or above.
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