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Post by sigurdur on Feb 19, 2015 3:09:27 GMT
And Ratty Australia seems to be getting a lot of rain when the Greens predicted you would be relegated to country of Brown's. [ Snip ] Yep, the wide brown land is looking pretty green - in parts - ATM. Looks like my local area is about to cop a "significant weather event" from TC Marcia. The MSM are beside their collective selves praying for (preying on?) a disaster. There's very little else on the airwaves down here but flooding, sandbags, tidal surge, etc. Notorious flood areas have been cordoned off to parking. Meanwhile, we've had 10mm today and it's a little windy ATM. PS: After the Brisbane floods of 1974, we've always bought on high ground so I'm high and dry provided the roof doesn't blow off. What kind of nut ARE you Ratty? I mean....it flooded and then didn't for a few years. High ground? Think of the value of a flood plain! You get to redo the house frequently. "Hey Ratty.....I want a new kitchen and I am praying for lots and lots of rain....... " The wife whispers in your ear.....
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Post by Ratty on Feb 19, 2015 4:14:45 GMT
Wife stopped whispering in my ear about twenty years ago Sig ..... sigh.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 19, 2015 4:50:04 GMT
Wife stopped whispering in my ear about twenty years ago Sig ..... sigh. Oh well, at least you aren't bothered with new kitchens then....
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Post by nonentropic on Feb 19, 2015 4:57:32 GMT
I don't think that's what he meant!
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Post by douglavers on Feb 20, 2015 5:48:20 GMT
Every time I look at a picture of Arctic Ice, the obvious "missing" bit is the area North and Northwest of Norway. The North Atlantic Drift [aka Gulf Stream] seems to be fading out mid Atlantic. There is a huge cold anomaly in the North Atlantic. weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gifThe Barents Sea must be cooling substantially with the heat input from the Gulf Stream more or less gone. There is probably no better way for the planet to lose heat really fast than to have open sea in total darkness in the Arctic. Ice is probably not forming in that area very much because the jet streams have been powerful this year i.e. extremely stormy weather. Hence, relatively low Arctic Ice.BUT the system must be cooling rapidly. When the Barents Sea decides it is cold enough, the ice will fill it really fast. Next year? This is a bit like the Great Lakes. It looks to me as an outsider that they were freezing up relatively slowly until about two weeks ago. New ice records now loom. In turn, that will massively cool the Central US States. The moderating influence of the Great Lakes will be much diminished. Attachments:
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 20, 2015 7:06:18 GMT
When there is open water that far North in mid-winter the result is one huge sucking sound of heat leaving the planet.
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Post by graywolf on Feb 20, 2015 11:05:20 GMT
When there is open water that far North in mid-winter the result is one huge sucking sound of heat leaving the planet. I think you might want to revisit your notes on Arctic atmosphere at this point Siggy? It would be great if cold clear skies meant unlimited radiation into space but the Arctic atmosphere is not allowing that to occur. The well documented 'inversions' over the winter Arctic make quite sure that the leached out heat flows south at lower atmospheric heights. Past episodes of 'Ice Free' Arctic have had crocs on ellesmere island and palms not tolerant to sub 50f temps so this 'inversion' mechanism is a 'normal' response once you allow moisture into the upper levels of the Arctic atmosphere. I'd imagine a season of deep, thick, inversion fogs would keep the heat locked in around the basin? The triple R appears to be locked in for the ride but the atmosphere this side of the pond is working differently to past years with the Azores high forcing storm tracks further north ( over iceland) leading to bouts of strong northerlies over fram ( and high exports). Should this persist into summer not only does it bode well for the UK summer ( frequent HP dominance) but hints at a different regime over the Arctic as we move into melt season proper?
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 20, 2015 16:47:12 GMT
When there is open water that far North in mid-winter the result is one huge sucking sound of heat leaving the planet. I think you might want to revisit your notes on Arctic atmosphere at this point Siggy? It would be great if cold clear skies meant unlimited radiation into space but the Arctic atmosphere is not allowing that to occur. The well documented 'inversions' over the winter Arctic make quite sure that the leached out heat flows south at lower atmospheric heights. Past episodes of 'Ice Free' Arctic have had crocs on ellesmere island and palms not tolerant to sub 50f temps so this 'inversion' mechanism is a 'normal' response once you allow moisture into the upper levels of the Arctic atmosphere. I'd imagine a season of deep, thick, inversion fogs would keep the heat locked in around the basin? The triple R appears to be locked in for the ride but the atmosphere this side of the pond is working differently to past years with the Azores high forcing storm tracks further north ( over iceland) leading to bouts of strong northerlies over fram ( and high exports). Should this persist into summer not only does it bode well for the UK summer ( frequent HP dominance) but hints at a different regime over the Arctic as we move into melt season proper? Graywolf: The open water does produce fog. But even fog is not as effective a heat transfer barrier as ice is. The heat is released in the area, migrates as all heat does, and once open air is reached quickly escapes. I agree with you in regards to placement of the Azores high. It works in conjunction with the Greenland High and the Icelandic Low. All three are semi permanent features of our current climate regime. The resulting exports via the Fram as ice bridges fail, appears to be pushing out multi year ice. This occurrence is to be expected isn't it? For Capt Larsen to sail the northern NW passage in 1944, there had to be a lot of open areas, which there was according to his log. No one has repeated that feat since. Could it happen in the foreseeable future? Yes, as long as current trends continue.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 21, 2015 2:29:30 GMT
I think you might want to revisit your notes on Arctic atmosphere at this point Siggy? It would be great if cold clear skies meant unlimited radiation into space but the Arctic atmosphere is not allowing that to occur. The well documented 'inversions' over the winter Arctic make quite sure that the leached out heat flows south at lower atmospheric heights. Graywolf it is you who may need to rethink this. The cause of a temperature inversion is a massive loss of surface heat to space allowing the surface to cool much faster than the atmosphere. Further fogs form from evaporation representing another massive ocean surface heat loss. Fogs require huge amounts of heat from the surface to form. It may restrict direct radiation losses but its evaporation heat loss that creates and supports a fog. One gram of evaporated water removes the same amount of heat as would be needed to heat a gram of water by 540k. All this heat has already left the surface. The fact that some of the air is moved south by prevailing winds really changes nothing especially considering this is usually in the form of a very cold wind, actually helping remove more heat from the the more southerly surfaces. All the arctic convection loops whether water or air is a process of moving warm air/water into the arctic at that top of the loop and returning colder air/water south at the bottom of the loop. All this is enabled by radiation losses to space. The fog may transport more heat south but its eventually going to condense and the heat will be lost to space. Fogs cool much faster than clear air and the surface cools faster than the fogs.
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Post by douglavers on Feb 21, 2015 5:38:15 GMT
The point I was trying to make, probably rather badly, in yesterday's blog, is that having a huge volume of unfrozen water in the Barents Sea is actually quite bad from a human perspective.
Especially when it is combined with a Gulf Stream in "switched off' mode.
People rejoicing [?] in low Arctic Ice better be really careful what they wish for.
I think the system has the potential to switch quite horribly in the next few years.
People in the Central and Eastern USA are quite possibly now getting a taste of what will become an annual event.
Also in Europe!
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Post by graywolf on Feb 21, 2015 14:17:18 GMT
I think We , in Europe, saw what losses to Barentsz could do to our weather from 07' to 2012 but the later changes to Baffin, Beaufort and East Siberian over wrote this forcing and allowed for the Triple R pattern to evolve. This appears to remove the impacts , down stream, that the rockies used to put on polar jet movements and places?
As for the future? Well the 'cold pole' has already migrated onto N Greenland due to the warming/ice losses on the Atlantic side of the basin ( year round!) allowing Siberia/eurasia to see anomalously high winter temps and be the route of choice for warm air ingress into the basin.
What we do not need to see is GAC12 become more common place. In just 3 days the GAC12 mixed out the fresh pool in the centre of the Beaufort Gyre. Such mixing washes out the deep Arctic isocline and makes the mixing of the warm, lower Atlantic waters to the surface a possibility.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 21, 2015 14:30:40 GMT
I think We , in Europe, saw what losses to Barentsz could do to our weather from 07' to 2012 but the later changes to Baffin, Beaufort and East Siberian over wrote this forcing and allowed for the Triple R pattern to evolve. This appears to remove the impacts , down stream, that the rockies used to put on polar jet movements and places? As for the future? Well the 'cold pole' has already migrated onto N Greenland due to the warming/ice losses on the Atlantic side of the basin ( year round!) allowing Siberia/eurasia to see anomalously high winter temps and be the route of choice for warm air ingress into the basin. What we do not need to see is GAC12 become more common place. In just 3 days the GAC12 mixed out the fresh pool in the centre of the Beaufort Gyre. Such mixing washes out the deep Arctic isocline and makes the mixing of the warm, lower Atlantic waters to the surface a possibility. "makes the mixing of the warm, lower Atlantic waters to the surface a possibility." Which as Doug says will result in a huge loss of heat to space. Instead of the ice cubes being kept in the freezer they are being spread out cooling the Atlantic while what warm water there is comes to the surface to radiate its heat away.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 21, 2015 17:32:27 GMT
graywolf Avatar
3 hours ago graywolf said: What is the DMI 80N reconstruction of temps going to tell you of what is occurring in the Arctic circle Naut? When you look at depth of permafrost melt over the Arctic circle you will see just how swift change has been?
The one thing the DMI80N temp is good to illustrate is the way sea ice pegs back temps over the melt season. So long as there is ice, melting or otherwise, then the temp is pegged to around zero. remove that ice and temps soar. Keep an eye on land temps where the sea ice has retreated over summer and see the dramatic leaps in temp they have experienced since the ice went. Most years now post record high temps from stations around the Greenland coast.
Graywolf: A point to consider. Iceland had the "big freeze" in the 1970's. This of course, was one of the metrics used by a few scientists to predict the onset of another Ice Age.
Greenland and Iceland also had very warm temperatures in the 1930-1940 time period. Being of Icelandic decent, and calling the Icelandic Metro Office, I don't believe the GISTTemp adjustments in Greenland and Iceland at all, in regards to them cooling off the 1930's and 1940's. The Icelandic Met office called it for what it is..."Pure Bullshit" as you Americans would say.
I don't know about the Danes, but I DO know about Icelanders. They are NOT dummies, and IF something was wrong, would be the 1st to admit that something is wrong and correct it.
We literally have NO way of knowing what the ice export etc of the Fram was during the last Arctic Minimum. And make no mistake, for Capt Larson to sail the northern route of the NW passage required there to be substantially less ice than even today. OR, if not LESS ice, a total redistribution of said ice. And he did it without the aid of modern navigation NOR sailing aids.
So, with the limited knowledge available, am I concerned in the least with the present state of Arctic Ice? Nope, I am not. Can we observe correlations to past KNOWN events in the Arctic to the present day? Yep. Are they similar? Yep..
Now to the larger picture/question. Why was the Eemian so much warmer than this Holocene? We all know that even tho Dr. Wegener was called a denier, out in left field past the wall, blindfolded to reality, etc that he was correct and all the flat earth types were wrong. So, we know that continents drift etc. But we also know that during the last 120,000 years there has not been a significant change in earth's continental placement. We think we understand orbital patterns. We know we know jack squat about the sun, even today. Lots of ideas, but very little firmware type proof.
So, today what do we actually know? WE know that the Holocene is a cool interglacial. Do we know why? Nope. Being it is now long in the tooth, we are trying to compare it to MIS-11. Do we know why MIS-11 was also a cool interglacial? Nope. Do we know why it broke the Milankovitch cycle theory? Lasting 44,000 years? Nope.
There are so many influences to climate that we DON'T know about, that to claim CO2 is a major influence, even tho CO2 rises long after temps fall, and doesn't rise till well after temps have risen, that CO2, a minor greenhouse glass, is NOT the "thermostat" of temps.
I think the questions are so plain, the answers continue to hide, that Climate Scientists honestly can't see the forest for the trees. I don't see malfeance is most scientists. I see a lot of literature struggling to be published going against the grain, just as happened to Dr. Wegener.
You might even be a climate scientist. I don't know. I know that you are not brain dead, but you have one heck of a set of blinders on. That indicates you have a stake in the game, as no one who appears to be as bright as you are, can really be this dense unless you are trying to project your "beliefs" rather than the "Science".
Make sense?
Everyone here knows I am just an old farmer, coveralls and all. So I don't know much, but by being a farmer and having snake oil salesmen frequent my door, I have learned when BS is BS. Make sense?
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Post by graywolf on Feb 23, 2015 15:55:21 GMT
I thought we were on pretty solid ground understanding that the orbital variations were very small as was the precessional 'wobble'. With insolation and CO2 both needed for any decent into the next ice age the interglacial survived beyond individual forcings but secumbed once CO2 and insolation both reduced in tandem?
As it is we have seen insolation on the wane from 11ky but our CO2 hadn't also declined so though we saw far north cooling we could not have descended back into an ice age. As it is now we have blasted us far from any glaciation with our near doubling of our GHG burden?
Anyhow , back to the ice. Still looking poor on extent and area. I just hope piomas has better news? We appear to have shifted from the low export months so this summer will not continue the rebound (are we to only ever see a period of 2 years for rebounds from record low years?) as ice is both melted and exported. It matters not how cold and cloudy the basin is if you've sailed out of the basin and into the Atlantic.
By the way we just had a major calve at Jakobshavn ( Feb 14th/15th). I cannot recall another winter calve from this marine terminating Glacier? The record calve that 'chasing ice' captured in 2010 was 10km2 , this one was around 7km2? With Austfonna displaying frightening ablation rates ( 14 storey building in height shed in only 2 years!!) we do not need to see Greenlands marine terminating glaciers doing the same!!!
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 23, 2015 20:06:27 GMT
Graywolf: I hope we all know we are still in an inter-glacial period?
We also know from Alley 2000 that 95% of Greenland Ice sheet formed during the last interruption of interglacials. The bottom ice is predominantly 110,000 years old or so?
We also know what slow methodical warming does to an ice cube. Now imagine the ice cube is a lot larger, but the actual effect is still going to be the same. The ice remains intact, becomes less solid, and at the end of the melt, melts rapidly. Same thing happens in glaciers.
Continues to amaze me that smart folks think the interglacial period just stops at some point, temps will just be constant, and all life will be good. Does no one learn from the paleo folks anymore???
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