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Post by magellan on Jun 10, 2015 23:45:12 GMT
Boy! it's beginning to look a lot different to 13'/14' out there a.t.m. I have to wonder if the 'perfect melt storm synoptic' has shortened its return time from 10yrs ( for the 2 before 07') to 8 years??? Beaufort certainly seems to be hinting at that? As we enter June are we about to see a 'cliff' as area/extent respond to the crazy temps around the peripheries. Seeing as only the central arctic basin took positive volume anoms into melt season ( thinner ice for all other regions) it is probably the worst possible start with all ice areas around Central Basin shedding ice allowing warm water to dominate the central pack over the bottom melt end of the season. It would have been a lot better for the peripheries to have stayed cold over May/June and so protect the thicker central pack. Each year you pick a different area to bloviate about after your previous scary tales are forgotten. For ten years the trend for Arctic ice has been zero, and every single AGW prediction about the Arctic has failed. There will always be areas that melt faster and other areas that don't, and still others that gain. It's a wash. A few years back I predicted PIOMAS would miraculously reverse it's nonsensical data because observations and logic did not match their models. Remember this mockery of PIOMAS? Recall the dozens of "expert" predictions of an ice free Arctic by 2013. Sorry to break the news, but
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Post by graywolf on Jun 12, 2015 8:25:41 GMT
www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/06/irreversible-loss-of-ice-should-spur-leaders-into-action/"Over the past 10 years or so, we've roughly seen a 50% loss of Arctic sea ice area. So, the ice in the Arctic is currently retreating very, very rapidly." In March, Arctic sea ice reached its lowest maximum extent in the satellite record. Last week, the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre confirmed Arctic sea ice extent for May was the third lowest on record.Arctic-sea-ice-extent_ Antarctic sea ice has been at record high levels in 2015 but this should be viewed in perspective with what's happening at the other end of the planet, Notz said: "There is a slight increase, but it's nothing compared to the very, very rapid loss that we've seen in the Arctic." Scientists' current understanding is that temperature changes as a result of greenhouse gases are causing winds to blow stronger offshore in the Southern Ocean that surrounds Antarctica, driving the sea ice outwards. Notz said: "Both in the Arctic and the Antarctic, the changes we are seeing in the sea ice are very clearly driven predominantly by human activities." Model simulations suggest sea ice could be gone from the Arctic in summer by mid-century. But if we stop emitting greenhouse gases, the chances of losing sea ice diminish quickly, he said: "Only a very strong and rapid reduction in carbon dioxide might allow for the survival of Arctic summer sea ice beyond this century."
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Post by acidohm on Jun 12, 2015 10:11:46 GMT
As has been pointed out recently elsewhere...IPCC states humans are responsible for maybe as much as half the warming experienced since the 50's....so no more then .4°c in 60 years, (actually is it less then that??) I have not heard a sensible explanation about increased antartic ice from any Warmists, I mean come on, increased off shore winds? Total straw clutching, Antartica has recorded it's LOWEST ever temps in the last few years!!
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Post by boxman on Jun 12, 2015 22:28:54 GMT
As has been pointed out recently elsewhere...IPCC states humans are responsible for maybe as much as half the warming experienced since the 50's....so no more then .4°c in 60 years, (actually is it less then that??) I have not heard a sensible explanation about increased antartic ice from any Warmists, I mean come on, increased off shore winds? Total straw clutching, Antartica has recorded it's LOWEST ever temps in the last few years!! I thought it was the so called quickly melting of ice on land mass, pushing the sea ice out ;P These people just cannot make up their mind...
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Post by acidohm on Jun 12, 2015 22:44:30 GMT
Well exactly Boxman.....I *infiltrated* a Facebook group called 'tired of climate change deniers' (seriously...its still there...) mainly I wished to immerse myself in the thoughts from the other side to allow for error in my own judgement. As I pretended to be a helpless agw supporter asking advice on how to counter the 'denier' argument on increased Antarctic ice, it was proposed to me it was like a scoop of ice cream in a freezer slowly spreading out......mmmh...... On the same site, I asked if a well publicised gathering of walrus on an alaskan beach had been observed before, perhaps not due to lack of ice. One guy told me he was a doctor and if, as I clearly was, of lower intelligence then him, I was in no position to comment on this.......2 weeks later a bloke who studied walruses observed in national news.....They do that every year, it's called 'mating' I unfollowed group, pointless exercise. ...
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Post by acidohm on Jun 16, 2015 18:59:22 GMT
iggle wiggle wiggle........
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jun 16, 2015 22:02:43 GMT
Oh my. First a tropical storm in the GOM in June. Now this. My god. What have we done to the planet?
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Post by Ratty on Jun 16, 2015 23:48:11 GMT
iggle wiggle wiggle........ Oh my. First a tropical storm in the GOM in June. Now this. My god. What have we done to the planet? We've been doing it for quite a while. Queensland's June (Winter) cyclone of 1967: The website link below has a list of occurrences compiled by Jeff Callaghan, a retired Senior Severe Weather Forecaster from Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane. Jeff's list goes back as far as 1846: HardenUp Website - East Coast Lows 1846-2009Brisbane River running a banker circa 13th June 1967:
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Post by icefisher on Jun 17, 2015 1:13:55 GMT
www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/06/irreversible-loss-of-ice-should-spur-leaders-into-action/"Over the past 10 years or so, we've roughly seen a 50% loss of Arctic sea ice area. So, the ice in the Arctic is currently retreating very, very rapidly." In March, Arctic sea ice reached its lowest maximum extent in the satellite record. Last week, the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre confirmed Arctic sea ice extent for May was the third lowest on record.Arctic-sea-ice-extent_ Antarctic sea ice has been at record high levels in 2015 but this should be viewed in perspective with what's happening at the other end of the planet, Notz said: "There is a slight increase, but it's nothing compared to the very, very rapid loss that we've seen in the Arctic." One cannot make that comparison. The continent of Antarctica is about the same size as the entire arctic ocean. All one can say is global ice is increasing. nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_timeseries.pngthe antarctic has been consistently 2 standard deviations above normal all year. Forget the wind nonsense! Total stupidity. nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.pngArctic this year is about 2 standard deviations below normal. Although last years winter extent was high. The arctic extent has been uneven with less change in the winter and the summer suggesting its not temperature but currents/winds. (e.g. ice melts consistently at the same temprature, but winds change and change seasonally)
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Post by icefisher on Jun 17, 2015 1:17:00 GMT
Scientists' current understanding is that temperature changes as a result of greenhouse gases are causing winds to blow stronger offshore in the Southern Ocean that surrounds Antarctica, driving the sea ice outwards. Notz said: "Both in the Arctic and the Antarctic, the changes we are seeing in the sea ice are very clearly driven predominantly by human activities." That would be like in "Notz an ounce of brains"
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Post by walnut on Jun 17, 2015 1:30:06 GMT
oh yeah, I am sure that the huge volume of ice and extra cold temperatures in the antarctic in the last several years were caused by human activities. "Scientists" apparently believe that they can propose/ claim anything and it won't be questioned.
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Post by tobyglyn on Jun 17, 2015 21:58:15 GMT
oh yeah, I am sure that the huge volume of ice and extra cold temperatures in the antarctic in the last several years were caused by human activities. "Scientists" apparently believe that they can propose/ claim anything and it won't be questioned. Based on climate reporting in the mainstream media they are correct in their belief
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 18, 2015 4:14:20 GMT
Note the word belief.
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Post by graywolf on Jun 27, 2015 11:20:39 GMT
Bad week across the basin as the Blob eats away Beaufort Thickness. With the Alaskan current giving the basin a direct line back into the blob it's not looking good for the pacific side right now? The C.A. is also feeling the heat so it looks clear we will have a few routes through the NW Passage this year?
In the past the year after Nino is bad for volume in the basin ( all that warm water makes its way up the US coast and into the basin via Bering) but last years near Nino and the persistence of the blob make this year into a 'low volume' candidate?
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 27, 2015 12:39:45 GMT
Graywolf: That blob was there in the 1940's as well. Joe Bastardi talks about this. During the 1940's, other items of interest.
1. The St Roch sailed the Northern North West Passage.
2. The German warships sailed the North Eastern Passage to get to the Pacific in WW2.
The timing of the temperature increase is similar in both events. Early 20th Century warming, then a decline. Late 20th Century warming, another decline?
Are we witnessing a repeating event? Striking similarity don't you think?
Does history repeat itself?
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