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Post by acidohm on Jan 28, 2016 17:26:04 GMT
Looks like ijis will drop to lowest over the next few days? Seeing as the Nino impacts have a four month environmental delay this does not bode well for April onward? With the earliest the 'perfect melt storm ' synoptic being next year a poor year this time around will leave ice both in poor condition but also possibly facing the 'high export/High in-situ melt' the next year? Exciting times, eh, GW!!
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Post by graywolf on Jan 29, 2016 10:48:58 GMT
Looks like ijis will drop to lowest over the next few days? Seeing as the Nino impacts have a four month environmental delay this does not bode well for April onward? With the earliest the 'perfect melt storm ' synoptic being next year a poor year this time around will leave ice both in poor condition but also possibly facing the 'high export/High in-situ melt' the next year? Exciting times, eh, GW!! Well bottom of the pile we are ( on IJIS ) and , looking at the plot of other years, we'll be bottom for a while? Though we didn't know it this time last year we'd entered the last 4 weeks of re-freeze so we might already be entering the last month of this seasons freeze up? Obviously any ice added from here on in will be thin and external meaning it will be lost very easily come melt season? With Nino warmth about to dominate the start of melt season I worry about the new findings on the damage 2012 did to the Greenland ice sheet? The enhanced runoff the 'ice layer' is providing will mean a lot of rapid run-off into the N. Atlantic? As the world melts we ought expect the 'cold blob' off S.Greenland to grow in size/temp anom? This does not bode well for the bulk of N.W. Europe with cyclogenisis enhanced over the region leading to depression after depression heading into Europe......
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Post by acidohm on Jan 29, 2016 12:49:24 GMT
Well bottom of the pile we are ( on IJIS ) and , looking at the plot of other years, we'll be bottom for a while? Though we didn't know it this time last year we'd entered the last 4 weeks of re-freeze so we might already be entering the last month of this seasons freeze up? Obviously any ice added from here on in will be thin and external meaning it will be lost very easily come melt season? With Nino warmth about to dominate the start of melt season I worry about the new findings on the damage 2012 did to the Greenland ice sheet? The enhanced runoff the 'ice layer' is providing will mean a lot of rapid run-off into the N. Atlantic? As the world melts we ought expect the 'cold blob' off S.Greenland to grow in size/temp anom? This does not bode well for the bulk of N.W. Europe with cyclogenisis enhanced over the region leading to depression after depression heading into Europe...... How do we account for the current cold lab current? Makes me wonder if something else is responsible for the cold Atlantic. ...
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Post by graywolf on Jan 29, 2016 13:27:47 GMT
Well bottom of the pile we are ( on IJIS ) and , looking at the plot of other years, we'll be bottom for a while? Though we didn't know it this time last year we'd entered the last 4 weeks of re-freeze so we might already be entering the last month of this seasons freeze up? Obviously any ice added from here on in will be thin and external meaning it will be lost very easily come melt season? With Nino warmth about to dominate the start of melt season I worry about the new findings on the damage 2012 did to the Greenland ice sheet? The enhanced runoff the 'ice layer' is providing will mean a lot of rapid run-off into the N. Atlantic? As the world melts we ought expect the 'cold blob' off S.Greenland to grow in size/temp anom? This does not bode well for the bulk of N.W. Europe with cyclogenisis enhanced over the region leading to depression after depression heading into Europe...... How do we account for the current cold lab current? Makes me wonder if something else is responsible for the cold Atlantic. ... Well I see it as the same thing with the West Greenland Current turned around by Nares and flowing south from there onward? If melt waters off Greenland are no longer soaking into the snow layer due to the 2012 'ice cap' then that extra outflow surrounds all of Greenland? Any current will become bolstered with this cold outflow and produce both the extra cold of the 'blob' and the currents ( West Greenland/Baffin and Labrador?). My concern is rapid melt this , and next, year leading to over loading of the snow above the ice 'cap' in the snow layers? Anyone who studies avalanche will know what this 'overloading' will inevitably lead too? This then escalates the formation of cold Atlantic waters as the avalanche debris will be at lower levels ( obviously!) and so be exposed to higher melt pressures than they did at altitude ( saddle and lobe melting like we saw on the American ice sheet at the end of the last ice age?).
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 29, 2016 14:20:38 GMT
Yep, bound to happen. The world will rejoice when it does.
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Post by nonentropic on Jan 29, 2016 18:09:12 GMT
So my question, is this subject to positive or negative feedback.
and when the world was warm some few years ago what mechanism saved us from the very apparent fate that Wolf is projecting.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 29, 2016 18:19:47 GMT
So my question, is this subject to positive or negative feedback. and when the world was warm some few years ago what mechanism saved us from the very apparent fate that Wolf is projecting. The fate that Wolf is projecting is actually not born out when one examines paleo data. Continents were very similar in placement 5000 years before present when the Holocene Warm Period was going full bore and Greenland Ice sheet was much smaller than today. In fact, the Arctic seemed to be ice free during the summer months. Reality doesn't sell newspapers, nor achieve funding for "more research". Fear does. This whole thing is a liberal mindset. Liberal folks are afraid of change, and they can't accept that the climate will change all on its own, as has been demonstrated in the past. There has to be a "personal" blame for the change.
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Post by douglavers on Jan 29, 2016 21:23:15 GMT
ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.phpArctic seems to be ca 30 degC warmer than "normal" at the moment. I suppose this might be a result of all that extremely cold air which wafted into Asia and elsewhere ..... However, as has been said before, there is probably no better place on earth for heat to be lost to space really quickly than the poles in winter. 30 DegC above normal would make the process quite impressive. When this El Nino fades over the next few months, the planetary temperature drop which ALWAYS occurs, might be really irritating.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 29, 2016 21:26:02 GMT
Yep, try heating a barn with the door open. Won't happen. Close that door and you may have a chance.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 30, 2016 4:58:48 GMT
Yep, bound to happen. The world will rejoice when it does. Some land owners in Florida won't. And I'll bet there will be a lot more Bangladeshies heading west. Put some more shwarma on the barbie.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 30, 2016 6:23:06 GMT
Yep, bound to happen. The world will rejoice when it does. Some land owners in Florida won't. And I'll bet there will be a lot more Bangladeshies heading west. Put some more shwarma on the barbie. They always had a dream of a mountain view.
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Post by graywolf on Feb 1, 2016 9:55:00 GMT
So now we are looking at a strong high pressure building over the basin and , with the help of constant lows on our side of the Atlantic, looks to perk up exports out of Fram? Must we say Tar-rah! to some of our best ice just before we enter into melt season?
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Post by nonentropic on Feb 1, 2016 16:28:19 GMT
possibly but also to a massive amount of energy to the universe around.
the next disaster keeps getting away.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 1, 2016 16:48:48 GMT
possibly but also to a massive amount of energy to the universe around. the next disaster keeps getting away. Those disasters keep on getting away. Its a travesty.
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Post by graywolf on Feb 6, 2016 16:21:05 GMT
Well we appear to be bottom of everything? Better hope for a bit of a spurt before we see max called as then we have the Nino impacted summer to face?
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