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Post by Pooh on Feb 27, 2012 5:13:06 GMT
magellan, there are "proven reserves" and "recoverable reserves" which some also use the term "economically recoverable reserves'. Thanks. I think you answered one of my questions before I asked. My second question: Is it true, then, that "peak oil" excludes potential reserves in places in which we have been prevented from investigating / prospecting. Such as those in ANWR, Offshore Eastern and Western, and to a certain extent, the Gulf? In other words, places suspected of having oil reserves, but which have been ruled off-limits by political processes (including unelected bureaucracies). That would mean that "peak oil" shortages are defined by Diktat.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 27, 2012 14:07:52 GMT
Pooh, I will answer your question with a question. Just what are the potential reserves in the places you mentioned and what percentage of "proven reserves" are typically realized?
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Feb 27, 2012 19:58:57 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 27, 2012 20:42:18 GMT
Thank you phydeaux. I will read this tonight as time allows.
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Post by Pooh on Feb 28, 2012 5:36:51 GMT
Pooh, I will answer your question with a question. Just what are the potential reserves in the places you mentioned and what percentage of "proven reserves" are typically realized? glennkoks, your question is indeed the question. We won't know until we can look, and we can't look without the king's permission. ;D Since you have experience in the industry, perhaps you can give us a swag from your knowledge of the geology of the excluded areas?
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 28, 2012 6:05:56 GMT
Pooh, there have been wells drilled on both the east coast and west coast. Washington and Oregon did not stir up much interest but there are proven reserves off California that show promise if you could get both the State and Feds to open up.
From what I have read the North East Atlantic coast may hold promise but I don't think the mid atlantic south has shown much either.
However, the next time I B.S. with one of the Geologists I work with I will ask and get back with you.
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 28, 2012 6:22:36 GMT
Pooh, I did find this. Attachments:
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 28, 2012 6:26:45 GMT
From the maps it looks like ANWAR, Southern California, and the eastern gulf of mexico are federal waters that are closed that have decent known reserves. The rest of the East Coast and West Coast not so much. However there is tons of gas off the east coast but with prices for gas in the cellar I would not expect much interest.
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Post by Pooh on Feb 29, 2012 6:53:53 GMT
From the maps it looks like ANWAR, Southern California, and the eastern gulf of mexico are federal waters that are closed that have decent known reserves. The rest of the East Coast and West Coast not so much. However there is tons of gas off the east coast but with prices for gas in the cellar I would not expect much interest. Thanks! Very interesting and most kind of you! Can I assume that (since they are federal and closed), they do not figure in "Peak Oil"?
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Post by glennkoks on Feb 29, 2012 15:32:59 GMT
Pooh, there is a universal truth when dealing with politicians. They tend to crumble like paper under intense public pressure. I think at some point ANWAR, The East Coast and more of the California coast will be open to drilling at some point. When gas reaches European price levels Americans will be looking for heads! So yes they do figure in Peak Oil.
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Post by Pooh on Mar 20, 2012 5:03:42 GMT
Glenn, we were looking for total reserves. You found off-shore; I found one for on-shore: Seymour, Don. “Running on Empty: New Chart Shows White House Plan for Higher Gas Prices & Fewer Jobs.†Government. Speaker of the House John Boehner, February 24, 2012. www.speaker.gov/Blog/?postid=281631. There was another chart of on-shore reserves which could be added to your chart of off-shore opportunities. However, I can't put my hand on it just now.
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Post by glennkoks on Mar 20, 2012 15:11:23 GMT
Pooh, it has been my experience that the USGS usually underestimates reserves. The Eagle Ford shale in South Texas is a classic example. Their estimates keep going up.
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Post by glennkoks on Mar 20, 2012 15:18:26 GMT
With that being said I think Peak Oil is still a valid theory. I just drilled a well near High Island, Texas. The field was once very prolific and abandoned wells still dot the landscape. At it's high point the field produced 10 million barrels a year. Now production is measured in the thousands of barrels per year. The same can be said for Spindletop and the East Texas Oil Field.
Low hanging fruit gets picked first. Then it gets harder.
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