Post by AstroMet on Jan 29, 2013 7:08:28 GMT
Theodore
I hope the offer was to all as I am interested in what you forecast for these coordinates, basically north central Iowa. Thanks ---Mike
42 degrees 44' 21.867" N
94 degrees 42' 27.877" W
Hi Pilgrim,
Here's my advice from what I've worked on. It can be applied generally for those in the Corn Belt, based on my Astromet calculations for the climate into 2013:
At those coordinates, you will see another bone dry year with little rain, short water supplies, heat waves and blistering weather this summer.
Your best bet are cover crops, but it's going to be tight since this late winter into spring will see extreme ranges of temperature.
Rain is coming from mid-to-late February into March, but it will be a driving rain and it will also be windy. These driving rains could cause flash flooding with the dry, cracked soil about a month from now continuing into March.
Some believe that the drought threat could be lessened if more rain arrives, but it won't be eliminated in my view.
Unfortunately, the drought will extend far past this coming year's growing season when it reaches mid- to late July.
And, there's a fire threat this year. There's a lot of bone dry acreage out there. You look and there are many miles of crisp, brown cornfields that will continue to bake in 100-degree heat.
There are ditch weeds and trees dry as tinder and stressed to the max from a lack of rain and the spreading drought. Some trees are already losing their leaves and other trees are dead. Be very mindful of wildfires this year because winds will be strong to spread them.
According to my forecast for this year's corn crop: it will be held tightly by two things - bad climate conditions, featuring no rain, with heat waves, severe drought and of course, soaring corn prices.
Word is that some corn farmers will convert to soybeans this year; while other farmers are going to take their chances with moisture levels and plant even more corn hoping that high prices will make up for any lost crops.
Moreover, a lot of farmers ruined their soil nutrients by repeatedly planting corn year after year because of the ethanol demand.
A lot of them should have known that repeated corn planting depletes the soil of nutrients and reduces yields.
They played dice with the climate and the drought I forecasted came right on time last year - which has greatly exacerbated the problem.
And it's going to get worse.
Then, the knuckle-brained plan for higher prices to offset yield losses didn't work last year.
With the worst drought since the mid-1950s, corn yields were very disappointing - farmers harvested 10.7 billion bushels of corn in 2012.
That was the lowest harvest in six years and it's going to get even worse I'm afraid to say.
However, my 2013 forecast remains:
It's going to be another bone dry and blistering hot year ahead with another round of heat waves and little - if any - rain. And it's going to be windy too.
There's a serious problem as the drought will continue in 2013. I will have something on the longer-range, but it doesn't look good at all, frankly, it's down right depressing.
My word is that it is time for farmers to batten down the hatches and get their soil healthy by rotation of crops, but the pressures on farmers to plant even more corn will greatly increase.
In a short- it totally sucks.
Astromet's View Of the 2013 Growing Season & Beyond -
One of the big reasons I say that corn prices in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 will continue to rise is that I know that droughts are forced astronomically. They run in cycles and seldom break over just one year.
If you look at climate patterns through the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s, then you will see how true this is.
Astromet's advice is to prepare for a hard couple of years and a long drawn out drought.
I am betting that some smarter farmers are going to plant soybeans this year (and next) and not corn, because soybeans are less dependent on moisture and have the added benefit of adding nitrogen to the soil.
I would advise farmers in Iowa and Illinois to do just that - switch to soybeans.
Farmers are going to see another year of stress with all their energy needs for planting, fertilizing and worries over the harvest. They really need help, but Washington DC has been sitting on their hands.
I publish freely and openly so those bozos in DC can think ahead of time to help farmers in times like these and the ones to come, but the politicians are far too busy lining their own pockets and playing fun and games with their egos and Mother Nature doesn't go for that.
I pay attention to Mother Nature. She has the last word on everything. Her word is the only one that matters.
Along with rising gas prices, and after last year's drought, 2013 is going to be the most expensive corn crop farmers will have ever planted. But American corn yields are going to fall as much as 320 million bushels in 2013.
It's going to be a high drama and a rough gamble for the farmer to continue to play in the corn casino in this Corn Drought and expect to get investment back in time to re-invest for the next crop.
Moreover, there's a real need for serious crop-insurance to help farmers, but Washington DC must think that the nation's food comes from supermarkets and not farmer's fields.
All the Corn Belt states are experiencing a wide spectrum of abnormally dry conditions that rate from severe to extreme drought conditions.
The most severely affected drought regions are found in central and eastern Illinois, central and northeastern Missouri and western Iowa.
Moreover, about 25% of Minnesota, 42% of Iowa, 63% of South Dakota and 96% of Nebraska are in ranges of extreme to exceptional drought - the two worst categories.
And all four states are among the top six corn-producing states. We're in trouble.
Other regions have felt the drought impact early on and this resulted in reduced corn and other crop yields from 2012's levels.
WATER RATIONING COMING
I calculate that in 2013, more than 30 U.S. states will have water shortages. That means one thing - rationing.
The situation in Texas is really bad because Texas suffered through one of its worst droughts in its history in 2011 and then Texas was hit again with the severe drought of 2012.
As the 2012 drought I forecasted extends itself into 2013, you can bet that many places will experience water shortages and forced rationing on everyone.
One of the problems is that population growth and decades of heavy pumping of water supplies by public and private users have simply tapped resources beyond limits.
Then you have had years of heavy irrigation and water use, for instance, for livestock in the Plains states that has depleted their groundwater supplies - and agriculture accounts for 70% of all fresh water use.
The last several years of low precipitation and hot weather has accelerated evaporation and depletion of lakes and reservoirs.
Water levels in Kansas' underground aquifers are dropping so much that the governor called for the state's water experts to meet back in October 2012 to consider ways to best conserve what water Kansas has.
Oklahoma is so worried about their water supply and groundwater depletion that legislators passed a law in 2012 that gives grant money and incentives to make more efficient use of water on farms, businesses and homes as they encourage the increased processing of undrinkable "brackish" water.
In Colorado, studies predicted a chain of Colorado River reservoirs which serve about 30 million people has a 50 percent chance of running dry in the next 45 years.
That will affect seven states - Arizona, California, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming and Colorado.
The problem are that droughts that last longer along with decreasing snow pack and increasing demand for water from populations.
DROUGHT 2013 & CORN YIELDS
The fact of the matter is that U.S. corn yields have been below trend for three years. By now farmers surely must recognize that there is a great potential of a fourth year of poor crops yields in a row.
This means normal crops and sharply lower prices are far from a reality. Prices just won't move sharply down until crop production is more assured - and according to my climate/weather calculations that's not going to happen.
The drought I forecasted continues to impact parts of the Missouri, Mississippi and Ohio rivers, as low water levels prevent towboats and barges from traveling down river.
This adds to the drought problem because it delays shipments of commodities, petroleum products, coal and chemicals as well.
But the pressure is on for farmers to plant more record crops -
"We can expect more corn and soybeans acres planted in 2013, says David Reinbott, a University of Missouri agriculture business specialist.
"Corn acres this year will likely be about 99 million acres, which is 2 million more than last year," Reinbott said. "With a more normal weather pattern, most trend-line yield calculations put yield at 162 bushels an acre."
Planted acres of soybeans are also expected to increase about 2 million acres to 79 million in 2013.
Reinbott said that figuring 42 bushels an acre would create a supply of 258 million bushels.
Winter wheat acres also increased from 2012, but not as much as expected.
"There were 41.82 million acres of winter wheat planted," Reinbott said. "The trade estimate was closer to 42.6 million acres. That’s about 700,000 less."
He says that weather will continue to play a big role in the grain fields this year
"It is still pretty dry in the western Corn Belt," Reinbott said. "Some numbers have come out indicating that many parts of the southern Plains and western Corn Belt need significant rains just to get them back to normal."
That's saying something. However, I expect things to get worse.
According to my calculations, I would say that Corn farmers will see total production drop to somewhere in the neighborhood of 10.35 billion bushels.
That about 12-13 percent down from 2012. I've got it at 15-18% after the 2013 harvest.
Yields across most of the Corn Belt can expect to average about 139.2 bushels an acre. The records say that that is down about 21.2 bushels from the record-setting yields of 2004.
In 2013, we all are going to see higher prices for corn and products made from corn. That includes meat because most corn is fed to cattle and hogs. That also includes a portion of the price of gas, because some gas is blended with ethanol, which is made from corn.
As some of you may know, most of the corn that's grown is feed corn that is fed to livestock or is used used to make ethanol. Those are not fit for people to eat.
Farmers always decide at the beginning of each crop year just how much of their acreage they'll plant in each type of corn.
Many of them closely follow commodities trading reports to figure out what types of crops will be the most profitable to plant.
And, as we know - all of the corn has been affected by the drought I forecasted to come last year.
But people can only eat a certain type of corn, the stuff in cereals and the corn syrup that's a part of sodas. That type of corn has to be dried, then ground into flour or meal and then pressed into syrup before being processed. This is where the pinch is going to be felt.
Meat prices were affordable last autumn into early winter because the 2012 livestock was sent to slaughter early.
Ranchers and farmers knew that the price of feed corn would increase because of the drought.
So they were forced to thin out their herds down to breeding stock just ahead of the higher feed prices.
That's the reason why the U.S. government rushed in and bought all that pork and beef and froze it into storage about six months ago at record low prices.
But meat prices are going to go up in 2013 just as scarcity strikes.
The geopolitics of all this is playing out just as I thought it would after I made my 2012 drought forecast last year.
For instance, Dennis Gartman, editor of The Gartman Letter, told CNBC's Fast Money in early January that agricultural commodity prices will hinge largely on rainfall in 2013.
Blackstone Advisory Partners Vice Chairman Byron Wien also believes corn prices will be linked to climate.
Wien predicted that climate change [that's from a lack of rain, not 'man-made global warming] would contribute to widespread crop failures and send prices significantly higher to $8 per bushel.
However, factors other than the weather also play a role in commodity prices. Current high corn prices are enticing farmers in South America and the Ukraine to plant more acres. This will affect prices worldwide too.
According to Informa Economics, U.S. farmers are expected to be pressured once again to plant a record corn crop. Farmers are estimated to plant about 99 million acres of corn in 2013.
That's the highest acreage since the 1930s - and that's a 12% increase from the year 2010.
For instance, North Dakota farmers alone are expected to plant about one million acres more than 2012 estimates.
However, a lack of adequate seed may lower planting estimates. I warned about this in an earlier post here.
China may play a larger role in corn demand this year. China is a huge consumer of U.S. grains as we all know, but if their needs change based on the weather then it could easily impact the price of corn.
And, did you know that for the first time in history, starting this year, that China will produce more corn than rough rice?
I have been following the futures markets and already in January 2013 they are taking into account a possibility of a short 2013 corn crop.
So they are building in a greater-than-normal weather risk premium. While the amount of the premium is unknown, I bet you that 50 cents to $1 per bushel ain't out of the question.
As long as the drought remains you can be certain that any new crop corn prices will stay higher by risk premium.
The U.S. corn stockpile is expected to drop to a 17-year low by summer 2013. That's about right according to my calculations.
And the tight corn supply is going to push prices up even higher.
There's all this speculative pricing – you know, the panic-induced trading that's spurred on by the news of the drought.
It is going to push up the price per bushel of corn for 2012 corn.
And this will happen for 2013 corn and 2014 corn which hasn’t been planted, yet.
Price will fluctuate up and down until the actual month/year of delivery and all their calls and puts will vary, but in the final analysis it is the consumer of corn that's going to feel the tight pinch in stores over the next several year. We all know that manufacturers simply pass the added cost to the consumer.
Despite some forecasts that the drought will continue along with the obvious risks of repeated corn plantings, what is going to happen is that rising prices is going tempt some farmers to increase corn acreage.
Big companies like Monsanto and other insiders are forecasting 2013 corn plantings to be at record highs but those guys can't replace the major nutrients loss in soil - rather, by planting like this to market they are making things worse.
So which planting tactic is best for corn farmers?
A conservative bet or upping the ante?
Well, again, replanting and increasing corn acreage will damage the soil and present future problems since Monsanto can't forecast the weather.
ASTROMET ADVICE FOR FARMERS
I say that rotating crops is better and will secure better yields in the future. However, the money is tempting because farmers don't want to miss out on soaring corn prices in 2013.
Those are the options because the drought isn't going anywhere just yet.
Now, if the drought were gone, then new-crop prices would surely fall.
But again, the drought threat isn't going anywhere according to my calculations.
And it will worsen and persist to at least to 2016.
That's a fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh year of poorer-than-expect crop yields and those repeated plantings will have worsened soil nutrients on top of it due to the pressures of rising prices. That is how corporations ruined farming. More food shocks are coming too.
My saying, as always is, 'respect Mother Nature." And she don't take cash or credit cards either. Hers is the last word on the entire matter and is the only one that counts.
There are hard years ahead for those who listen and heed my long-range climate forecasts.
So while a return to normal production could mean $5.50-per-bushel corn, Hurt said continued drought in key production states could still translate to new-crop corn prices of $8.50 per bushel.
The uncertainty makes risk management difficult for corn growers.
"Farmers will have three key tools to deal with the financial risk from this wide range of possible outcomes: federal crop insurance, the new government farm program and their own marketing decisions," Hurt said.
My advice is get your Cover Crops going as fast as you can because its another bad growing year ahead. Hot temperatures (really hot this year) but with bone dry conditions.
Tillage of dry soil can damage soil structure, so when moisture is available it will not be held in the soil and this results in erosion - that's a major problem this year.
The problem with tillage is that it reduces the ability of moisture to reach subsoil where it would be ready for crops in time of any moisture stress.
You see, damage to soil in drought occurs also from tillage. That breaks up soil structure and so will reduce infiltration of rainwater that prevents it from getting to subsoil.
If you allow more residue to stay on soil surface then it will help you to retain as much moisture as you can to improve moisture infiltration.
And again, use of cover crops will add to the retention of moisture; will give you more room to breath with livestock feed, and retain your soil nutrients.
But really, when all is said and done, no till practices, including even minimum tillage will decrease the impact of a drought like this one.
Farmers learned a lot of lessons after last year. One was to listen to my long-range astronomic forecasts. Rather, many planted a record crop - against my advice - and then lost it to the drought I forecasted to start in 2012.
These are some of the lessons learned:
• Crop residue retention with no-till systems improves water infiltration rate and conserves soil water content by reducing soil cracking and crusting and preserving soil structure.
• Corn following corn suffered greater yield losses than corn following soybean. Continuous corn typically does not yield as well as corn after soybean, but the yield differential was much greater in 2012.
• Cover crops can accumulate residual NO3-N, thus decreasing losses from the root zone. Much of the N accrued in cover crops will become available to subsequent crops.
• The reduction of corn plant growth and grain fill during drought led to high NO3 accumulations in vegetative plant tissues, particularly in the lower corn stalk. Testing corn silage or baled stalks was important in 2012 to determine if NO3-N levels were safe for livestock.
• Corn N fertilization rates necessary to provide optimum yield typically are lower in years with below-normal rainfall. This effect can persist across multiple years of dry conditions, even with a return to normal rainfall. Therefore, effects of dry conditions should be considered in decisions for N application rates to 2013 corn crops.
• Corn silage harvest results in greater P and K removal than grain harvest alone since most of the above-ground plant is harvested. This increased removal rate from grain-only harvest should be considered in nutrient plans for subsequent crops.
• Dry fall conditions can impact soil test results. Predicting nutrient availability during drought is difficult. Sampling after fall rainfall occurs or sampling in the spring improves soil test reliability.
• The 2012 Drought revealed that genetics may have a limited role in protecting yield without optimum moisture availability in the absence of an integrated crop management system.
• Significant root-worm feeding damage was observed in 2012 on hybrids with Bt rootworm resistance. Decreased root volume following root pruning results in lower water use under drought conditions, more crop stress, and reduced yields.
• The jury is still out on drought-tolerant hybrids. Unfortunately, results of scientifically valid comparisons of similar genetics with and without drought tolerance are not yet available.
• Planting a range of hybrid maturities will help spread risk, but plant only hybrids adapted to your area. Non-adapted hybrids may have neither the yield potential nor disease resistance of adapted hybrids.
So the idea this growing year is to go with residue management.
That's my advice. This can help to maintain as good as a soil structure as you can possibly achieve.
MORE ASTROMET ADVICE FOR 2013
With the fast driving rains that's coming late February into March 2013, you will see that any surface residue will retard erosion in heavy rains, so good residue will allow more water to get in and stay in the soil profile.
Again, I advise switching to soybeans rather than corn.
But, if you are going to plant corn, then I would advise to put in about 12-inches of corn stubble to get better progress since upright residue does trap and store moisture well and can slow up water movement down-slope.
If you can get your cover crops going it will protect your soil from erosion as well as to improve soil structure. It can also increase organic matter, and will reduce nutrient loss.
Again though, the bone dry conditions that are still setting in from the drought are going to seriously challenge your ability to get a cover crop going.
The problem is with spring into mid-summer and then straight to the harvest.
There's more bone dry, hot and windy conditions to come for Iowa and the Midwest this season - with the drought not only continuing but spreading even more.
It's going to be even drier and hotter than it was last year. Water-rationing is coming too. Count on it.
According to my calculations, the northwestern third of Iowa is suffering extreme drought affecting about 58 percent of Iowa. For the entire country, it's about 60%, and that includes the entire land mass in Iowa.
The problem again is lack of rain.
I forecasted a dry winter this season and with a lack of decent snowfall following the start of the drought last year; there were going to be lower lake and river levels.
Stream segment flows are way below normal. It's been going on like that for about a year-and-a-half now.
Without more moisture, the soil will continue to dry out and begin to crack. There should be problems already all over Iowa. The soil problem is very serious and it will affect the foundations of structures and houses too.
Basically, what I am seeing in my climate/weather calculations is a significant loss of moisture content. The soil is drying up. The soil is shrinking.
My analysis came about when I made my 2012 Drought forecast that showed that there was to be cracking and fracturing in the top 6-15 inches of soil.
And with the climate conditions I see ahead, there is a serious potential for even deeper cracking.
What happened is that the soil crusting became a problem as the surfaces hardened, especially in cases where conventional tillage had been applied as well as where there was poor cover from residue or crops.
I saw that the problems would begin to show up in winter 2011 and into early 2012. This was when a lack of surface cover caused deterioration of soil aggregates.
So it allowed cementation to take place. That impacts the relationship between soil moisture and plant roots.
It's a very good bet that state officials are going to curtail water usage this summer, so you had better prepare for that.
My forecast is for bone dry conditions and extreme drought to continue in 2013.
And there are going to be problems with the trees and bushes too by the time summer arrives. And next winter will see very cold temperatures, far below average, that will impact winter wheat.
I can help farmers to make the most these horrid climate conditions according to where their farms are located, but they will have to contact me so I can zero in on their particular regions to help them with my weather forecasts. Astromet can be contacted at astro730@gmail.com
Overall though, expect this year to be another bone dry year with little rain, featuring heatwaves and blazing temperatures that will persist. It's going to be worse than last year in fact.
And the drought will continue to spread. That means water shortages and rationing because the lack of rain is going to last for a couple of years too. That's my forecast.
- Theodore White, astrometeorologist.sci