Post by AstroMet on Mar 13, 2012 23:46:25 GMT
Astromet Seasonal Forecast 2012
Public Forecast - North America
General Climate Seasonal Forecast: Spring, Summer & Autumn 2012
Produced: March 12, 2012
Forecast By Theodore White, astrometeorologist.S
The mild and dry winter 2012 for most of North America I forecasted has come to pass. Some regions have reported their mildest winters in many years.
After calculating long-range astronomical transits, I am forecasting that the months of March, April, May and June will be warmer than average with declining rates of rainfall.
My calculations also indicate a warmer than average summer and autumn season of above normal temperatures. A very dry year is just ahead.
As we enter the coming of spring in the northern hemisphere what will be most noticeable are the above average warm temperatures just as the vernal equinox of March 20, 2012 approaches.
This general climate forecast covers the next nine (9) months - from March to November 2012. In effect, the seasons of spring, summer and autumn.
My climate forecast in brief - Prepare for a warmer than normal and very dry year just ahead.
Global Warming
The Earth is now entering its 32nd year of Solar-forced global warming.
This means, according to my calculations, that there are four (4) remaining years of above average temperatures at local regions worldwide before the global warming regime gives way to the start of global cooling later in this decade.
The warm years ahead are not the result of ‘man-made global warming’ - as no such thing exists.
According to the laws of thermodynamics and physics; only the Sun can cause global warming. The world has been in its most recent warming phase since 1980. I have forecasted that the global warming regime - a total of 36 years - will end in about 2016-17.
Advanced climatologists today say that the Earth is currently in an interglacial period. See Doug Cotton's paper on Radiated Energy and The Second Law of Thermodynamics -> tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/radiated_energy.pdf
In astrometeorology we know that there are climate cycles that pertain directly to the Sun's condition. We also know that Jupiter's effect on the eccentricity of Sun-Earth synod and the Earth's radiative fluctuations in relation to conjunctions and oppositions to Saturn play strong roles in climate conditions.
According to my calculations, our solar-forced global warming will end later this decade, not with a whimper, but with a bang.
Until that time, populations will experience well above normal average temperatures featuring drought, high winds and heat waves followed by warmer than normal fall seasons and mild winters – excepting one particular winter season – over the next four years.
General Climate Seasonal Forecast - Spring, Summer & Autumn 2012
The Spring of 2012 will feature summer-like temperatures for most of North America with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska that will feature cooler than average temperatures.
If you want to stay cool during the heat waves of 2012 then head to the northwest.
The year 2012 will be an above average year of warmer than normal temperatures along with drier than normal conditions for southern regions in the United States through to Central and South America.
I have calculated that the summer and autumn of 2012 will be like the intense heat and drought of the year 1988.
In that year, the results of the solar-forced warming because of constant heat in the northern hemisphere led to between 5,000 to 10,000 people dying though estimated totals for 1988 were said to be 17,000 deaths.
The heat waves will extend into what I am also forecasting will be an Indian Summer of 2012 with above average temperatures and dry conditions through the fall season.
Many city, county and state health departments will be forced to issue hot weather health warnings with air pollution and high ozone level advisories this year.
Temperatures
According to my calculations, 2012 will be a very warm year with record-setting heat waves. The summer will feature sweltering temperatures that could easily reach over 100+ degrees Fahrenheit with persistence.
High summer temperatures- heat waves - will dominate all summer and straight into September and October 2012 with above average warmer than normal temperatures that will easily extend into the autumn season.
My calculations show to expect daily average temperatures to exceed the expected average temperatures of 63+ degrees over 92 days during the months of June, July and August 2012 with 3-4 major heat waves - each lasting multiple days with daily maximums above 90+ degrees Fahrenheit with 100+ degree readings ample across the United States.
A blistering summer is just ahead right into September 2012 as well as a heat wave will occur in that month as well.
Take protection against the Sun’s rays and the high temperatures with this advice –
Slow down. Avoid strenuous activity. If you must do strenuous activity, do it during the coolest part of the day, which is usually in the morning between 4:00 a.m. and 7:00 a.m.
Stay indoors as much as possible. If air conditioning is not available, stay on the lowest floor, out of the sunshine.
Try to go to a public building with air conditioning each day for several hours. Remember, electric fans do not cool the air, but they do help sweat evaporate, which cools your body.
Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. Light colors will reflect away some of the Sun's energy. Drink plenty of water regularly and often. Your body needs water to stay cool. Drink plenty of fluids even if you do not feel thirsty.
Water is the safest liquid to drink during heat emergencies. Avoid drinks that have alcohol or caffeine in them. They can make you feel good for a short time, but they make the heat wave effects on your body worse. This is especially true about beer as beer dehydrates the body.
Eat small meals and eat more often. Avoid foods that are high in protein - that increases metabolic heat.
Protect your pets and animals. Ensure they have a cool place out of the direct sunlight to rest. Do not encourage excessive play or work activities for an animal during a heat wave. Make sure your animals have access to plenty of fresh cool water to keep them hydrated as well.
The climate conditions I am predicting will be very much in the news in 2012 -
Heat Waves - Prolonged period of excessive heat and humidity. The National Weather Service steps up its procedures to alert the public during these periods of excessive heat and humidity.
Heat Indices - A number in degrees of Fahrenheit (F) which tells us how hot it really feels when relative humidity is added to the actual air temperature. Exposure to full sunshine can increase the heat index by 15 degrees F.
Heat Cramps - Heat cramps are muscular pains and spasms due to heavy exertion. Although heat cramps are the least severe they are early signals that the body is having trouble with the heat.
Heat Exhaustion - Heat exhaustion typically occurs when people exercise heavily or work in a hot, humid place where body fluids are lost through heavy sweating. Blood flow to the skin increases, causing blood flow to decrease to the vital organs. This results in a form of mild shock. If not treated, the victim may suffer heat stroke.
Heat Stroke – Sun stroke is another way of saying heat stroke and it is life-threatening. This is because a person’s temperature body system that encourages sweating to cool the body - simply stops working. The result is a body temperature rising so high that brain damage and death can result if the body is not quickly cooled.
Under the climate conditions of 2012 we will see drought spread and become worse over the year with drier than normal conditions with decreased levels of precipitation.
Drought
Astromet forecasts that strong atmospheric conditions will remain in effect through the spring, summer and autumn months of 2012 for the Southwestern United States. This means exceptional drought conditions.
There will be warmer than normal temperatures with drier than normal climate conditions featuring persisting drought that will continue to persist for farmers.
Droughts will also be experienced in Africa and Europe where the lack of normal rainfall will lead to water-rationing this year and into early 2013.
City dwellers in North America may have to deal with water-restrictions as municipalities struggle to maintain water demand levels.
This drought I am forecasting for 2012, 2013 to 2014 is due to astronomical configurations relative to the Earth along with the condition of the Sun and its impact on the world’s climate.
The South, Southwest, Great Plains and western U.S. will be accompanied by heat waves that are threatening to people, livestock and crops.
The states of Iowa, Missouri, eastern Nebraska, Kansas and certain portions of Colorado will also be drier and warmer than normal with blistering solar conditions along with sometimes high winds.
It is essential to take precautions in the months of April and May when above normal average temperatures will already be in place.
The drought of 2012-2013 will be similar in part to the costliest drought year of 1988-89 that caused damages in the U.S. somewhere between $80 billion and almost $120 billion in damage.
The winter rains over Oklahoma and Texas will have assisted farmers with their soil moisture conditions enough to have crops planted however precipitation will be below normal for sustaining crops.
Coming out of winter, livestock should be able to have enough forage across parts of eastern Texas and Oklahoma as well as regions near the Gulf coast that will allow pastures to green enough for livestock.
The problem this year for cotton growers will be soil temperatures and moisture that are critical for high-yielding crops.
The early dates of March 24 to April 18 will see cold fronts that will lower soil temperatures to upper 50-degrees Fahrenheit over that period of time.
Soil temperatures need to be at 65 degrees for three or more days along with a week of good weather conditions before seeding of cotton crops can take place. The cold fronts of late March through to mid-April will cause additional problems to seed cotton crops.
Rainfall is needed in places like the High Plains, Coastal Bend, Oklahoma, New Mexico and all of Texas where cotton growers require at least 15 inches of precipitation to make up for the pre-drought conditions that have struck the south and southwest.
Ground water for ponds, reservoirs, rivers and streams are low due to the drought however my long-range forecast shows that drought conditions will increase in 2012.
The regions of the south and southwest are in for another difficult dry and warm year with extreme temperatures well over the 100-degree mark during the summer and into the early autumn season.
Farmers should take care to mind land that is only marginally arable and avoid pumping groundwater near depletion marks.
I am forecasting that the year 2012-2013 will come close to matching one of the worst droughts in U.S history that occurred in 1998-89 – known as a “multi-year drought” which began in 1988 and continued into 1989.
It caused $60 billion in damage as the drought showed the worst dust storm events since 1977 in many locations in the Mid-Western United States.
Wildfires
I am issuing a General Wildfire Alert for all of 2012 worldwide due to the astronomical configurations that show drier than normal and warmer than normal climate conditions.
The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) located in Boise, Idaho will have a busy year because of the dry and windy conditions – particularly in the summer and fall months of 2012.
Regions of extreme wildfires will be Yellowstone National Park, Texas, Oklahoma, western/northern Florida, Alabama, and parts of South Carolina.
For instance, in 2011, it was reported that 30,547 wildfires burned 3,993,716 acres across the state of Texas.
Because of the drought, high temperatures and lack of substantive rains, I expect wildfires to persist through 2012 into 2013 and 2014.
Forecast – Insect Infestations
Astronomical transits indicate that the next four climate years, along with the new climate year of 2012-2013 - will feature above normal insect populations that will swarm – especially in the western and southern American states.
Be prepared for increased insect and pest activity in 2012.
Allergy season will have arrived earlier than normal with pollen-related symptoms exploding in March and April.
The mild winter will have increase insect larvae with various insects reproducing earlier than normal because of the mild climate conditions over winter.
Expect swarms of bees in the west and southern states; growing wasp colonies; ants; stink bugs and termites along with many other pests through the spring, summer and autumn seasons.
The mosquito population, especially in the Northeastern, Upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states will also be a problem. The warmer than normal temperatures and climate of spring will produce ticks infected with Lyme disease.
This means that pest companies should add an extra month to the pest control season to get ahead of the insect troubles I am forecasting.
One of the biggest problems will be the brown marmorated stinkbugs – known technically as Halyomorpha halys – that is about to become a real plague in 2012.
The stinkbug originates from Asia and spends the winter hibernating in houses before they emerge into the open to destroy all sorts of crops. It is a nuisance pest both indoors and out.
Warm spring and summer conditions permit the development of two or three generations of stinkbugs. But, in parts of sub-tropical China climate records show these to be from four to six generations per year.
The adult stinkbugs usually emerge sometime in the spring of the year from late April to mid-May to mate.
They deposit their eggs from May to August. Their eggs hatch into small black and red nymphs that go through five molts as adult stinkbugs begin to search for overwintering sites beginning in September through the first half of October.
The brown marmorated stink bug is an insect not previously seen in North America but was first reported in America in the mid-to-late 1990s.
The name ‘stinkbug’ comes from the smelly scent glands located on the dorsal surface of the bug’s abdomen and the underside of its thorax.
The rank odor from the stinkbug is a chemically-based to trans-2-decenal and trans-2-Octenal with a pungent smell if the bug feels threatened.
The bug’s ability to leave an odor through holes in its abdomen is a defense mechanism meant to prevent it from being eaten by birds and other animals.
Even handling the stinkbug by attempting to move it can trigger the stinkbug to release the odor. If the bugs are crushed the smell immediately enters the environment.
Wikipedia says, “The stinkbug was accidentally introduced into the United States from China or Japan. It is believed to have "hitched a ride" as a stowaway in packing crates.
The first documented specimen was collected in Allentown, Pennsylvania, in September 1998. Several Muhlenberg College students were reported to have seen stinkbugs as early as August 1998.
Other reports have the brown marmorated stink bug recovered as early as 2000 in New Jersey from a black light trap run by the Rutgers Cooperative Extension (RCE) Vegetable Integrated Pest Management program in Milford, New Jersey.
In 2002, it was again collected in New Jersey from black light traps located in Phillipsburg and Little York and was found on plant material in Stewartsville.
It was quickly documented and established in many counties in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut and New York on the eastern coast of the United States.
By 2009, this agricultural pest had reached Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, Ohio, and Oregon.
In 2010 this pest was found in additional states including Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, and other states. As of November, 2011 it has been reported to have spread to 34 American states.”
These insects are not known to cause harm to humans, although homeowners become alarmed when the bugs enter their homes and noisily fly about. The brown marmorated stinkbugs will not reproduce inside structures or cause damages.
However, if many of the bugs are squashed or pulled inside a vacuum cleaner, the resulting rank smell will be apparent.
They are attracted to the outside of houses on warm autumn days in search of protected sites before winter when they will occasionally reappear during warm and sunny winter days. They emerge as spring nears.
The brown marmorated stink bug is from the insect family known as Pentatomidae and is well-known as an agricultural pest in its native habitat of China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.
Crop Damage
Stinkbugs are serious year-round pests of fruit, vegetable and orchard crops throughout the Mid-Atlantic region and more than likely to become a pest in other areas in the United States.
The stink bug feeds on a variety of host plants. The fruits and crops attacked include apples, peaches, figs, mulberries, citrus fruits and persimmons.
This bug has also been reported on many ornamental plants like weeds, soybeans and beans. Feeding on apple trees results in a characteristic distortion referred to as “cat facing,” that renders fresh apples unmarketable.
In the year 2010, the Asian stinkbug produced severe losses in apple and peach orchards.
The stinkbugs also feed on blackberry, sweet corn, field corn and soybeans. In other states it has been observed damaging tomatoes, lima beans and green peppers.
The adult stinkbugs are approximately 17 mm in length (25 mm = one inch.) They have various shades of brown on their upper and lower body surfaces with a flattened shield shape of other stink bugs – nearly as wide as they are long.
To distinguish them from other stink bugs, look for lighter bands on the antennae and darker bands on the membranous that overlap at the rear of the front pair of wings.
They have patches of what are copper-like or bluish-metallic colored punctures (small rounded depressions) on the head and pronotum.
Their eggs are elliptical (1.6 x 1.3 mm), colored light yellow to yellow-red with minute spines forming fine lines. They are attached, side-by-side, to the underside of leaves in masses of 20 to 30 eggs.
Mechanical exclusion is the best method to keep stink bugs from entering homes and buildings.
Cracks around windows, doors, siding, utility pipes, behind chimneys, and underneath the wood fascia and other openings should be sealed with good quality silicone or silicone-latex caulk. Damaged screens on doors and windows should be repaired or replaced.
Aerosol-type pyrethrum foggers will kill stinkbugs that have amassed on ceilings and walls in living areas, but it will not prevent more stinkbugs insects from returning after the room is aired.
So it is not a good solution for long-term management of the problem. Moreover, spray insecticides applied directly into cracks and crevices will not prevent the stinkbugs from gaining entry.
Outside applications of insecticides may offer some minor relief from infestations where the task of completely sealing the exterior is difficult or impossible.
But because insecticides are rapidly broken down by sunlight the residual effects of the material will be greatly decreased and may not kill the insects for more than several days or a week.
If many stinkbugs bugs are entering the home, try to find the openings where they gain access. The stink bugs usually emerge from cracks under or behind baseboards, around windows and door trims and around exhaust fans or the lights in ceilings.
Seal those openings with caulk to prevent the insects from crawling out. Both live and dead stink bugs can then be removed from interior areas with the aid of a vacuum cleaner – remember that vacuum pick up the smell of stink bugs.
It is not advised to use insecticides inside a house after the insects have already gotten access into wall voids or attic areas.
Some insecticide dust treatments will kill hundreds of stinkbugs but with the potential that carpet beetles will feed on the dead stink bugs only to then attack woolen clothing, stored dry goods and other natural products in the home.
Only particular species of spiders and praying mantises are known to attack the stink bug.
The only known predators of stinkbugs in Asia are parasitoid wasps, not present in the Americas but are planned to be introduced in 2013 to combat the infestation of the brown marmorated stink bug.
In short, it is important to prepare early for insect infestations in the warmer and than normal climate I've forecast for 2012 into 2013.
General Climate Conclusions
Based on my astrometeorological calculations, the general climate and weather year 2012 will feature above normal warm temperatures. It will be drier than normal with high winds generally from June 2012 through to June 2013 under this climate regime over North America.
Warmer than average temperatures and below normal rainfall means spreading threats of drought and wildfires with extreme levels of drought in the south, southwest and southeastern U.S. states.
It will be the air that is powerfully highlighted in 2012 – with sultry, steamy and blazing conditions featuring hot temperatures and high ozone levels that will make 2012 one of the warmest years on record according to my climate calculations.
Stay safe out there.
- Theodore White, astrometeorologist.S
Forecast published March 12, 2012
Public Forecast - North America
General Climate Seasonal Forecast: Spring, Summer & Autumn 2012
Produced: March 12, 2012
Forecast By Theodore White, astrometeorologist.S
The mild and dry winter 2012 for most of North America I forecasted has come to pass. Some regions have reported their mildest winters in many years.
After calculating long-range astronomical transits, I am forecasting that the months of March, April, May and June will be warmer than average with declining rates of rainfall.
My calculations also indicate a warmer than average summer and autumn season of above normal temperatures. A very dry year is just ahead.
As we enter the coming of spring in the northern hemisphere what will be most noticeable are the above average warm temperatures just as the vernal equinox of March 20, 2012 approaches.
This general climate forecast covers the next nine (9) months - from March to November 2012. In effect, the seasons of spring, summer and autumn.
My climate forecast in brief - Prepare for a warmer than normal and very dry year just ahead.
Global Warming
The Earth is now entering its 32nd year of Solar-forced global warming.
This means, according to my calculations, that there are four (4) remaining years of above average temperatures at local regions worldwide before the global warming regime gives way to the start of global cooling later in this decade.
The warm years ahead are not the result of ‘man-made global warming’ - as no such thing exists.
According to the laws of thermodynamics and physics; only the Sun can cause global warming. The world has been in its most recent warming phase since 1980. I have forecasted that the global warming regime - a total of 36 years - will end in about 2016-17.
Advanced climatologists today say that the Earth is currently in an interglacial period. See Doug Cotton's paper on Radiated Energy and The Second Law of Thermodynamics -> tallbloke.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/radiated_energy.pdf
In astrometeorology we know that there are climate cycles that pertain directly to the Sun's condition. We also know that Jupiter's effect on the eccentricity of Sun-Earth synod and the Earth's radiative fluctuations in relation to conjunctions and oppositions to Saturn play strong roles in climate conditions.
According to my calculations, our solar-forced global warming will end later this decade, not with a whimper, but with a bang.
Until that time, populations will experience well above normal average temperatures featuring drought, high winds and heat waves followed by warmer than normal fall seasons and mild winters – excepting one particular winter season – over the next four years.
General Climate Seasonal Forecast - Spring, Summer & Autumn 2012
The Spring of 2012 will feature summer-like temperatures for most of North America with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska that will feature cooler than average temperatures.
If you want to stay cool during the heat waves of 2012 then head to the northwest.
The year 2012 will be an above average year of warmer than normal temperatures along with drier than normal conditions for southern regions in the United States through to Central and South America.
I have calculated that the summer and autumn of 2012 will be like the intense heat and drought of the year 1988.
In that year, the results of the solar-forced warming because of constant heat in the northern hemisphere led to between 5,000 to 10,000 people dying though estimated totals for 1988 were said to be 17,000 deaths.
The heat waves will extend into what I am also forecasting will be an Indian Summer of 2012 with above average temperatures and dry conditions through the fall season.
Many city, county and state health departments will be forced to issue hot weather health warnings with air pollution and high ozone level advisories this year.
Temperatures
According to my calculations, 2012 will be a very warm year with record-setting heat waves. The summer will feature sweltering temperatures that could easily reach over 100+ degrees Fahrenheit with persistence.
High summer temperatures- heat waves - will dominate all summer and straight into September and October 2012 with above average warmer than normal temperatures that will easily extend into the autumn season.
My calculations show to expect daily average temperatures to exceed the expected average temperatures of 63+ degrees over 92 days during the months of June, July and August 2012 with 3-4 major heat waves - each lasting multiple days with daily maximums above 90+ degrees Fahrenheit with 100+ degree readings ample across the United States.
A blistering summer is just ahead right into September 2012 as well as a heat wave will occur in that month as well.
Take protection against the Sun’s rays and the high temperatures with this advice –
Slow down. Avoid strenuous activity. If you must do strenuous activity, do it during the coolest part of the day, which is usually in the morning between 4:00 a.m. and 7:00 a.m.
Stay indoors as much as possible. If air conditioning is not available, stay on the lowest floor, out of the sunshine.
Try to go to a public building with air conditioning each day for several hours. Remember, electric fans do not cool the air, but they do help sweat evaporate, which cools your body.
Wear lightweight, light-colored clothing. Light colors will reflect away some of the Sun's energy. Drink plenty of water regularly and often. Your body needs water to stay cool. Drink plenty of fluids even if you do not feel thirsty.
Water is the safest liquid to drink during heat emergencies. Avoid drinks that have alcohol or caffeine in them. They can make you feel good for a short time, but they make the heat wave effects on your body worse. This is especially true about beer as beer dehydrates the body.
Eat small meals and eat more often. Avoid foods that are high in protein - that increases metabolic heat.
Protect your pets and animals. Ensure they have a cool place out of the direct sunlight to rest. Do not encourage excessive play or work activities for an animal during a heat wave. Make sure your animals have access to plenty of fresh cool water to keep them hydrated as well.
The climate conditions I am predicting will be very much in the news in 2012 -
Heat Waves - Prolonged period of excessive heat and humidity. The National Weather Service steps up its procedures to alert the public during these periods of excessive heat and humidity.
Heat Indices - A number in degrees of Fahrenheit (F) which tells us how hot it really feels when relative humidity is added to the actual air temperature. Exposure to full sunshine can increase the heat index by 15 degrees F.
Heat Cramps - Heat cramps are muscular pains and spasms due to heavy exertion. Although heat cramps are the least severe they are early signals that the body is having trouble with the heat.
Heat Exhaustion - Heat exhaustion typically occurs when people exercise heavily or work in a hot, humid place where body fluids are lost through heavy sweating. Blood flow to the skin increases, causing blood flow to decrease to the vital organs. This results in a form of mild shock. If not treated, the victim may suffer heat stroke.
Heat Stroke – Sun stroke is another way of saying heat stroke and it is life-threatening. This is because a person’s temperature body system that encourages sweating to cool the body - simply stops working. The result is a body temperature rising so high that brain damage and death can result if the body is not quickly cooled.
Under the climate conditions of 2012 we will see drought spread and become worse over the year with drier than normal conditions with decreased levels of precipitation.
Drought
Astromet forecasts that strong atmospheric conditions will remain in effect through the spring, summer and autumn months of 2012 for the Southwestern United States. This means exceptional drought conditions.
There will be warmer than normal temperatures with drier than normal climate conditions featuring persisting drought that will continue to persist for farmers.
Droughts will also be experienced in Africa and Europe where the lack of normal rainfall will lead to water-rationing this year and into early 2013.
City dwellers in North America may have to deal with water-restrictions as municipalities struggle to maintain water demand levels.
This drought I am forecasting for 2012, 2013 to 2014 is due to astronomical configurations relative to the Earth along with the condition of the Sun and its impact on the world’s climate.
The South, Southwest, Great Plains and western U.S. will be accompanied by heat waves that are threatening to people, livestock and crops.
The states of Iowa, Missouri, eastern Nebraska, Kansas and certain portions of Colorado will also be drier and warmer than normal with blistering solar conditions along with sometimes high winds.
It is essential to take precautions in the months of April and May when above normal average temperatures will already be in place.
The drought of 2012-2013 will be similar in part to the costliest drought year of 1988-89 that caused damages in the U.S. somewhere between $80 billion and almost $120 billion in damage.
The winter rains over Oklahoma and Texas will have assisted farmers with their soil moisture conditions enough to have crops planted however precipitation will be below normal for sustaining crops.
Coming out of winter, livestock should be able to have enough forage across parts of eastern Texas and Oklahoma as well as regions near the Gulf coast that will allow pastures to green enough for livestock.
The problem this year for cotton growers will be soil temperatures and moisture that are critical for high-yielding crops.
The early dates of March 24 to April 18 will see cold fronts that will lower soil temperatures to upper 50-degrees Fahrenheit over that period of time.
Soil temperatures need to be at 65 degrees for three or more days along with a week of good weather conditions before seeding of cotton crops can take place. The cold fronts of late March through to mid-April will cause additional problems to seed cotton crops.
Rainfall is needed in places like the High Plains, Coastal Bend, Oklahoma, New Mexico and all of Texas where cotton growers require at least 15 inches of precipitation to make up for the pre-drought conditions that have struck the south and southwest.
Ground water for ponds, reservoirs, rivers and streams are low due to the drought however my long-range forecast shows that drought conditions will increase in 2012.
The regions of the south and southwest are in for another difficult dry and warm year with extreme temperatures well over the 100-degree mark during the summer and into the early autumn season.
Farmers should take care to mind land that is only marginally arable and avoid pumping groundwater near depletion marks.
I am forecasting that the year 2012-2013 will come close to matching one of the worst droughts in U.S history that occurred in 1998-89 – known as a “multi-year drought” which began in 1988 and continued into 1989.
It caused $60 billion in damage as the drought showed the worst dust storm events since 1977 in many locations in the Mid-Western United States.
Wildfires
I am issuing a General Wildfire Alert for all of 2012 worldwide due to the astronomical configurations that show drier than normal and warmer than normal climate conditions.
The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) located in Boise, Idaho will have a busy year because of the dry and windy conditions – particularly in the summer and fall months of 2012.
Regions of extreme wildfires will be Yellowstone National Park, Texas, Oklahoma, western/northern Florida, Alabama, and parts of South Carolina.
For instance, in 2011, it was reported that 30,547 wildfires burned 3,993,716 acres across the state of Texas.
Because of the drought, high temperatures and lack of substantive rains, I expect wildfires to persist through 2012 into 2013 and 2014.
Forecast – Insect Infestations
Astronomical transits indicate that the next four climate years, along with the new climate year of 2012-2013 - will feature above normal insect populations that will swarm – especially in the western and southern American states.
Be prepared for increased insect and pest activity in 2012.
Allergy season will have arrived earlier than normal with pollen-related symptoms exploding in March and April.
The mild winter will have increase insect larvae with various insects reproducing earlier than normal because of the mild climate conditions over winter.
Expect swarms of bees in the west and southern states; growing wasp colonies; ants; stink bugs and termites along with many other pests through the spring, summer and autumn seasons.
The mosquito population, especially in the Northeastern, Upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states will also be a problem. The warmer than normal temperatures and climate of spring will produce ticks infected with Lyme disease.
This means that pest companies should add an extra month to the pest control season to get ahead of the insect troubles I am forecasting.
One of the biggest problems will be the brown marmorated stinkbugs – known technically as Halyomorpha halys – that is about to become a real plague in 2012.
The stinkbug originates from Asia and spends the winter hibernating in houses before they emerge into the open to destroy all sorts of crops. It is a nuisance pest both indoors and out.
Warm spring and summer conditions permit the development of two or three generations of stinkbugs. But, in parts of sub-tropical China climate records show these to be from four to six generations per year.
The adult stinkbugs usually emerge sometime in the spring of the year from late April to mid-May to mate.
They deposit their eggs from May to August. Their eggs hatch into small black and red nymphs that go through five molts as adult stinkbugs begin to search for overwintering sites beginning in September through the first half of October.
The brown marmorated stink bug is an insect not previously seen in North America but was first reported in America in the mid-to-late 1990s.
The name ‘stinkbug’ comes from the smelly scent glands located on the dorsal surface of the bug’s abdomen and the underside of its thorax.
The rank odor from the stinkbug is a chemically-based to trans-2-decenal and trans-2-Octenal with a pungent smell if the bug feels threatened.
The bug’s ability to leave an odor through holes in its abdomen is a defense mechanism meant to prevent it from being eaten by birds and other animals.
Even handling the stinkbug by attempting to move it can trigger the stinkbug to release the odor. If the bugs are crushed the smell immediately enters the environment.
Wikipedia says, “The stinkbug was accidentally introduced into the United States from China or Japan. It is believed to have "hitched a ride" as a stowaway in packing crates.
The first documented specimen was collected in Allentown, Pennsylvania, in September 1998. Several Muhlenberg College students were reported to have seen stinkbugs as early as August 1998.
Other reports have the brown marmorated stink bug recovered as early as 2000 in New Jersey from a black light trap run by the Rutgers Cooperative Extension (RCE) Vegetable Integrated Pest Management program in Milford, New Jersey.
In 2002, it was again collected in New Jersey from black light traps located in Phillipsburg and Little York and was found on plant material in Stewartsville.
It was quickly documented and established in many counties in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut and New York on the eastern coast of the United States.
By 2009, this agricultural pest had reached Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, Ohio, and Oregon.
In 2010 this pest was found in additional states including Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, and other states. As of November, 2011 it has been reported to have spread to 34 American states.”
These insects are not known to cause harm to humans, although homeowners become alarmed when the bugs enter their homes and noisily fly about. The brown marmorated stinkbugs will not reproduce inside structures or cause damages.
However, if many of the bugs are squashed or pulled inside a vacuum cleaner, the resulting rank smell will be apparent.
They are attracted to the outside of houses on warm autumn days in search of protected sites before winter when they will occasionally reappear during warm and sunny winter days. They emerge as spring nears.
The brown marmorated stink bug is from the insect family known as Pentatomidae and is well-known as an agricultural pest in its native habitat of China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.
Crop Damage
Stinkbugs are serious year-round pests of fruit, vegetable and orchard crops throughout the Mid-Atlantic region and more than likely to become a pest in other areas in the United States.
The stink bug feeds on a variety of host plants. The fruits and crops attacked include apples, peaches, figs, mulberries, citrus fruits and persimmons.
This bug has also been reported on many ornamental plants like weeds, soybeans and beans. Feeding on apple trees results in a characteristic distortion referred to as “cat facing,” that renders fresh apples unmarketable.
In the year 2010, the Asian stinkbug produced severe losses in apple and peach orchards.
The stinkbugs also feed on blackberry, sweet corn, field corn and soybeans. In other states it has been observed damaging tomatoes, lima beans and green peppers.
The adult stinkbugs are approximately 17 mm in length (25 mm = one inch.) They have various shades of brown on their upper and lower body surfaces with a flattened shield shape of other stink bugs – nearly as wide as they are long.
To distinguish them from other stink bugs, look for lighter bands on the antennae and darker bands on the membranous that overlap at the rear of the front pair of wings.
They have patches of what are copper-like or bluish-metallic colored punctures (small rounded depressions) on the head and pronotum.
Their eggs are elliptical (1.6 x 1.3 mm), colored light yellow to yellow-red with minute spines forming fine lines. They are attached, side-by-side, to the underside of leaves in masses of 20 to 30 eggs.
Mechanical exclusion is the best method to keep stink bugs from entering homes and buildings.
Cracks around windows, doors, siding, utility pipes, behind chimneys, and underneath the wood fascia and other openings should be sealed with good quality silicone or silicone-latex caulk. Damaged screens on doors and windows should be repaired or replaced.
Aerosol-type pyrethrum foggers will kill stinkbugs that have amassed on ceilings and walls in living areas, but it will not prevent more stinkbugs insects from returning after the room is aired.
So it is not a good solution for long-term management of the problem. Moreover, spray insecticides applied directly into cracks and crevices will not prevent the stinkbugs from gaining entry.
Outside applications of insecticides may offer some minor relief from infestations where the task of completely sealing the exterior is difficult or impossible.
But because insecticides are rapidly broken down by sunlight the residual effects of the material will be greatly decreased and may not kill the insects for more than several days or a week.
If many stinkbugs bugs are entering the home, try to find the openings where they gain access. The stink bugs usually emerge from cracks under or behind baseboards, around windows and door trims and around exhaust fans or the lights in ceilings.
Seal those openings with caulk to prevent the insects from crawling out. Both live and dead stink bugs can then be removed from interior areas with the aid of a vacuum cleaner – remember that vacuum pick up the smell of stink bugs.
It is not advised to use insecticides inside a house after the insects have already gotten access into wall voids or attic areas.
Some insecticide dust treatments will kill hundreds of stinkbugs but with the potential that carpet beetles will feed on the dead stink bugs only to then attack woolen clothing, stored dry goods and other natural products in the home.
Only particular species of spiders and praying mantises are known to attack the stink bug.
The only known predators of stinkbugs in Asia are parasitoid wasps, not present in the Americas but are planned to be introduced in 2013 to combat the infestation of the brown marmorated stink bug.
In short, it is important to prepare early for insect infestations in the warmer and than normal climate I've forecast for 2012 into 2013.
General Climate Conclusions
Based on my astrometeorological calculations, the general climate and weather year 2012 will feature above normal warm temperatures. It will be drier than normal with high winds generally from June 2012 through to June 2013 under this climate regime over North America.
Warmer than average temperatures and below normal rainfall means spreading threats of drought and wildfires with extreme levels of drought in the south, southwest and southeastern U.S. states.
It will be the air that is powerfully highlighted in 2012 – with sultry, steamy and blazing conditions featuring hot temperatures and high ozone levels that will make 2012 one of the warmest years on record according to my climate calculations.
Stay safe out there.
- Theodore White, astrometeorologist.S
Forecast published March 12, 2012