fred
New Member
Posts: 48
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Post by fred on Jul 6, 2012 14:32:32 GMT
Got to hand it to you Astromet, you're pretty good at this.
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ray
New Member
Posts: 35
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Post by ray on Jul 10, 2012 16:34:16 GMT
Theo, a lot of forecasters are calling for a strengthening el nino in the pacific ocean and that this will ease dry conditions in the u.s. by late summer. Do you agree with this? Thanks, Ray
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 15, 2012 2:28:39 GMT
Got to hand it to you Astromet, you're pretty good at this. Thank you Fred. I work hard to do my best.
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Post by AstroMet on Jul 15, 2012 2:31:59 GMT
Theo, a lot of forecasters are calling for a strengthening el nino in the pacific ocean and that this will ease dry conditions in the u.s. by late summer. Do you agree with this? Thanks, Ray I don't see any easing of dry conditions Ray; especially in the Midwest & west until late next year. There will precipitation relief in some regions affected by dry climate conditions in early 2013, but at least through next spring I continue to see extremely dry, and sometimes windy conditions that will exacerbate the drought. We're already into a very serious situation in the west and Midwestern U.S. regarding corn crops. It's going to be a bad harvest this year resulting in higher food and ethanol prices.
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Post by boxman on Jul 29, 2012 22:45:54 GMT
AstroMetSo do you know if summer will ever arrive in Norway/scandinavia this year? So far there has been very little sign of summer at all, with exception of a few days there with temps barely reaching over 20c.
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 30, 2012 1:51:48 GMT
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birder
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 223
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Post by birder on Jul 31, 2012 22:10:00 GMT
I haven't seen this website before, how accurate are they?
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 1, 2012 2:24:53 GMT
birder: The 30-60 day isn't too bad. I would rate it about 60%. Further out than that it becomes a crap shoot.
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Post by boxman on Aug 1, 2012 13:23:08 GMT
Highly doubt that as there as summer ends in second part of august or first part of september anyways. Above normal temps in fall which has been norm for decades now is not even going to bring temp above 20c. You can just forget getting a tan as well or even vitamin d, since the sun is so low in the sky that it is so weak you will hardly even feel it.
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birder
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 223
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Post by birder on Aug 1, 2012 16:35:34 GMT
birder: The 30-60 day isn't too bad. I would rate it about 60%. Further out than that it becomes a crap shoot. I've had a further look at the early predictions and I'm not impressed, we have just had one of the wettest and coolest summers in my memory but they were nowhere near. The Met Office gave up giving long range forecasts, maybe they should also. Geoff
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Post by AstroMet on Aug 8, 2012 3:35:48 GMT
AstroMetSo do you know if summer will ever arrive in Norway/scandinavia this year? So far there has been very little sign of summer at all, with exception of a few days there with temps barely reaching over 20c. At the angle you're at, the indications are of a late summer surge in late August into September with warmer temperatures boxman. It won't be much, but enough to give Norwegians a bit of a taste of summer this year.
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Post by AstroMet on Aug 8, 2012 22:48:52 GMT
birder: The 30-60 day isn't too bad. I would rate it about 60%. Further out than that it becomes a crap shoot. Well, not for Astrometeorology. The reason why I post my general long-range forecasts for free here and on other Internet sites is to help people out - especially farmers, who are the hardest working people on the planet. Farmers work very hard to feed all of us and we should never forget that. Food is not grown in supermarkets - but on farms and that is where the work gets done. That's the brass tacks of how we ultimately get food on the table. The government treats farmers like s*** and the corporations think that they invented food as they ruin topsoil by overtilling - but governments and corporations always forget that in the final analysis it is Mother Nature (that is the weather and climate) who has the last say. And she's saying a lot these days. I forecast that weather & climate by astronomical means and my experience and knowledge is used to help those who need a heads up on the weather and future climate so that they can continue to safely farm, thrive and survive. My private clients pay me to forecast in advance for them because they highly value my advanced forecasts. I am here to help, because the conventional big-ticket climate and meteorological centers with tens of millions using what amounts to useless computer models do not and cannot accurately forecast beyond 10-15 days (if that) which does not exactly help any farmer to adequately prepare for and plan, in advance, of monthly, seasonly and yearly weather/climate conditions. That is why I forecast and I will continue to do so for a long time to come.
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Post by AstroMet on Aug 11, 2012 0:51:06 GMT
As forecasted, the U.S. is officially in a deep drought -
U.S. Farmers Expect Poorest Corn Crop in a Decade
By Jim Suhr Associated Press Business Writer
August 10, 2012 -- ST. LOUIS (AP) — A deepening drought in the nation's farm states has cut further into this fall's harvest, with farmers now expected to pull from their fields the lowest corn yield in more than a decade.
But American farmers are still expected to produce their eighth-largest harvest ever, and while there's sure to be a rise in prices at the grocery stores, there's little risk of a failed harvest that would lead to shortages on the shelves.
The U.S. Agriculture Department predicted the nation's biggest harvest ever in the spring, when farmers planted 96.4 million acres of corn — the most since 1937.
But it cut its estimate a month ago and again Friday, saying it now expects the nation to produce 10.8 billion bushels, the least since 2006.
If that estimate holds, the federal government says it will be enough to meet the world's needs and ensure there are no shortages.
But experts say food prices will almost certainly climb as corn is a widely used ingredient found in everything from cosmetics to cereal, colas and candy bars.
The drought stretching across the U.S. from Ohio west to California is deepest in the middle of the country, and major farm states like Iowa and Illinois are seeing conditions get worse each week.
Farmers credit advances in seed technology that have produced hardier, more drought-tolerant corn for any harvest at all.
"I have to be honest with you, I'm totally stunned we have corn with green stalks and leaves after going through weeks of 105-degree temperature," said Garry Niemeyer, the National Corn Growers Associated president who has 1,200 acres of corn and 800 acres of soybeans near Auburn, Ill.
"Our corn yield normally would be about 190 bushels per acre. This year, if I get 110, I'd be thrilled to death."
The USDA's latest estimate predicts corn farmers will average 123.4 bushels per acre, down 24 bushels from last year in what would be the lowest average yield in 17 years.
But the yield would still be as good as nearly a decade ago, when the average was about 129 bushels in a year without drought.
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack trumpeted the resilience of U.S. farmers and ranchers on Friday, saying he didn't expect immediate increases in food prices and was optimistic the U.S. would continue meeting global demand for grain.
The U.S. is the world's top exporter of corn, soybeans and wheat. "Americans shouldn't see immediate increases in food prices due to the drought," Vilsack said during a trip to drought-stricken Nebraska. "What is important going forward is that we continue to do all we can to help the farmers, ranchers, small businesses and communities being impacted by this drought."
But experts have already been predicting increases in food prices.
Rick Whitacre, a professor of agricultural economics at Illinois State University, said he believes the greatest impact will be in meat and poultry prices, given that many ranchers have sold off livestock as pastures dry up and feed costs rise.
The selloff will result in lower prices through December with a glut of meat on the market — but higher costs beginning next year. Whitacre predicted an eventual 4 to 6 percent increase in the cost of pork and beef.
"You're going to see the ripple of this go out for quite a distance," he said.
The effect on packaged goods and other products is harder to predict because the price of corn may be only a small part of the total cost.
For example, even with today's high corn prices, a 12-ounce box of cornflakes would have only about 8 cents worth of corn, said Paul Bertels, vice president of production and utilization at the National Corn Growers Association.
That's a very small portion of the $4 or so consumers might pay for that box of cereal.
Dennis Conley, an agricultural economist in University of Nebraska's Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, said he expected to see nominally higher prices in U.S. supermarkets, although when "is the million-dollar question."
He thought it might be a month or two before products using corn as an ingredient cost more.
Corn prices have already been going up with steady reports of worsening drought and crop damage, jumping from just under $6 a bushel in late June to over $8 a bushel in early August.
There was little immediate effect from Friday's report, perhaps because the commodities sector expected the bad news.
"There was nothing really surprising. We've already had some private analysts suggesting the crop could be that low," said Mark Schultz, chief analyst at Northstar Commodity in Minneapolis.
"In another two weeks there will be people picking corn in Indiana, Illinois, Iowa. So we'll start getting an idea of what these yields truly are."
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Post by codetalker on Aug 11, 2012 18:12:07 GMT
Out here in the PNW, at least West of the Cascades, the weather has been favorably to farmers. The berry farmers are expecting an excellent harvest, on a side note I've noticed fields of corn that seem late, the plants are small, I assume farmers are hoping they will bear before fall. Just returned from some camping on the Eastern slopes of the Cascades up in the Alpine Lakes Wilderness. LOTS of Water! Rivers very high for this time of year, a secret swimming hole was so heavy with water it looked unsafe to enter. The pool below a series of falls was churning like a washing machine so we opted out this year. Then the Forest Service put in place a burn ban effective Thursday? Strange? Lots of water on the ground and in the lakes and rivers, the meadows are lush and green but a burn ban was issued?
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 15, 2012 14:35:02 GMT
"But the yield would still be as good as nearly a decade ago, when the average was about 129 bushels in a year without drought."
This is true - but the population is greater both in the USA and worldwide. It is still the case that a child dies of hunger every 5 seconds and now the harvest is down. Don't expect any assistance from Russia, Ukraine or China they are in just as bad a state. While both the USA and the EU mandate that corn is turned into ethanol for fuel - its not efficient, it does not reduce emissions of CO2, but it does pass high subsidies to politicians friends and voters. (3 or 4 children have died of hunger while you read this).
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