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Post by trbixler on Mar 16, 2012 12:51:30 GMT
Forget Mr. Green and his minions. Standing on the mount and looking down. As in way down. "The End Holocene, or How to Make Out Like a ‘Madoff’ Climate Change Insurer" "This post is essentially an update to The Antithesis and On “Trap Speed”, the ACC and the SNR. The entire non-debate on anthropogenic climate effects has always struck me “as two fleas arguing over who owns the dog they are riding on” (Crocodile Dundee). One of the required paradigms of AGW is patently ignoring “when we live” (ignorance of signal to noise ratio, or SNR)."  wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/16/the-end-holocene-or-how-to-make-out-like-a-madoff-climate-change-insurer/#more-59330 |
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Post by trbixler on Jul 28, 2013 14:32:04 GMT
What if things are really different this solar cycle and next?   "Just over two years ago, Richard Altrock of the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak published the latest version of his green corona emissions diagram. He stated at the time that the progression of the Solar Cycle 24 was 40% slower than the average of the previous two cycles. That would make it 15.5 years long. Given that the cycle started in December 2008 and solar maximum is in 2013, that makes the Solar Cycle 24 fall time 11.5 years. Figure 9 shows the strong relationship between fall time and the time from maximum to maximum. Based on that relationship, the Solar Cycle 24 fall time derives a period of 17 years from the Solar Cycle 24 maximum to the Solar Cycle 25 maximum – putting it in 2030." link |
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 28, 2013 15:42:02 GMT
Uncharted territory TR.......
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Jul 28, 2013 16:18:58 GMT
Echoing trbixler on this, I have always felt that mankind is pretty arrogant to feel that mankind is responsible
for anything but the most miniscule shift in his environment. Particularly because of that big hot thing up in the
sky. Accepting the ice core data at face value, the situation does seem comparable to a driver and passenger
arguing while they don't notice the cliff they will drive off... or two pilots arguing while the mountain range
comes ever closer and fills the windshield.
Having said that, because we (and most of life) can only survive in a minutely narrow environmental band, we are all
entitled to look to the short term and immediate needs for life. We won't be able to change our environment any more
than the dinosaurs did. (I'm discounting psychotic events like nuclear war). Investment should be in adapting to
the environment,not into a high cost and high profit strategy aimed at effecting minor cosmetic changes to it.
I believe that we should seek another home elsewhere in the galaxy, at least as a backup, for the medium, longer and
future terms.
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Post by mkelter on Jul 28, 2013 19:50:06 GMT
Uncharted territory TR.......
Echoing Sigurder: The current projections for SC25 are uncharted territories. I should remind you that the same people who are predicting a very small SC25 were the same people predicting a very large SC24. Like the CO2 discussions, I'm not convinced we know enough to make accurate predictions about much of anything beyond today's weather reports. |
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Post by trbixler on Jul 28, 2013 21:08:51 GMT
Mike
My impression of David Archibald is that he is an incredible poly math and so far he has been very correct in his predictions. He was on the other side of the big 24 cycle. Many were calling him a total fool, well now not so much.
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Post by trbixler on Jul 28, 2013 21:14:48 GMT
Well Leif and David are at it as usual. From comments.  link |
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Post by mkelter on Jul 28, 2013 21:21:49 GMT
Mike My impression of David Archibald is that he is an incredible poly math and so far he has been very correct in his predictions. He was on the other side of the big 24 cycle. Many were calling him a total fool, well now not so much. |
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Post by trbixler on Jul 29, 2013 2:01:37 GMT
I think Archibald is calling for a SSN of 7 for SS25. Some of his calculations suggest a -2 to -4 degree c decrease in global temperatures due to cycle 25.
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Post by cuttydyer on Jul 29, 2013 7:43:27 GMT
 The northern polar field reversed in June 2012, the southern July 2013; the polar trends have now crossed but both still remain weakly positive. Looking at this graph (starting 1976) reminds me how little data there is to work with... Link: www.solen.info/solar/ |
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 29, 2013 14:42:24 GMT
In the mean time in other news.... NASA is betting the farm on global warming to continue by 8F by the end of the century ... NASA predicts 8 degrees of warming in the US by 2100If 2014 is the start of the drop in temperatures which some people are claiming then we could see some egg on faces |
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 29, 2013 14:44:12 GMT
I think Archibald is calling for a SSN of 7 for SS25. Some of his calculations suggest a -2 to -4 degree c decrease in global temperatures due to cycle 25. He is forecasting the extremely low number based on Livingstone and Penn's projection of umbral intensity of sunspots leading to no visible spots by 2020 ish |
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Post by trbixler on Jul 29, 2013 18:44:09 GMT
So far Livingston and Penn seem to be on track.  linklink |
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Post by mkelter on Jul 30, 2013 1:40:05 GMT
In the mean time in other news.... NASA is betting the farm on global warming to continue by 8F by the end of the century ... NASA predicts 8 degrees of warming in the US by 2100If 2014 is the start of the drop in temperatures which some people are claiming then we could see some egg on faces |
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Post by magellan on Jul 30, 2013 3:49:26 GMT
Did Hansen infect the population at NASA that bad?
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