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Post by Pooh on Mar 28, 2012 21:05:35 GMT
Selected Precautionary Principle Reference: Wikipedia, n.d.Wikipedia, n.d. Wikipedia. “ Precautionary Principle.†Wikipedia, the Free Encyclopedia. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precautionary_principle “The precautionary principle or precautionary approach states that if an action or policy has a suspected risk of causing harm to the public or to the environment, in the absence of scientific consensus that the action or policy is harmful, the burden of proof that it is not harmful falls on those taking the action.
“This principle allows policy makers to make discretionary decisions in situations where there is the possibility of harm from taking a particular course or making a certain decision when extensive scientific knowledge on the matter is lacking. The principle implies that there is a social responsibility to protect the public from exposure to harm, when scientific investigation has found a plausible risk. These protections can be relaxed only if further scientific findings emerge that provide sound evidence that no harm will result.â€
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Post by Pooh on Mar 28, 2012 21:06:04 GMT
Characteristics of Post Normal SciencePost Normal Science ( PNS) is specifically recommended for environmental issues (including “sustainability�). Post Normal Science includes the following criteria, which can be found in Ravetz, 2001 and more sparsely in other sources: - Problem Complexity
- Uncertainty (facts are uncertain)
- High Stakes - Dangerous (Climate change warming is inferred harmful; this depends upon feedbacks greater than Arrhenius, 1894)
- Irreversible – Permanent; Problem will not go away
- Urgent (decisions urgent)
- Experimentation – “not best suited†- crucial experiments unavailable
- Values in dispute; PNS may influence values within research and even statistics (Ravetz, 2004, Ravetz, 2010)
- It is to extend "democracy" (public debate, politics) (Ravetz, 2004, Ravetz, 2010)
- Politics/Policy/Regulation - Policy Implications are to guide regulatory work
- Quality Assurance (Extended Peer Community)
- Post-Normal approach to Science embodies the Precautionary Principle (Ravetz, 2004, Ravetz, 2010)
- Trust, Integrity, Truth
Some references to Ravetz, 2010 may be error, a confusion in notes with Ravetz, 2004. Sorry.
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Post by Pooh on Mar 28, 2012 21:06:22 GMT
Selected Post Normal Science ReferencesRavetz, 2001. Ravetz, Ph.D., Jerome, and S. Funtowicz. “ Post-Normal Science - Environmental Policy Under Conditions of Complexity.†Philosophy. NUSAP Net, 2001. www.nusap.net/sections.php?op=viewarticle&artid=13 Ravetz, 2004. Ravetz, Ph.D., Jerome. “The Post-normal Science of Precaution.†Futures 36, no. 3 (2004): 347–357. www.iris.ufsc.br/projetopar/docs/RAVETZ.PDF“Science now finds itself in a new and troubled situation. The traditional optimistic picture is problematic and compromised at every turn. The scientific system now faces a crisis of confidence, of legitimacy and ultimately of power. We can usefully distinguish two sorts of science. The ‘mainstream’ is reductionist in style, and increasingly linked to industry. By contrast, the ‘post-normal’ approach embodies the precautionary principle. It depends on public debate, and involves an essential role for the ‘extended peer community’. It is based on the recent recognition of the influence of values on all research, even including the basic statistical tests of significance. It is the appropriate methodology when either systems uncertainties or decision stakes are high; under those conditions the puzzle-solving approach of ‘normal science’ is obsolete. This is a drastic cultural change for science, which many scientists will difficult to accept. But there is no turning back; we can understand post-normal science as the extension of democracy appropriate to the conditions of our age.â€
Ravetz, 2010. Ravetz, Ph.D., Jerome. “ Jerry Ravetz Part 2 – Answer and Explanation to My Critics.†Scientific Blog. Watts Up With That?, February 22, 2010. wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/22/jerry-ravetz-part-2-answer-and-explanation-to-my-critics/- Quotes Pielke, Jr.: “’stealth advocates’, who tell the world and perhaps themselves that they are merely stating scientific truths while they are actually arguing for a particular agendaâ€
- Cites: Bury, Elizabeth. “Climate Change and the Death of Science.†Opinion. Buy the Truth, October 31, 2009. buythetruth.wordpress.com/2009/10/31/climate-change-and-the-death-of-science/
Ravetz, 2011. Ravetz, Ph.D., Jerome. “ PNS, Truth and Science.†Scientific. Tallbloke’s Talkshop, February 8, 2011. tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/02/08/jerome-ravetz-pns-truth-and-science/
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Post by Pooh on Mar 28, 2012 21:06:39 GMT
Incidental Miscellaneous ReferencesArrhenius, Svante. “ On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground.†Philosophical Magazine and Journal Of Science Series 5, Vol 41 (April 1896): 237 – 276. www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdfThis is the famous paper upon which AGW depends. It is the basis for the logarithmic increase of temperature for a doubling of CO2. It gives 1 - 1.2o C for modern doubling. Unfortunately, it is the only science connecting CO2 and surface temperature. The rest of the claimed increase is based on consensus feedback estimates and tuning of models to historical data (elaborate curve fitting ). Unfortunately, the data is in poor shape (i.e., munged IMO). Just The Facts. “ The Ridiculousness Continues – Climate Complexity Compiled.†Scientific. Watts Up With That?, January 21, 2012. wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/21/the-ridiculousness-continues-climate-complexity-compiled/ “With the help of an array of WUWT reader comments on this thread and several others documented within, I’ve been compiling a summary of all potential climatic variables in order to build a conceptual map of Earth’s climate system. The goals of this exercise include: To gain a bigger picture understanding and perspective of Earth’s climate system. To demonstrate that Earth’s climate system is a ridiculously complex, continually evolving and sometimes chaotic beast, with the plethora of variables, many interdependencies and an array of feedbacks, both positive and negative. Your help in completing this exercise would be most appreciated….†Rose, David. “ Forget Global Warming - It’s Cycle 25 We Need to Worry About (and If NASA Scientists Are Right the Thames Will Be Freezing over Again).†Mail Online, January 29, 2012, sec. Science. www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2093264/Forget-global-warming--Cycle-25-need-worry-NASA-scientists-right-Thames-freezing-again.html
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Post by trbixler on Mar 28, 2012 23:44:27 GMT
pooh Are you banned from posting in your own thread?
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Post by Pooh on Mar 29, 2012 5:52:46 GMT
pooh Are you banned from posting in your own thread? Nope! Thanks for asking! I just took off for about 6 hours of family time. ;D Just finished up my "diatribe" now.
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Post by Ratty on Mar 29, 2012 12:45:16 GMT
I look forward to seeing the movie .....
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Post by trbixler on Mar 29, 2012 13:51:11 GMT
What you have missed completely is the human characteristic to be seen as being in charge. There is no PP involved by those that have attained being in charge, they just act. Certainly because they are in charge they must be right on all matters. Further when it is discovered that PNS helps their position of authority they embrace it entirely. A positive feedback loop. A positive feedback loop eventually blows something up. Unfortunately the little people suffer this event in much larger scale. It unfortunately often takes both believers and non believers in its wake.
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Post by lyrch75 on Mar 29, 2012 15:27:23 GMT
Pooh,
Could convert your post into a PDF? For some reason your formatting tricks make them nearly incomprehensible on my PC.
Thanks
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Post by Pooh on Mar 29, 2012 17:21:05 GMT
I look forward to seeing the movie ..... ;D 'The Great Global Warming Swindle" perhaps? ;D
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Post by Pooh on Mar 29, 2012 17:57:54 GMT
See the attachment for a full PDF of this post. It has some revisions / corrections but those have been synchronized with this thread. Enjoy! If you do not see the link to the attachment, please log in. Attachments:
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Post by Pooh on Mar 29, 2012 18:02:47 GMT
The attachment works! You have to be logged in to fetch it.
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Post by Ratty on Mar 29, 2012 21:52:15 GMT
The attachment works! You have to be logged in to fetch it. Thanks Pooh .... you sound surprised that it worked ....
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Post by Pooh on Mar 30, 2012 4:30:07 GMT
The attachment works! You have to be logged in to fetch it. Thanks Pooh .... you sound surprised that it worked .... Yup. First time I used the feature. After all, I am a bear of very little brain. ;D
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