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Post by sigurdur on Jul 31, 2015 0:38:28 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 31, 2015 2:53:53 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jul 31, 2015 19:36:51 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 2, 2015 6:56:12 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 3, 2015 0:43:01 GMT
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 3, 2015 1:37:43 GMT
How many jobs are lost and how much productivity growth is forfeited due to this misdirected investment.
This recovery from recession has been marked by weak wage growth is this the background to that.
The middle class and up are enjoying the fruits of the sprinkled subsidies but the poor are systematically destroyed by the left wing agents in the name of saving the plant and the poor with this agenda.
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Post by walnut on Aug 3, 2015 4:43:38 GMT
We have an army of low-income people who are just not needed by the new hyper-productive economy. Not needed in factories, not quite capable enough to develop their own businesses which could compete with Chinese imports, nothing to do but receive welfare, buy from Walmart, who pays their workers near starvation wages, forcing the rest of us to subsidize their cheap labor costs. The two main institutions in most small cities are the DHS office for the checks, and the local Walmart to cash and spend the checks.
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Post by duwayne on Aug 4, 2015 20:07:46 GMT
When I look at Glennkok’s question on this thread about whether to invest in stocks or gold, I think back to my own methodology for investment decisions and the parallels between that approach and my approach to global warming predictions.
In the case of global warming, I believe there are 2 critical elements driving multi-decadal temperature change. There is a general warming which includes the effects of CO2 and a 60-year cycle caused by Ocean Currents. As long as CO2 growth is steady, with only these 2 variables I believe a layman can make a far better warming prediction than the so-called experts with their pretty much useless and over-hyped models.
In the case of the stock market, there is a general growth in value of about 7% per year including dividend reinvestment. Is there another critical variable? Yes, but it changes with time. My approach is to find the other critical variable if there is one and ignore the hundreds of unimportant factors which don’t have major impacts.
One key parameter I use is that a typical small recession is outside my radar because it’s unpredictable and temporary and it really isn’t that important in the long term. I am looking for factors which will have market effects of more than 15% or and will be clearly evident in a long-term chart.
Using climate prediction terminology, I’m not looking for an “ENSO event” which is unpredictable, temporary and relatively insignificant in the long-term temperature picture even though it has noticeable short-term impacts.
By setting an “importance/predictability” hurdle it is much easier for me to ignore the “distractions” and focus more attention on the real important issue. Generally I find there is only one or maybe 2 issues that are truly important.
If there’s interest, when I get time I’ll follow up with another post on how this all works with stock market investing for purposes of further explaining the technique. And this will explain why I posted the poll on the Fed’s zero interest rate policy which some of you were kind enough to respond to a while back. Don’t worry, I’m not trying to sell you anything.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 5, 2015 1:51:35 GMT
Please go for it duwayne. This topic is as interesting as AGW!
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 5, 2015 2:04:14 GMT
duwayne,
I am all ears! Go for it!
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Post by Ratty on Aug 5, 2015 12:21:45 GMT
" Don’t worry, I’m not trying to sell you anything." Heard the same thing just this afternoon from someone who rang the doorbell.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 5, 2015 19:43:42 GMT
You probably won't come across this on any major news outlet. You probably should ... but you won't. If I wanted America to fail, I'd make sure you didn't. It doesn't support the politically correct line ... and the "correct" view of history. Diversity, after all, is bad in a politically correct world. www.thelocalvoice.net/oxford/?p=25974You might be interested in Anthony's last speech. youtu.be/CqOEU92ONOo
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Post by duwayne on Aug 9, 2015 15:33:00 GMT
I’ve spent much of my time on this website arguing that it’s possible to make a more accurate long term prediction of global temperatures using a “Macro” approach than the so-called experts can with their massive “General Circulation Models”. The idea is to focus on the few things that are important and proven and project them into the future on a gross basis rather than use something that is known to be highly inaccurate and project it into the future on a detailed basis.
Here’s an analogy with the stock market although by no means is it a perfect one.
Predicting major market declines has been nearly impossible using detailed analysis, even with all the sophisticated models and theories developed by PhD economists which focus on interest rates, supply-demand theory, etc.
Could we sometimes do better with a more simplified “Macro” approach? One thing which helps is that each of the 10 US Bear Markets since 1929 can be summarized in a few words - The “Dotcom Bubble, the “Volker Tightening”, “Stagflation”, etc.
Back in 2006-2007 when I was putting together my thoughts on Global Warming, I was also looking into the possibility of a coming Bear Market. The US banks were granting sub-prime loans to home buyers whose income was not high enough to meet future payments. Banks were also loaning money to speculators with no down payments to buy newly built houses with the hope that prices would continue to go up. And they did for quite some time.
Why would banks do this? The so-called sub-prime mortgages could be passed along to “Fannie Mae” and “Freddie Mac”, two institutions aided by the Federal government to provide low-cost loans to those who were credit risks and the banks could keep a transaction fee. In addition banks would also aggregate these sub-prime loans into packages that were sold to investors. And for whatever reason the rating agencies would give these mortgage-backed securities high ratings, up to AAA, and pension plans and other investors were lapping them up. House prices climbed. Sales of new homes sky-rocketed. The housing industry was booming because of the high volume and the fact that selling prices were far in excess of costs.
Using a Macro approach, could you have predicted what would happen if prices should show a slight decline? Could you have predicted that speculators who had no equity in the homes would a) stop buying and b) turn their inventories of houses back to the banks as the house values dropped below the loan amount? Could you have predicted that bankruptcies would sky-rocket as the banks had to foreclose when borrowers who couldn’t afford their houses, an asset that was declining rapidly in value?
Could you have predicted that house prices would fall below the cost of construction due huge inventories of empty houses being sold at bankruptcy prices? Could you have predicted that new house construction would fall precipitously as the massive excess inventories were worked off? Could you have predicted that most of the home construction workers would be out of work? Could you have estimated how much unemployment would increase as a result?
Could you have predicted major banking problems? Could you have predicted that the recession would be lengthy as the home-building industry had no demand while the inventories were being worked off? Could you have predicted what is now known as the “Great Recession” but should be known as the “Sub-prime loan debacle”?
My point here is that the economists with all their theories and models never saw what was coming. Is it possible that you as a non-expert could have foreseen the “Great Recession”?
Is it conceivable that you can predict global warming better than the climate scientists by taking a reasoned “Macro” look at what drives temperatures?
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 10, 2015 4:29:33 GMT
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Post by magellan on Aug 11, 2015 4:13:38 GMT
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