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Post by glennkoks on Sept 7, 2015 2:11:28 GMT
Nobody want's to say it but it's true. We export trillions of dollars worth of greenbacks in exchange for oil. Nobody else (for the time being) has that "Exorbitant Privilege". I guess it works right up until it does not anymore. The only thing that has kept the wolf away from our door is the rest of the world is just a little more jacked up than we are.
However, sooner or later (most likely later) the world is not going to buy into the petrodollar anymore. And that is when it is going to look like 1929 again. Only much, much worse.
I am pretty certain on the above, just uncertain on the date. Is it one month? One year? 10 years or 30? Sooner or later the chickens are coming home to roost.
Anybody else want to commit to a timeline on our economic demise?
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 7, 2015 4:02:12 GMT
Undoubtably the future will provide many surprises. Regarding a change to a new global currency such as the proposed UN's 'Special Drawing Rights' ... seems that could be matched by a North American 'Special Eating Rights' (the Graindollar?) ... i.e., if you want to eat, then give us that special draw! Just pointing out that we're not totally without leverage.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 7, 2015 18:06:58 GMT
Nobody want's to say it but it's true. We export trillions of dollars worth of greenbacks in exchange for oil. Nobody else (for the time being) has that "Exorbitant Privilege". I guess it works right up until it does not anymore. The only thing that has kept the wolf away from our door is the rest of the world is just a little more jacked up than we are. However, sooner or later (most likely later) the world is not going to buy into the petrodollar anymore. And that is when it is going to look like 1929 again. Only much, much worse. I am pretty certain on the above, just uncertain on the date. Is it one month? One year? 10 years or 30? Sooner or later the chickens are coming home to roost. Anybody else want to commit to a timeline on our economic demise? The world will stop buying into the petrodollar when oil and its derivatives are no longer the main motive power for industry and transport. That is the next main industrial invention that will upend the world economy as it has been for the last century. It is _not_ the electric car as they are merely remotely polluting vehicles and require the base-load supply from oil and coal. Perhaps fuel cells will become the thing or even low temperature fusion cells. We don't know yet and as Arthur C Clarke said: " Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic" in our hubris we believe the Kelvin fallacy but there are plenty of things to be discovered and invented yet. The economy that manufactures that new technology will be the possessor of the new world reserve currency.
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 7, 2015 19:59:12 GMT
In fact the era of directed research is likely to stifle this process.
If someone believes that they can predict the future they are almost certain to miss the big move.
We need clusters of multiple technology development centers racing to bring the next round of energy cost falls.
Energy cost relative income defines wealth. This will not change.
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Post by flearider on Sept 7, 2015 20:45:09 GMT
and when your try to take the petro dollar away you get bombed or bribed ..
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 7, 2015 23:49:02 GMT
Nobody want's to say it but it's true. We export trillions of dollars worth of greenbacks in exchange for oil. Nobody else (for the time being) has that "Exorbitant Privilege". I guess it works right up until it does not anymore. The only thing that has kept the wolf away from our door is the rest of the world is just a little more jacked up than we are. However, sooner or later (most likely later) the world is not going to buy into the petrodollar anymore. And that is when it is going to look like 1929 again. Only much, much worse. I am pretty certain on the above, just uncertain on the date. Is it one month? One year? 10 years or 30? Sooner or later the chickens are coming home to roost. Anybody else want to commit to a timeline on our economic demise? The world will stop buying into the petrodollar when oil and its derivatives are no longer the main motive power for industry and transport. That is the next main industrial invention that will upend the world economy as it has been for the last century. It is _not_ the electric car as they are merely remotely polluting vehicles and require the base-load supply from oil and coal. Perhaps fuel cells will become the thing or even low temperature fusion cells. We don't know yet and as Arthur C Clarke said: " Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic" in our hubris we believe the Kelvin fallacy but there are plenty of things to be discovered and invented yet. The economy that manufactures that new technology will be the possessor of the new world reserve currency. Nautonnier, We are probably decades away from oil being replaced as the main motive power. But do we have decades before the Yuan or some other form of basket currency replaces the Greenback on top of the hill? It's going to be difficult just servicing our debt if we don't stop spending now. I do not subscribe to impending doom and gloom. But sooner or later the Chinese will get the transition from a 3rd world Communist economy to the number one capitalistic economy. And I seriously doubt they will let us have the Exorbitant Privilege any longer than they absolutely have to.
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 8, 2015 0:30:35 GMT
I see it happening within 10 years. No one wants to talk about the serious problem prevelent in the US govt. Brought to us by folks who think you get something for nothing.
IF the EPA rules on CO2 stand, that in itself is a death knell.
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Post by Andrew on Sept 8, 2015 5:36:32 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 8, 2015 14:21:09 GMT
We are probably decades away from oil being replaced as the main motive power. But do we have decades before the Yuan or some other form of basket currency replaces the Greenback on top of the hill? It's going to be difficult just servicing our debt if we don't stop spending now. I think that the replacement of oil could be a lot faster if the replacement can literally replace hydrocarbon fuels. The difficult areas are energy density and associated portability. So aircraft and private vehicles can use the the replacement; without that capability the new energy method will not be accepted. A portable high power output cold fusion system would fit the bill.
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 8, 2015 18:56:15 GMT
Not sure the 7.75 is so likely to be the future.
The talk is 3 to 5 and that will delay cross over some years. Regarding oil pricing in US$ nobody trades in their country in US$ they convert and buy their services normally, its just a comparable valuation method for a fungible commodity. You could use sea shells but they also have issues like the US$ that make the process even less trustable.
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 9, 2015 2:12:28 GMT
Code,
Is the "Real GDP Growth" in the graph provided actually "Real"?
Or data provided by the Chinese? Because there is a difference.
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Post by walnut on Sept 9, 2015 20:33:23 GMT
Oh I have been thinking about it every time I read about China. When the Chinese per capita GDP becomes higher than that of Dominican Republic (according to the IMF, it is not) I will still not be be impressed. GDP would still need to rise 50% from that just to catch up with Mexico.
China is a very large political division, a very large taxing authority, and carries bargaining power because of its size. But I see no reason to be impressed with Chinese wealth.
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 10, 2015 18:53:41 GMT
Surprised?? This goes on all the time.
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Post by walnut on Sept 11, 2015 13:58:40 GMT
I heard on public radio this morning, Christopher Balding, economics professor at Peking University said that China's GDP numbers are a total fiction, not taken seriously by the local politicians. He said that the actual number is not 7% but around 1 or 2% (I assume he means right now).
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 12, 2015 15:22:59 GMT
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