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Post by walnut on Feb 16, 2016 13:20:15 GMT
GDP will have to grow us out of the problem, and that seems like a slim hope.
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Post by walnut on Feb 16, 2016 16:23:02 GMT
The monthly SP500 chart is just saying, odds are a big crash is extremely imminent. Maybe this time will be different.... don't think so
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 16, 2016 16:49:11 GMT
Read this morning that the Fed is pretty intent on raising interest rates twice this year. As a result, dollar is up and bonds are down. I don't understand why the Fed seems to be always late to the party, and with their actions they help the swing be greater in each direction than it would have been had they just left policy in place.
The chart above is very sobering.
I agree, that GDP growth is NOT going to get anyone out of this hole. It has taken years to get here, and it seems that folks keep handing new shovels to the guys at the bottom.
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Post by walnut on Feb 16, 2016 17:01:55 GMT
Since it was fake money, maybe it will also be fake losses.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 16, 2016 20:13:47 GMT
If I wanted America to fail I'd make sure our education system didn't work.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 16, 2016 21:18:08 GMT
One knows the Math skill set is bad when folks ignore the implications of continued over spending by Govt.
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Post by walnut on Feb 16, 2016 23:39:57 GMT
The US spends more on education per capita and more as a percent of GDP than any other country. So spending money does not equal good test scores.
Parent involvement is the answer.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 17, 2016 13:52:01 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 17, 2016 21:25:13 GMT
Interesting article on looming bear market.... The Felder Report"“There are early signs… In 2006 and 2007, which I think most of us would agree was not a down period in terms of speculation, corporations issued $700 billion in debt over that two-year period. In 2013 and 2014 they’ve already issued $1.1 trillion in debt. 50% more than they did in the ’06, ’07 period over the same time period. But more disturbing to me if you look at the debt that is being issued in the last two years back in 0’6, ’07 28% of that debt was B rated. Today 71% of the debt that’s been issued in the last 2 years is B rated. So, not only have we issued a lot more debt, we’re doing so at much less standards.”"
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Post by walnut on Feb 18, 2016 2:29:31 GMT
Buy VXX as a hedge, since there has been no decay these days as the market is slumping and the VIX futures are not in a steep contango. It makes a good hedge because the returns distribution is non normal, skewed to the right. You might even make money on it.
When contango comes back it won't work well, VXX will resume its fairly steep decay. But if contango comes back you won't be as worried about your investments anyway.
The trouble is the best thing you can usually do is reduce your exposure to the stock market. Hedges usually don't work as well as just reducing your holdings.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 18, 2016 4:02:58 GMT
One stock that is a good stock, in relation to stability is Otter Tail (OTTR) or Excel Energy.
Otter Tail has a 4.3% return right now. Good little company.
Excel is a larger utility, but also a decent return with limited down side exposure.
3M is also a pretty safe bet.
ADM is also pretty good. Not sure there isn't some more downside risk yet tho. But overall a well run company that has exhibited good growth over time.
One other is Verizon to look at.
Just my thoughts.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 18, 2016 5:36:43 GMT
Im actually considering some gold That has another $400 or so to retreat.
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Post by acidohm on Feb 18, 2016 9:31:23 GMT
If anyone wants to invest in my plumbing co. I guarantee ill do well out of it!!
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Post by walnut on Feb 18, 2016 13:29:26 GMT
Im actually considering some gold That has another $400 or so to retreat. I agree, just don't do it, while who knows it might work, it seems really risky to buy gold. It is still at ethereal levels and could easily (probably) come way down again as it has for most of the last several years.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 19, 2016 0:01:27 GMT
Naut, Any thoughts how to protect retirement funds? That is not an easy question. A lot depends on how long before you want to retire and what the conditions are in your state. Long term investments such as property - buy to let - can work well dependent on the tax rules where you are. Short term you can get quite severe haircuts. Gold is good if you expect the currency to suddenly crash in the way the Reich Mark crashed in the 30's. At the moment there has not been a Zimbabwe level inflation of the dollar - but with the debt at the moment who knows. Silver is similarly a long term bet but against catastrophic currency crashes. In Europe they have come up with what they call 'bail in' rules. Effectively if you have an amount more than say 80K in the bank and the bank goes belly up you will lose anything above the 80K. So it is really not a good idea to hold cash in the bank anywhere in the EU. The entire investment industry is a minefield.
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