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Post by neilhamp on May 28, 2012 5:14:18 GMT
The table below is taken from the NSIDC site nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2011/09/Previous minimum Arctic sea ice extents Year Minimum Ice Extent Date in millions of square kilometers 2007 4.17 September 16 2008 4.55 September 18 2009 5.10 September 12 2010 4.60 September 19 2011 4.33 September 9
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Post by trbixler on May 28, 2012 13:10:40 GMT
Random guess 4.6
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Post by sigurdur on May 28, 2012 16:49:31 GMT
Random guess slightly below 4.0
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Post by throttleup on May 28, 2012 17:00:19 GMT
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Post by neilhamp on May 29, 2012 8:14:08 GMT
4 out of 6 votes, so far, think that ice extent for 2012 will exceed 2011 levels
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Post by throttleup on May 29, 2012 12:14:34 GMT
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Post by neilhamp on May 29, 2012 19:54:00 GMT
The heaviest polar ice in more than a decade could postpone the start of offshore oil drilling in the Arctic Ocean until the beginning of August, a delay of up to two weeks, Shell Alaska officials said. phys.org/news/2012-05-heavy-ice-shell-alaska-arctic.htmlLooks like there is a lot of ice up there!
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Post by magellan on May 30, 2012 1:17:48 GMT
The heaviest polar ice in more than a decade could postpone the start of offshore oil drilling in the Arctic Ocean until the beginning of August, a delay of up to two weeks, Shell Alaska officials said. phys.org/news/2012-05-heavy-ice-shell-alaska-arctic.htmlLooks like there is a lot of ice up there! Two years ago in April, Mark "death spiral" Serreze said the Bering Sea ice freeze was a result of several weeks of "unusual weather" and that it wouldn't last. Now in 2012 you can hear a pin drop. I wonder why Thermostat didn't note the record Alaskan ice and cold. If he'd actually read the science he claims to love so much, he'd know the Bering Sea situation is a result of the PDO switch to the cold phase that has been occurring for the last few years; one of the "mythical" cycles he says doesn't exist. Next comes the AMO switch, and we won't be hearing much from the Arctic doom-mongers for many years. Also, keep in mind there is a correlation between the AMO and Arctic weather/climate. Note what the AMO was in 2006/2007 prior to the Big Melt (actually was caused by wind patterns more than anything else) and compare to 2011/2012. I don't bet on Arctic ice, but unless the Bering Sea has a warming effect of the Eastern Arctic region, and I suppose that could be the case, 2012 isn't looking that promising for breaking 2007. The track record for the "experts" predicting an ice free arctic every year since 2007 isn't something to hang our hat on. Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts. Much can happen between now and September, but really, this is NOT setting up for "record" melt. weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif [/img]
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Post by sigurdur on May 30, 2012 2:44:57 GMT
magellan: The reason I think this year is going to be very low is because the "exit" area of the Arctic is not well frozen nor stable.
This will allow for very rapid expulsion of ice...even old ice.
It depends on the winds.......but in my humble opinion this is a classic setup for a very low ice extent come Sept.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on May 30, 2012 16:54:22 GMT
Like Mr. Graywolf likes to say, the "Fram Tram" is open, and the winds appear to be such that lots of ice will be lost by expulsion into the North Atlantic. Despite almost a month of at or below normal temps north of 80, the Arctic is just beginning to react to the PDO shift. We'll see at or near record lows this summer, before a slow increase in mins begins next year or the summer of 2014. 3.95 million sq. km minimum this summer.
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Post by thermostat on May 31, 2012 1:40:37 GMT
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Post by thermostat on May 31, 2012 3:30:28 GMT
throttleup, One graph is interesting, of course, but Arctic Sea Ice aficionados love to see 'all' of the data. Arctic Sea Ice Graphs, sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/at the "Arctic Sea Ice Blog", conveniently brings all of the data together in one place. (Arctic Sea Ice Junkies just want to know, after all).
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Post by throttleup on May 31, 2012 11:51:08 GMT
throttleup, One graph is interesting, of course, but Arctic Sea Ice aficionados love to see 'all' of the data. Arctic Sea Ice Graphs, sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/at the "Arctic Sea Ice Blog", conveniently brings all of the data together in one place. (Arctic Sea Ice Junkies just want to know, after all). Dr. T, Thanks for the link. Even if all the ice disappears this year I think humanity will still survive. But I'm a pessimist.
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Post by magellan on Jun 1, 2012 13:27:57 GMT
throttleup, One graph is interesting, of course, but Arctic Sea Ice aficionados love to see 'all' of the data. Arctic Sea Ice Graphs, sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/at the "Arctic Sea Ice Blog", conveniently brings all of the data together in one place. (Arctic Sea Ice Junkies just want to know, after all). One graph is interesting, of course, but Arctic Sea Ice aficionados love to see 'all' of the data. Strange, you haven't weighed in on the Bering Sea ice or the very cold North Pacific. Mark "death spiral" Serreze, an official Arctic Sea Ice aficionado has said the Bering Sea is where "all the action is" and that March 2010 ice in that region was just a fluke. Now it is June 2012. Bering Sea ice was 50% above normal. What does it all mean Dr. Thermostat? If you love to see 'all' the data, did you somehow miss this? Apparently you missed the very cold SST in that entire region as well, a result of the mythical cycles (PDO in this case) you say don't exist. The winds are what drive the ice out of the Eastern Arctic, not "global warming". Nobody predicted the unusual wind patterns in 2007, and still cannot, so whatever bets are for new record low are based on WAG; there is nothing scientific about it. History is replete with botched predictions by "experts" of Arctic ice, including every year since 2007. Truth is, nobody knows what 2012 will bring, but I will bet it won't be ice free Interesting wouldn't you agree? Shouldn't this be part of 'all' the data you so love?
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Jun 1, 2012 23:29:15 GMT
I think right around 4.4. On the other hand, I live up here, and the weather has been weird. I can't really describe it except to say that while the valleys have greened up nicely this spring, albeit weeks late, all of the mountains are still very, very cold. Spring still has not reached my house. (2050ft) And there has not been a day where my furnace has not been running. I have used up more then 5 cords of wood since the heating season began, and I am down to less then a cord ready to go, with one cord seasoning. In the past I have cut my own firewood, but this year has put me waaaay behind. I will probably have 8 cords delivered. (in rounds) And take it form there. I hope this is an El-nino year. We need some heat up here!!!
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