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Post by thermostat on Jun 2, 2012 2:39:01 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Jun 2, 2012 5:31:15 GMT
I will go with 4.3. The lower end of the range but not a record.
Dontgetoutmuch, sigurdur and I were both discussing the "weirdness" of the weather this year. It seem "weird" extends from Alaska, to North Dakota down to Texas. On a one through 10 weirdness scale I would give this year about an 8.5.
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Post by neilhamp on Jun 2, 2012 6:07:42 GMT
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Post by magellan on Jun 2, 2012 8:46:38 GMT
I think right around 4.4. On the other hand, I live up here, and the weather has been weird. I can't really describe it except to say that while the valleys have greened up nicely this spring, albeit weeks late, all of the mountains are still very, very cold. Spring still has not reached my house. (2050ft) And there has not been a day where my furnace has not been running. I have used up more then 5 cords of wood since the heating season began, and I am down to less then a cord ready to go, with one cord seasoning. In the past I have cut my own firewood, but this year has put me waaaay behind. I will probably have 8 cords delivered. (in rounds) And take it form there. I hope this is an El-nino year. We need some heat up here!!! www.pbs.org/saf/1404/segments/1404-1.htmScientists say Alaska is like a canary in a coal mine, foreshadowing the types of changes we can expect for the rest of the world. Ah yes, we should see it any day now: "Scientists say Alaska pointing to new Ice Age". NOT!! See, "experts" should be referred to because they are more knowledgeable than the average Joe, except when they're wrong and amnesia sets in. Since the normal natural cycles and ebbs and flows of climate have been replaced by linear extrapolations of weather events, we'll just have to be patient for this era to pass as well. But we still have the internet and all the babbling idiots (scientists) statements can be retrieved. In AGW climate "science", when the canary-in-the-coalmine doesn't kick the bucket, they move it to a new mine. After 30 years of animal abuse by AGW promoters, the canary somehow survives. Alaska is going off the radar. Hurricanes have lost their mojo, even though in 2005 Trenberth told us it was a sign of things to come. Result? The longest period on record for no landfall hurricanes in the U.S. Be sure though if one hits this year it will be hailed as more evidence of "weird weather" surely in support of AGW. The focus is on the Arctic now days, but in five years, as the AMO continues its downward trek, we'll have all but forgotten about the Great Arctic Meltdown of 2007 and subsequent "expert" failed predictions thereafter, and be treated to a new "coalmine", maybe even revisit an old one. Poor canary. There is nothing new about warnings of Arctic doom, but some think history began in 1979 and the sum of climate change is condensed in their recollection of weather in their lifetime. For many, that is less than 30 years. BTW, whatever happened to Hansen, Trenberth and their media lapdog fellow travelers trip to Antarctica? They were supposed to report back on how unbelievably warm it is there. I desperately want a climate expert to explain this: We're told Greenland, which is still part of the Arctic as I recall, is warmer than at any time in the last 2000/8000/_________ years. Did the Vikings have such favorable weather to grow crops? ROFL
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 2, 2012 12:40:18 GMT
magellan: Anyone who tells you that Greenland is all of a sudden super warm has not read the literature and they are flat out either lying, or speaking out of ignorance.
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Post by trbixler on Jun 2, 2012 13:39:50 GMT
"Heavy ice could delay start of Shell Alaska's Arctic drilling" "Unveiling a newly refurbished ice-class rig that is poised to begin drilling two exploratory wells this summer in the Beaufort Sea, Shell executives said Friday that the unusually robust sea ice would further narrow what already is a tight window for operations. The company's $4-billion program is designed to measure the extent of what could be the United States' most important new inventory of oil and gas. Shell has pledged to end its first season of exploratory drilling by Oct. 31 in the Beaufort Sea and 38 days earlier in the more remote Chukchi Sea to remain within the relatively ice-free summer season. Meeting with reporters and Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, on board the Kulluk drilling rig in the Seattle shipyards, Shell's vice president for Alaska operations, Pete Slaiby, said the company had given up on its controversial attempt to win permission from the federal government to extend Chukchi drilling though October as well. "Not this year. I think it's a done deal," he said. The summer ice melt in the Arctic has often reached record levels in recent years in what many scientists believe is a sign of climate change. But this year a high pressure zone over the coast of Alaska, low winter temperatures and certain ocean currents have combined to bring unusually large amounts of ice not only to Alaska's northern coast, but farther south in the Bering Sea as well, National Weather Service officials said. "I do think it's going to be a slow breakup this year," Kathleen Cole, sea ice program leader for the weather service, told the Los Angeles Times. The result is that while Canadian waters in the far northern Atlantic have relatively low ice levels, Alaska is an iceberg - at least for now. " phys.org/news/2012-05-heavy-ice-shell-alaska-arctic.html
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Post by thermostat on Jun 4, 2012 1:04:18 GMT
Neilamp, I agree that the nsidc numbers are a useful standard. To summarize the minima from recent years again (million sq km for minimum Arctic Sea Ice extent, and date of minimum): 2007 4.17 September 16, 2007 2008 4.55 September 18, 2008 2009 5.10 September 12, 2009 2010 4.60 September 19, 2010 2011 4.33 September 9. 2011
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Post by thermostat on Jun 4, 2012 1:25:42 GMT
Just a couple more comments on the specific source for comparison for the Solar Cycle 24 Discussion Forum 2012 Arctic Sea Ice Extent poll. I agree that the NSIDC data is a useful standard and this data is used by ARCUS, the Arctic Reaseach Consortium of the US for their annual survey www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.phpYou will note that ARCUS actually uses the "mean arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers)" rather than the minimal extent. The monthly mean will be greater than the absolute minimum extent (as listed in the prevous post), so be aware to avoid confusion up front. Another alternative measure of the Arctic Sea Ice melt that is commonly tracked is the Cryoshpere Today Arctic Sea Ice Area. arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.pngAs can be seen from the Sea Ice minima listed here, 2011 set a new record for 'least ice in the Arcitc Sea' by this criterion. •2005: 4.09 million square km2 •2006: 4.03 million square km2 •2007: 2.92 million square km2 •2008: 3.00 million square km2 •2009: 3.42 million square km2 •2010: 3.07 million square km2 •2011: 2.90 million square km2 The difference between extent and area is due to the concentration and distribution of the ice. This feature, like extent, is substantially dependent on weather during the melt season. For example, summer weather patterns that tend to disperse the ice have the effect in increasing extent. However, distributing the ice into relatively warm water may also have the effect of facilitating melting, reducing ice area.
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Post by thermostat on Jun 4, 2012 1:41:45 GMT
A final factor that is not addressed here is Arctic Sea Ice Volume; ie. the total amount of ice, factoring in thickness, not just area. While multiple lines of evidence, such as long term reduction in the extent of multi-year ice, indicate that Arctic Sea Ice volume has been in continuing and even acellerating decline over the past century; and especially the past half century, there is not presently a useful data source that could be used for tracking predictions of the effect of the present summer melt on Arctic Sea Ice volume.
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Post by neilhamp on Jun 4, 2012 18:39:15 GMT
Thanks for the clarification, Thermostat I was somewhat mistified by all the various numbers I hope I have chosen the right standard
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Post by magellan on Jun 5, 2012 2:57:45 GMT
A final factor that is not addressed here is Arctic Sea Ice Volume; ie. the total amount of ice, factoring in thickness, not just area. While multiple lines of evidence, such as long term reduction in the extent of multi-year ice, indicate that Arctic Sea Ice volume has been in continuing and even acellerating decline over the past century; and especially the past half century, there is not presently a useful data source that could be used for tracking predictions of the effect of the present summer melt on Arctic Sea Ice volume. is.gd/byYZwxThe map below shows the “2007 record low” Arctic ice extent, and the red dot indicates where a Russian boat sailed to in 1935 – in ice-free water.
Apparently there was less ice in the Eastern Arctic in 1935 than there was during the all-time-record-lowest-Armageddon-we-are-all-doomed-irreversible-tipping-point summer of 2007. “Remarkable Changes”
“Our generation is living in a period when remarkable changes are taking place almost everywhere throughout the world,” writes Professor L. Berg, of the Soviet Academy of Sciences. ”‘Certainly these widely distributed phenomena cannot be due to the action of the Gulf Stream, which, however, naturally receives its share of the greater general warmth.” The slow thawing of the Arctic is given as a partial explanation for the record voyages of Soviet ice-breakers to northern latitudes, which have never before been reached by navigating vessels. The Sadko in 1935, in ice- free water of the North Kara Sea, steamed to 82 degrees, 42 minutes of northern latitude—an all-time record.
See the red dot in the midst of the 2007 "record" melt?
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Post by magellan on Jun 5, 2012 3:02:49 GMT
A final factor that is not addressed here is Arctic Sea Ice Volume; ie. the total amount of ice, factoring in thickness, not just area. While multiple lines of evidence, such as long term reduction in the extent of multi-year ice, indicate that Arctic Sea Ice volume has been in continuing and even acellerating decline over the past century; and especially the past half century, there is not presently a useful data source that could be used for tracking predictions of the effect of the present summer melt on Arctic Sea Ice volume. Even more impressive is that their data shows an ice-free September by 2015Where is Graywhale flouting the Cryosat data which was supposed to validate an ice free Arctic in the next couple years according to PIOMAS? Hmm?
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Post by magellan on Jun 5, 2012 3:06:43 GMT
A final factor that is not addressed here is Arctic Sea Ice Volume; ie. the total amount of ice, factoring in thickness, not just area. While multiple lines of evidence, such as long term reduction in the extent of multi-year ice, indicate that Arctic Sea Ice volume has been in continuing and even acellerating decline over the past century; and especially the past half century, there is not presently a useful data source that could be used for tracking predictions of the effect of the present summer melt on Arctic Sea Ice volume. Bet you didn't know there actually is data that dates back beyond the anomalously cold and high ice extent in 1979 (beginning of earth history and "normal" ice extent for Ice Warmologists). Don't feel bad, I didn't realize it either. From the first IPCC report 1990: is.gd/3k4Qg0
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Post by magellan on Jun 5, 2012 3:11:34 GMT
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Post by neilhamp on Jun 5, 2012 7:45:32 GMT
I note that WUWT is running a similar Arctic sea ice poll His readers have come up with a figure of 4.9, which has been submited to the ARCUS site This compares with 4.61 which was the September mean for 2011 i.e. +0.3 on 2011
For clarification Thermostat has already pointed out that:- "ARCUS actually uses the mean arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers) rather than the minimal extent. The monthly mean will be greater than the absolute minimum extent, so be aware to avoid confusion up front."
Our poll refers to the absolute sea ice minimum which occurs in September For rough comparison with WUWT 4.63 would be +0.3 on the 2011 absolute minimum For the record WUWT readers overestimated the sea ice minimum last year by about 0.3 Anthony Watts asked his readers to be more cautious this year when cosidering their forcast
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